Williams: Brand New Day

The Pittsburgh Pirates upgraded their bullpen at the deadline, building what looks like a contending-quality group.

You’ve got to give credit to Ben Cherington.

The Pittsburgh Pirates General Manager was faced with a glaring need at the MLB Trade Deadline.

Bullpen help.

The Pirates bullpen entered the trade deadline tied for the sixth most blown saves in baseball. They ranked 17th in reliever WAR, 17th in FIP, 18th in Win Probability Added, and 23rd in RE24.

One reliever wasn’t going to be enough.

The Pirates needed to overhaul their bullpen.

Cherington did just that, adding four relievers ahead of the deadline, including arguably the best reliever who was available on the market.

Luke Weaver was the main return.

The Pirates added Weaver in their first splash on deadline day, getting one of the best relievers in the game this season.

Weaver has allowed one earned run since the end of April, spanning 30 appearances. That type of shut-down work is the exact opposite of what the Pirates have experienced from their own group this season.

Weaver ranks fourth of all MLB relievers in WPA, 12th in RE24, and is top 20 in fWAR. His addition gives the Pirates an anchor they’ve sorely needed all season.

Following the Weaver trade, the Pirates added two more relievers at the buzzer.

Veteran right-hander Kirby Yates was added from the Angels. Lake Bachar was added from the Marlins.

Yates is 39-years-old, but he’s still a dominant reliever. His 30.5% strikeout rate ranks 23rd out of 267 MLB relievers with 20+ innings. The only Pirates reliever with a better rate is Mason Montgomery.

Yates has limited opponents to a .196 average against. His WPA and RE24 have been poor, but he’s unlikely to remain pitching in the 9th inning like he was with the Angels.

I love the chase rate stat when evaluating pitchers. If you can get opponents to swing outside of the strike zone consistently, you’re forcing them to make bad decisions. Yates ranks 21st in chase rate out of that group of 267 relievers. The only other Pirates reliever in the top 50 is Weaver.

Bachar is a quality middle reliever who ranks 95th percentile for breaking stuff, featuring four secondary pitches with a 30% whiff rate or higher. He’s put up average-to-better numbers the last two seasons, with positive WPA and RE24 results.

A day before the deadline, the Pirates added an interesting reliever in Camilo Doval. The hard-throwing right-hander is a change of scenery candidate, with most of his poor results this season coming in Yankee Stadium. When he wasn’t allowing home runs in New York, he was posting a sub-2.00 ERA.

Outside of Yates, the Pirates have these relievers for multiple seasons. Weaver is under contract in 2027, Bachar has four years of control remaining, and Doval is arbitration eligible one final time.

Brand New Bullpen

Let’s recap the new bullpen, because it’s massively different from where it has been all season.

• Luke Weaver is the new anchor, coming to the Pirates as one of the best relievers in the game this season.

• Mason Montgomery has been the best reliever for the Pirates this season, and an emerging late inning arm. They don’t need to rely on him as much with Weaver being added.

• Gregory Soto can return to a role that is better suited for him as a 7th/8th inning guy, versus being pushed into being the team’s closer.

• Kirby Yates, Lake Bachar, and Camilo Doval provide a serious boost to the middle relief group.

• Yohan Ramirez has been one of the better middle relievers for the Pirates, and now no longer stands out as the only option who doesn’t make you hold your breath.

• Wilber Dotel rounds it out as a long-relief option who is having an impressive rookie season, and who can now just be a bonus.

• Evan Sisk was one of the better relievers this season before his injury. He’s currently rehabbing, and his return could push Dotel to a depth role.

• All of the depth options the Pirates were relying upon to be regulars — Brandon Eisert, Noah Murdock, Isaac Mattson, Ron Marinaccio — can now go back to being depth, versus being the best of the group.

The Pirates added Eisert and Marinaccio in trades during the month of July, but those were lottery tickets. Those moves addressed the depth of the team.

Weaver, Yates, Bachar, and Dovel are serious additions. This group not only helps the late innings, but gives the Pirates a legitimate middle relief group to depend upon.

By adding at the top, the Pirates end up pushing every existing reliever into a better role, down to where any production from the depth group is a bonus, instead of required to keep the team contending.

Prospect Rankings

The prospect return for this bullpen upgrade wasn’t significant.

Sammy Stafura was traded for Weaver, with the Pirates getting cash in the deal. That was the biggest prospect haul out of all four trades.

Buy low and sell high is the timeless concept of any market. The Pirates did exactly that with Stafura.

One year ago, Stafura was a lottery ticket received from the Reds when the Pirates salary dumped Ke’Bryan Hayes. Stafura broke out over the last month, hitting 14 home runs in July and starting to show some serious power.

The Pirates sold at the peak of his value, getting not only the best reliever on the market, but getting that reliever at a financial savings. Maybe Stafura continues trending up with more power going forward. Konnor Griffin being the long-term shortstop in Pittsburgh means the Pirates don’t need to wait around to depend on a sustained Stafura breakout.

Bachar and Doval both cost multiple prospects.

The Pirates traded three prospects for Bachar, led in my rankings by Hyun Seung Lee. The middle infielder had the best hitting season for the FCL Pirates, and was a top 30 prospect after displaying some nice raw power potential. Lee was the third-best prospect the Pirates traded, but their need was immediate bullpen help, not long-term lottery tickets from rookie ball.

The Marlins also received Brian Sanchez and Brandan Bidois. The Pirates got Sanchez last year as part of the David Bednar trade. I wasn’t high on Sanchez, with concerns that his numbers this year were massively inflated by Greensboro’s home park. He might have been a top 50 candidate in the system, but the odds he’s more than a depth player in the Majors one day seem small at this point.

Bidois was one part of the reliever churn for the Pirates, and he didn’t capture a long-term role. He was on the injured list in Triple-A at the time of the trade. After all of the new additions, it was unlikely he would have been in the mix the rest of the season.

The second-best prospect the Pirates traded went in the Doval move. Omar Alfonzo was traded from a strong catching prospect group in the middle of the system. The Pirates also sent outfielder Luis Cruz, who was a lottery ticket from the DSL.

Alfonzo was a top 20 prospect, and because the Pirates parted with him, they ended up getting Doval at a financial discount, with cash coming back in the deal.

Finally, the Pirates traded right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Robinson for Yates. Earlier in the season, the Pirates added Robinson in the Alika Williams trade with the Athletics.

Robinson was getting hit hard in Altoona, but had interesting stuff. He was unlikely to be more than a middle reliever in the future, and is exactly the type of prospect you trade for immediate bullpen help. The pair of deals is almost like the Pirates flipping Williams for Yates.

On the other side of the deadline, the Pirates traded Hunter Stratton, after previously designating him for assignment with the addition of Doval. In return they got Triple-A right-hander Andrew Moore.

The prospect value of Moore is similar to the value of Robinson. Moore has excellent strikeout numbers, but horrible walk totals, with over a walk per inning. He’s an upper-level lottery ticket, and could become an MLB depth option if he can ever fix his control. That shouldn’t be seen as a high probability scenario.

In total, the Pirates didn’t pay much in prospect cost for this bullpen upgrade.

• One top ten guy in Sammy Stafura.

• One top 20 guy in Omar Alfonzo.

• One top 30 guy in Hyun Seung Lee.

• Two potential top 50 guys in Brian Sanchez and Kyle Robinson.

• A DSL lottery ticket in Luis Cruz.

• Upper-level relief depth in Brandan Bidois.

• And they got back an upper-level lottery ticket in Andrew Moore.

Most of the prospect capital they traded were in deals that brought back a different type of capital.

Money Matters

I’ve gotten the sense that Ben Cherington has been working on a shoestring budget all season.

That’s not just at the deadline.

This is a team that didn’t hire a scouting director this season, after their previous director was hired away last October.

They quickly parted with expensive MLB bench players earlier this season, like Alika Williams and Joey Bart, saving a few million in the process.

They traded the 34th overall pick for injury depth, and traded $500,000 in international spending capabilities to have Marinaccio on their roster for a few weeks, before designating him for assignment following the deadline moves.

The pair of July trades led to a reduction of nearly $3.5 million in amateur spending ability.

They’ve yet to claim a player off waivers this year, and have sold several players in trades to other teams.

At the deadline, there seemed to be some budget prioritization.

The Mets sent the Pirates $2 million this year and $6 million next year for Weaver, which might have incentivized the Pirates to part with Stafura. Weaver’s two-year, $22 million deal comes with a $3 million signing bonus that is covered by the Mets.

After the money sent over in the trade, the Pirates get Weaver for a little less than $5.5 million combined through the 2027 season. They not only get a top reliever, but they get that reliever at a huge financial value.

Doval came with savings that lowered his 2026 cost to the Pirates down to $750,000, when his $6.1 million deal would have otherwise had them paying a few million down the stretch. That might explain why Alfonzo was sent away in that deal.

Bachar is under a league minimum deal, so his cost to the team down the stretch is a few hundred thousand, which is similar to what a depth option from the minors would make. The quality of production is better.

Yates was the only financial addition, being owed around $1.5 million for the remainder of the season.

In total, the Pirates spent a little less than $3 million on all four new relievers for the remainder of the 2026 season.

Even if you add Jacob Gonzalez, Eisert, and Marinaccio from the July trades, the Pirates increased their payroll by around the same $3.5 million amount that they trimmed from the amateur signing budget with their draft and international bonus pool trades.

I don’t think that’s a coincidence.

You could argue that they didn’t add new money to the budget with these deadline deals.

They just reappropriated funds from the amateur budget to immediate big league needs.

Weaver is affordable next season. Bachar will be making the league minimum again. They’ll have to make a decision on whether to tender Doval, who is due an arbitration raise over his $6.1 million this year.

According to the updated payroll tracker, the Pirates have $58 million guaranteed in 2027, which is nearly $50 million less than what they’re spending now.

This all ignores the elephant in the room of a potential lockout, or a potential change to the economic system that would allow the Pirates to operate without making every move fit a shoestring budget.

Right now, the shoestrongs are the reality for the Pirates.

Hitting Returns

The trade deadline only addressed the bullpen, which was needed.

The bigger additions the Pirates will receive will come when Oneil Cruz returns from the injured list in July.

Recently, Spencer Horwitz returned to replace an injured Ryan O’Hearn, keeping the Pirates offense steady after the latest injury. Cruz will be an actual boost to an offense that has remained productive even without his power bat.

If the Pirates are in the race for the playoffs in September, they could be set to see the returns of O’Hearn and Griffin during the final stretch of the season. Like with Cruz, this is the equivalent of a trade boost.

It All Comes Down to the Rotation

The biggest impact down the stretch will come from the starting rotation.

Once the strength of this team, the rotation has shown some flaws lately. It’s to the point where I even questioned whether this team was a true contender ahead of the deadline.

Even with the bullpen help, the answer to that question will rely on the rotation down the stretch.

The rotation was dealt a blow on deadline day with Mitch Keller being placed on the 60-day injured list, ending his season. The Pirates did well to keep this quiet until after the deadline, maintaining leverage in their search for relievers.

Prior to Keller’s injury, one of the best relievers the Pirates had was Carmen Mlodzinski, who is now the top candidate to move to the rotation in place of Keller. That makes the bullpen additions over the last two days even more essential.

Keller hasn’t been pitching well this season, and you wonder how much of that was the injury. Mlodzinski has been pitching well no matter the role, and in a way, this is an upgrade based on recent performances.

There are still other concerns.

Paul Skenes has struggled over the last two months.

Braxton Ashcraft is to a point where he’s throwing more innings than he’s ever thrown during a single-season.

Jared Jones has been pitching great, but he’s limited in his return from injury.

Bubba Chandler is a wild card, but the Pirates want to be in a position where his production is a bonus, and not required to contend.

I wonder how much the new bullpen might positively impact the relief group on a psychological level?

Knowing that guys like Doval, Bachar, Yates, and Weaver are backing you up allows the starting group the confidence to pitch knowing their lead will be safe, and knowing they have help to get them out of any jams. The rotation has had that level of comfort and support from the offense this year.

At this point, the Pirates have one of the best offenses in the game, and a bullpen worthy of a contender.

The performance of the rotation down the stretch will be the make or break of this team reaching the playoffs.

Final Trade Grades

One thing is certain on deadline day.

Ben Cherington did his job to turn an obvious weakness into a legitimate strength.

The Pirates have a completely new bullpen, and the quality from top to bottom is contender-level.

Cherington seems like he’s been limited financially this season, and that might not be more evident than the correlation between added salary with all July/August trades and the reduction of the amateur signing budget.

Under those constraints, he ended up getting a big win.

Now, it’s on the players, and more specifically, on the rotation to get the wins that will matter in the push for the playoffs.

Until the Pirates clinch the playoffs…

-Tim Williams