Last week, I released my first top 30 prospect list in two years.
My process has changed over the years.
In my earlier years on Pirates Prospects, dating back to when I started writing in 2009, I favored raw tools and elevated lower level upside cases.
Maybe it’s getting older, but I no longer look years to the future for anything. For most things in my life, if it doesn’t impact the current week, I don’t care. I rarely look beyond the next month for anything. My furthest commitment in this life is currently Avengers tickets in December. I also want to see how the Philadelphia 76ers season plays out.
At this stage in my life, I live in the moment, not the future, which is where I lived in the past.
So, the appeal of a player who has a small probability of being a Major Leaguer in five to seven years has little appeal. That’s a young man’s game. I can barely get hyped about players who could reach the Majors in 2-3 years.
I also care more about results than projecting tools. MLB teams project tools because they’re trying to buy low on a player who might be better in the future. That’s one thing.
Ranking how good players are, whether that’s a current outlook or a projection in the future, shouldn’t be heavy on tools-over-stats. I’m more interested in how good a player is now, and why he’s good now, versus focusing on the tools that might make him good in the future when he’s currently struggling.
This week, I’m expanding my rankings for Substack paid subscribers, looking at the 31-50 prospects who make up my Tier 6 and 7 rankings.
In the past, I would use this section to heavily highlight rookie-league prospects. Especially with the Tier 7 group in the final ten spots. There’s a certain allure to being the first to hype up a guy with raw tools as the potential next big thing.
There were years of my life where I would spend every afternoon sweating in the horrid heat of the Florida summers watching rookie-league games, just to spot players who stood out with the best tools. In my older years, I know that’s a fool’s errand.
The gap between the Dominican leagues and the FCL is massive. The gap between the FCL and Low-A is massive. There’s not a big gap between the A-ball levels, but the gap between High-A and Double-A is massive. I don’t think the gap between Double-A and Triple-A is huge, but the gap between Triple-A and the Majors is the biggest one of all.
So, when you’re projecting players in the DSL and FCL, and highlighting their tools as something which could take them to the top level, you’re giving a lot of benefit of the doubt that those tools can make several massive jumps from rookie ball to the Majors. I do have some FCL/Bradenton guys on this list, but they made the list only because their tools were some of the best at the levels, while also producing results.
I’m not even considering DSL players for this list, as that’s like scouting a JV high school squad and extrapolating results across Varsity, multiple college levels, and the real first test of pro ball in Double-A all the way through the Majors.
When a player starts putting results up in the FCL across a season, and shows some standout tools that project to at least the Double-A level, that’s when they make this list. As you’ll notice, my entire list is very light on these rookie-level lottery plays, and that’s a change in philosophy from idealism to realism.
Below are my top 31-50 prospects in the final two tiers, with the above disclaimers that I’m not cosplaying as a scout who is trying to unearth the next big thing from the lower levels, but instead telling you who stands out to me for their production right now.
Free subscribers get the first report. The rest is for paid subscribers, as a thanks for the support. Unlike the top 30, which has the free list on the Pirates Prospects homepage, the only way you can access the final 20 names and their reports is to subscribe to this Substack.
TIER 6
The final four spots of my top 30 included Tier 6 players. What I like about the tiered rankings is that there’s little difference in talent between the top and bottom of the tier.
You could argue any of the following players up to rank 27 if you had a different preference. My own preference was to focus on the highest upside lottery tickets for the final top 30 spots.
The remaining players are more upper-level lottery tickets. When I say lottery ticket, I’m talking about the potential to find a future big league starter from this group. These players don’t have as strong of a path as those in Tier 5 for a regular role, but they do have an outside shot.
I give the lower level guys preference, because they have more development time ahead of them to make a meaningful adjustment. It only takes one adjustment for these upper level guys to go from fringe-prospect to future big league starter.
Rafael Flores Jr., C
One of the final changes I made to the top 30 list was dropping Flores from Tier 5 to Tier 6. With the decision to highlight lower-level upside players from Tier 6 with the final four spots, this dropped Flores to spot 31. He has since hit five home runs in the last week at the Major League level, reaching base in every game he’s played.
A big reason I dropped Flores was the lack of power production. He’s hit more home runs in the last week than he did in 276 plate appearances this year with Indianapolis. He only hit seven homers in 206 plate appearances last year in Triple-A. In total, he has 11 homers in 482 plate appearances at the Triple-A level over the last two seasons.
The raw power is there, with an 89.3 MPH average exit velocity between Triple-A and the Majors. That puts him slightly ahead of Henry Davis. The consistency has been a concern. After the last week, I would reconsider and put him back in Tier 5, which would have him around the 25 spot in the system. That said, he would need to show that the latest surge is more than a fluke. Flores could have made a significant change in the Majors to unlock his power. He could also be on a hot streak that will regress back to his Triple-A results. Most players don’t just start hitting for consistent power the moment they arrive in the Majors, which is why I do have some reserves about Flores going forward. It would be great for the Pirates if he was the exception.
