The Misuse of Carmen Mlodzinski
The Pirates had two good options with Carmen Mlodzinski and they chose neither of them.
The more I think about it, the more I think Carmen Mlodzinski had a point.
I was looking at the Pittsburgh Pirates draft tracker stats recently, ranking all pitchers by ERA.
Out of the 229 drafted pitchers by the Pirates since 2012, the top three pitchers, ranked by ERA, with over 100 innings: Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mlodzinski.
There’s a big ERA gap until Jared Jones, and another gap until Mitch Keller and Bubba Chandler.
Mlodzinski also ranks 11th overall in MLB strikeouts, despite having the third lowest innings total among that group of 11 Pirates drafted pitchers.
Objectively, Mlodzinski has been a really good pitcher in his young MLB career. That has mostly involved successfully pitching out of the bullpen for his first three years.
I personally think Mlodzinski makes a better reliever than a starter.
His third-time through the order numbers speak to that. He has a .715 OPS against this year in first plate appearances as a starter, along with a .701 OPS against in second plate appearances. The third time through spikes to a 1.019 OPS.
His OPS against also spikes to 1.185 after the 75th pitch of an outing.
The biggest knock on Mlodzinski as a starter is that he gets knocked around when he goes deep into games.
Maybe he’s easy to adjust against. Maybe he has problems adjusting to opposing hitters. Either way, the problem clearly exists.
Even with that disclaimer, it’s difficult to argue the results. His FIP as a starter this season ranks only behind Skenes and Ashcraft among Pirates starters. There’s a big FIP gap between him and Keller/Jones, and another gap until Chandler.
The Pirates asked Mlodzinski to compete as a starting pitcher this Spring, and he did so well that he won a rotation spot.
Then, as noted above, he put up the third best numbers of any starter on the team, continuing his career trend of having numbers that are only beat by Skenes and Ashcraft.
When Jones returned from the injured list, the Pirates moved Mlodzinski to the bullpen.
The move led to controversy.
Mlodzinski didn’t take the move well, making it clear he wanted to be a starter, and eventually landing on the restricted list for not being ready to make the transition to the bullpen.
Once he returned, the Pirates stuck Mlodzinski to a very specific role: Being a long inning reliever only when Jones was on the mound.
“It is easy to make plans in this world; even a cat can do it; and when one is out in those remote oceans it is noticeable that a cat’s plans and a man’s are worth about the same.”
-Mark Twain
On June 4th, Mlodzinski entered the game in the sixth inning, after Jones threw five shutout. It was his first relief appearance since being removed from the rotation.
Mlodzinski gave up a run in the sixth, but pitched the final four frames with only that run allowed, shutting down a 5-1 win. He entered the game with a 94.7% Win Expectancy. It was less of a high-leverage situation, and more of a move to save the bullpen.
On June 10th, the Pirates took a similar approach. Jones started the game, going four innings against the Dodgers. Mlodzinski entered in the fifth inning, with the Pirates having a 36.3% Win Expectancy.
This time, Mlodzinski didn’t have a good outing, allowing four earned runs in 3.2 innings. However, the Pirates had a five run eighth inning, and ended up winning the game.
Then, on June 15th, the same order was repeated. Jones threw four innings as the starter. Mlodzinski came in to pitch in the fifth inning with the Athletics up 5-1. The Pirates had a 7.1% Win Expectancy. Mlodzinski pitched three innings.
In about two weeks of work, Mlodzinski has been limited to only pitching when Jones pitches, and never really knowing the situation he’s going to enter.
There is a massive flaw with this plan.
The Pirates have used Mlodzinski twice so far in situations where he’s merely being used to eat innings and spare the bullpen. Keep in mind that Mlodzinski has been consistently one of their better performing pitchers, relegated to an innings eating role in games that have mostly been out of hand.
Meanwhile, the Pirates constantly lose games from their lack of reliable relievers. Mlodzinski has a history of being a reliable reliever, beyond just a long man who can save the rest of the bullpen. The long relief work seems pointless when the bullpen he’s saving blows leads multiple times every rotation turn.
Wasting Mlodzinski
Mlodzinski would make sense in two roles, and the Pirates are choosing neither.
He’s arguably the best right-handed relief option the Pirates have. He can go more than two innings as a long reliever, but he’d be more valuable as a high-leverage guy when the game is closer to coin-flip odds. Instead, he’s entered when the Pirates have had 94.7%, 36.3%, and 7.1% chances of winning.
The other role would be keeping him as a starter and limiting his ability to go deep in the game.
Mlodzinski has a 2.10 ERA in he first three innings of the game this season, but struggles with a 7.27 ERA in the fourth through sixth innings. When he gets the opportunity to set the pace of the game from inning one, he starts off well.
Mlodzinski would make sense as an extended opener who could pitch 2-3 innings, then hand the ball over to Jones.
Jones is returning from a major injury, and will need his workload limited. He might not technically be starting, but if Mlodzinski only went three innings, Jones would be pitching the same amount of innings he’s throwing now. There would also be the chance that Jones enters with a lead and an easier situation.
Keeping Mlodzinski in a specific long relief role attached to Jones doesn’t look good when less experienced and less successful relievers are thrown into high leverage situations between his outings.
In the time Mlodzinski has been a long reliever behind Jones, the Pirates have lost two big games turning to Wilber Dotel and Brandon Bidois in close outings.
On June 9th, Dotel followed Skenes in the 7th inning, entering with a 50% win expectancy in a 2-2 game. He gave up two runs to the Dodgers, and Bidois entered in the same inning to allow eight more runs to cross the plate.
Mlodzinski was being saved for the next night, when he’d enter with the Pirates needing a multi-run comeback.
The Pirates didn’t need as big of a comeback on June 14th, when Skenes left them down 2-1 after six innings. The Pirates had a 25.8% chance of winning when Bidois entered in the eighth inning, down one run. He allowed two runs, putting the game out of reach.
Mlodzinski was being saved for the next night, when he’d enter with a 7.1% chance of winning in a game that was already out of hand.
The Pirates need to be using Mlodzinski in closer games, which they can’t do if his long-relief appearances are being scheduled.
The practice of scheduling relievers is flawed in general, but it would make more sense for Bidois to enter the games where the Pirates are down 5-1 than it would for Bidois to have priority over Mlodzinski for the 2-1 deficits.
And while Dotel has been one of the more promising relievers, it would make more sense to have Mlodzinski pitching in the 50% Win Probability games, with Dotel pitching the scheduled long relief outings early in his career.
The worst part of this is the Pirates are locked into this piggyback plan with Mlodzinski.
On Monday night, he threw 75 pitches, which is the equivalent of a start. He won’t be available until at least the next start by Jones, who also threw 75 pitches on Monday night.
In order for the Pirates to break this routine, they’ll need to go short-handed in the bullpen for a few games while Mlodzinski rests up, and then they’ll need to get him out of the piggybacking role that is attached to Jones starts.
That’s a short-term, low price cost that would be outweighed by the benefits of freeing up one of the best pitchers on the staff to be used as a reliever in higher leverage situations.
The Pirates didn’t necessarily make a mistake moving Mlodzinski to the bullpen.
They did make a mistake moving him into a meaningless piggyback role.
They should un-do that mistake as soon as they can.
Until the next time I go live…
-Tim Williams