The Top Prospects on the 2026 FCL Pirates
Carlos Mateo flashed 100+ MPH velocity and elite swing and miss, while the Pirates had a few interesting hitting prospects.
Prospecting is a young man’s game.
There was a time early in my prospect writing days where I enjoyed writing about rookie league players the most.
The concept of finding the next big prospect to follow at the lowest levels means, at best, you’re going to be following that player for years wondering if they’ll make the Majors.
It’s not that I don’t enjoy following along at the progress of the lower level players. I just find myself thinking about the reality of how it will take years before anything is known. These days, I barely have the patience to look forward to the future from Triple-A players.
That said, it’s still entertaining following the lower levels, and I can’t help but naturally notice players who stand out when doing my daily coverage.
The Pirates had some interesting hitting prospects in the Florida Complex League this year. Most of those hitters got a look in Single-A Bradenton, and a few of those hitters stuck around in Bradenton for the rest of the season.
Even the best case scenarios are going to likely spend next season in Bradenton, followed by a season in Greensboro where every home run they hit is placed under the doubt of whether it was assisted by the home park.
The true test for hitters is the jump to Double-A, and most of the 2026 FCL roster won’t reach that level until 2028 at the earliest. That would be following the Esmerlyn Valdez track, which would have the 2026 FCL hitters going to Bradenton for a full season in 2027, followed by splitting 2028 between Greensboro and Altoona.
It will be two years before we get the first real test of any of the FCL hitters from this year’s roster. Until then, the prospecting exercise is identifying tools, and a lot of projection about what those tools could do if they continue working out beyond Double-A, which requires a certain level of projection that those tools will carry the prospect to Double-A.
On the pitching side, it’s a bit different, but not much.
Pitchers come with a different scouting approach than hitters. A pitcher who throws 100 MPH in the FCL is going to throw 100 MPH in Triple-A. The question is how will opposing hitters react? You don’t need to be as accurate with a 100 MPH fastball in the lower levels as you do in the upper levels.
The challenge for hitters as they move up is their reaction abilities are going to be tested against pitchers who are increasingly accurate, with sharper stuff and a wider variety of quality pitches.
The challenge for pitchers as they move up is they end up facing the hitters whose reaction abilities have been proven against sharper pitchers, and who don’t see a 100 MPH fastball or a plus breaking pitch as a rare occurrence.
Pitchers are always going to have the advantage. They’re also going to have an easier projected path up the ladder if they can command elite pitches at a young age. That’s a rare thing in rookie ball, where you see some of the worst control in baseball. When command starts to click for a pitcher this low in the system, they have a much quicker path to the big leagues.
My years of prospect coverage have left me with a unique view of baseball development. My prospect rankings aren’t going to follow the industry consensus. A small part of that is I’m less interested in hopes and dreams surrounding raw tools, and I’m more interested in the players who begin to show the ability to harness their tools in a way that produces real results which can be projected to the upper levels.
You rarely get the latter in the FCL. I don’t think there was any player on the FCL Pirates in 2026 who you can point to and say “That’s a future Major Leaguer.” And that just makes this a normal year.
There was one player who stood out to me ahead of the rest of the roster, due to continuous improvements made throughout the season, along with the quality of his raw tools.
My 2026 FCL Pirates rankings below are mostly reserved for paid subscribers, as a way to say thank you for the support as I’ve been working to build up the new Pirates Prospects while outsourcing articles to this Substack. Future rankings will also be limited to paid subscribers.
Free readers get one player, and in this case, that’s the player I’d bet on to have the best chance of reaching the big leagues.
Top of the Class
Carlos Mateo, RHP
Stats: 4.80 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 36.1% K, 29.2% BB, 0.0 HR/9, .167 BAA, 15.0 IP
Scouting: 48.1% Whiff, FB: 100.1 MPH, SL: 76.9% Whiff, 51.9% Contact
Mateo was one of my favorite lower level pitchers to follow. Every time he pitched, he brought triple-digit velocity that often exceeded 102 MPH. Control has been a big problem, but he’s shown progress this year. After lighting the FCL on fire, Mateo was promoted to Low-A. He’s been in the zone much more often at the higher level (52.8% vs 35.7%), which is a trend that started toward the end of his FCL time. His numbers have improved across the board during this stretch. His walk rate in Bradenton collapsed to 11.1%, his strikeout rate has soared to 47.2%, and he’s still rarely allowing hits (.133 BAA).
Mateo is headed in the right direction by attacking the zone more often. His stuff is so good that opposing hitters can’t touch it. He had the lowest zone-contact rate in the FCL, and only top pitching prospects Seth Hernandez and Reinold Navarro have better rates throughout the system. Mateo’s velocity has even ticked up a bit with Bradenton, while his slider (76.9% whiff rate) and cutter (42.1%) join the fastball (42.4%) to give him three swing and miss offerings. He also throws a sinker, which sits a few MPH below the four-seam.
Mateo could be an elite power reliever who has the ability to move quickly through the system. If he continues finding the zone more consistently, he could move quickly. I think the more he attacks the zone and realizes that opposing hitters can’t touch his stuff, the more confidence he will gain to allow him to fearlessly attack the zone going forward. I might be on an island in rating him the best prospect in the FCL this year, but I’m buying the steady adjustments he made to be in the zone more often with his elite reliever stuff.
Top 30 Prospects
Bralyn Brazoban, OF
Stats: .300/.383/.571, 2 HR, 1 2B, 6 3B, 2 SB, 34.6% K, 11.1% BB, 81 PA
Scouting: 95.4 Avg EV, 110.9 MPH Max, 10.0% Barrel, 14.0% HH, 20.2° LA
