Pittsburgh Pirates Top 30 Prospects v1.0
Tiered rankings of the top 30 prospects in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, complete with scouting reports on each player.
I hate traditional prospect rankings.
For years, I’ve been pushing tiered rankings as a preferred system over a numerical 1-30 list.
Everyone loves the simplicity of a list. It allows you to see where one player grades above another. The truth is that every system has clusters of talent. There might be a gap a mile wide between the first and second ranked players, while the gap between two and five is minimal. Within these tiered clusters, the difference is often in the eye of the beholder.
I’ve put together my first top 30 ranking in the last two years, after taking a break last year to develop some skills in other areas of life. Part of that break has led to the new PiratesProspects.com, which received an update in tandem with this list. You can now check the site every day and see how the top 30 prospects performed right from the homepage. There’s also a news feed that keeps track of articles posted here, daily results, home runs, transactions, and other system news.
In the future, my plan is to expand on this ranking process with additional ranking methods.
The rankings below are the traditional approach. I filled a spreadsheet with every player I felt was a legitimate prospect, then started ranking them, re-ranking them, re-ranking again, writing up the list, re-ranking during the write-up, continuing the write-up, re-ranking again, reading the finished product, re-ranking one more time, and finally hitting send, knowing the inevitable results aren’t going to be perfect.
Even with all of the deliberation, this is mostly my impression of following the system daily for two months. Like any prospect ranking, it should only be seen as an entertaining insight of an individual opinion.
I’ve also been working on two new ranking methods. The first would be an objective, stats-based look at tools. This would remove personal bias, and create a system to compare results and tools across levels. The second method is more of a unique project, moving away from tools-based rankings.
Eventually, I’m going to be basing my own rankings on a blend of the two new systems, along with my own adjustments. However, I don’t anticipate these new systems to be finished any time soon. That’s why this list is releasing now.
Another reason I hate rankings is that they tend to degrade into group think. There’s not a lot of difference between most of the national rankings. There’s a reason for this.
Most of the national outlets get the bulk of their information from the same source, and that’s the Pirates. They each have their own tendencies to re-order the list from things they’ve independently seen, but there are rarely any huge surprises.
I’ve spent years formulating my own unique scouting view of the game. My view isn’t any more correct than any other outlet predicting the future. It is going to be rapidly different than the group think, as I didn’t consult anyone for their input when putting this list together. I don’t even have more than a vague knowledge of other lists at this point.
What use is a personal ranking if you’re just going to stick to the script that everyone else is following?
The following is my view of the system rankings, with reports on every player in the top 30.
The full list can be found at Pirates Prospects for free.
Paid subscribers to this Substack get the full scouting reports of every player, which is currently over 10,000 words.
All stats are updated through the start of this week, 8/10/26. DSL players weren’t considered for these rankings.
TIER ONE
The top tier is occupied by one player, and makes up the absolute best prospects in the game. There’s a gap between this tier and the next tier, which includes top 100 prospect candidates.
Seth Hernandez, RHP
6-1 | 74.0 IP | 2.43 ERA | 1.05 WHIP | 40.4% K | 10.6% BB | 1.22 HR/9 | .181 AVG
History: The Pirates drafted Hernandez with the sixth overall pick in 2025. I’ve never seen a prep pitcher pushed this aggressively, with Hernandez making it to High-A during his first pro season. He’s handled the move well, outside of some home run issues at home in Greensboro. Hernandez has quickly become the best ranked pitching prospect in the game by many outlets.
Upside Case: Hernandez throws a fastball that sat 97.1 MPH during his time in Low-A, hitting 100.5 MPH. He also throws an upper-80s slider that generated a 71.1% whiff rate, an 80 MPH curveball that generated a 73.1% whiff rate, and a changeup that generated a 70.7% whiff rate. He’s got four pitches with above-average potential, and the chance for multiple plus offerings.
Current Downside: Control has been an issue in Greensboro, with a 12.8% walk rate. I don’t knock him for the home runs, which largely came at the home park, but Hernandez is going to need to refine his stuff to get the most out of his pitch mix. Experience is the only real downside. He’s very early in his pro career, and needs more innings to refine his skills.
Quick Report: Hernandez finished his season on the injured list with an oblique injury. Before the injury, he did more than what you could expect from a 19-year-old in his pro debut. He quickly became the best pitching prospect in the league, and justified that designation with a dominant performance in the Future’s Game. Hernandez should move to Double-A next season, and is looking like a key building block of a future Pirates rotation.
TIER TWO
I’ll note here that my rankings are less about who is actually a top 100 prospect in national rankings, and more about who has the talent level to be in this tier group. That’s why you won’t find this tier ranked by their industry order, and why you’ll find players who aren’t in any top 100 ranked in this tier.
Murf Gray, 3B
441 PA | 21 2B | 0 3B | 27 HR | 3 SB | .309/.406/.583 | 20.4% K | 11.6% BB
History: Gray was the 73rd overall pick in 2025 out of Fresno State. He didn’t make his debut until 2026, but has quickly soared through three levels, going from Bradenton all the way to Altoona this season. In the process, he’s displayed some impressive power results, along with an advanced ability to get on base.
Upside Case: I’m hesitant about college hitters until they’ve had extensive time in Double-A, and with only 82 plate appearances in Altoona to date, Gray doesn’t have that experience. What he has shown in the power department, including during his time in Altoona, is worthy of a high ranking. Even if he can’t hit for average in the upper-levels, he’s got the power and plate patience to be a valuable three-outcomes guy.
Current Downside: Gray is only hitting .213 in Altoona, though he’s getting on base at a .415 rate and still displaying some of the best power on the team. This leads to the idea that he can still be successful as a three-outcome hitter. He doesn’t seem likely to remain at third base, and a move to a corner spot would put more emphasis on his bat to drive his value.
Quick Report: With some of the best raw power in the system, and with that power carrying over to his early Double-A results, Gray is a prospect to get excited about. Even better than the power is his walk rate, which has increased at every level. He’s projecting as a future Major Leaguer, and he’s got the average and on-base skills to have a shot at becoming an impact hitter in the big leagues one day.
Lonnie White Jr., OF
390 PA | 16 2B | 3 3B | 23 HR | 18 SB | .300/.400/.576 | 29.0% K | 13.9% BB
History: The Pirates went under-slot in the first round of the 2021 draft in order to stock up on projectable prep players. White was one of the over-slot picks from that strategy. His early years were plagued by injuries, but he’s gotten more development time the last three seasons, while showing positive trends. This year has been a breakout season at the plate, carried over to a significant time in Double-A where he has 16 homers and a .301 average, along with a 13.1% walk rate.
Upside Case: I’m honestly surprised that so many outlets have White ranked so low. From what I’ve seen, and he’s one of few players I’ve looked up, he shows up just inside the top 30. I can understand that his injury history probably triggers some risk concerns. He’s starting to show why the Pirates invested so highly into him. He’s two stolen bases away from a 20/20 season while batting .300. He hasn’t let up that pace in the important jump to Double-A. If this continues, White could be pushing to reach the Majors by the second half of 2027, with a chance to start in the 2028 outfield.
Current Downside: The injuries are the obvious red flag, though White has gone from being injured and lacking production and development to rarely being injured and being one of the best hitters in the system. A bigger concern might be his 31.4% strikeout rate in Double-A. His aggressive approach has led to more power than Gray has shown in a small sample at the same level, and he is reserved enough for a 13.1% walk rate and a .397 OBP. He might not maintain his current high average going forward.
Quick Report: White is currently having a breakout season. The big difference between his breakout season and the breakout season from Gray is that this is the first impression from Gray, while White is battling against disappointing seasons early in his career. If you only looked at his current production, you’d see a future Major Leaguer who could be an above-average starter. If you are concerned by his injuries, those concerns have transferred from a lack of development time, to the risk that a developed hitter might not stay on the field all season. The latter is less of a risk, and where White currently resides.
Edward Florentino, OF
364 PA | 14 2B | 2 3B | 19 HR | 8 SB | .228/.352/.477 | 27.2% K | 15.1% BB
History: Florentino was signed to a six-figure deal in 2024, making him one of the top five signings by the Pirates from that international class. He has quickly become the best prospect from that group. This began with advanced power in rookie ball, which has carried over to this season. He also has speed and advanced plate patience, including a 13.4% walk rate in Greensboro this season.
Upside Case: The power is where Florentino really stands out. His exit velocity during a limited run in Bradenton this season was 94.5 MPH, with a 107.6 MPH max velocity. His launch angle is designed for fly balls, and he can find the barrel. He also stands out for a disciplined approach, only chasing 13.6% of the time in his brief time in Bradenton. If you expand his numbers to include last year’s Bradenton results, he still has a 21.1% chase rate and an 89.4 MPH exit velocity. The EV is higher than Gray this season, and the chase rate would be fourth lowest on the team.
Current Downside: One thing that stands out to me about Florentino is his swing. He’s got uppercut action which will lead to fly balls and home runs, but might also be easier to exploit the higher he goes, limiting his ability to hit for average. I think he’s got more risk of being a three outcomes guy than the previous two hitters on this list, and that could be starting to show with a .226 average and inconsistent production in High-A this season.
Quick Report: Florentino is only in his age 19 season, so he has plenty of time to develop. He’s shown a lot of promise early in his career, with advanced power and on-base skills. I have concerns with his bat path, but he’s 3-4 years younger than Gray or White, which means he’s got plenty of time to level out his approach and aim for more consistent hitting. Even with the current approach, his power challenges for the best in the system, and he provides value getting on base and running the bases.
Reinold Navarro, LHP
4-2 | 65.0 IP | 2.80 ERA | 1.49 WHIP | 39.2% K | 21.2% BB | 0.56 HR/9 | .164 AVG
History: Navarro received the second highest bonus from the Pirates of any pitcher in the 2024 international class. He has since emerged as the top pitcher from that group, with standout numbers in rookie ball the last two seasons, and a breakout performance at the age of 19 in Bradenton this season. The only pitcher in the system who consistently rates higher than him is Hernandez. The injury to Hernandez will likely mean that Navarro will finish the season with the most strikeouts in the minor league system.
Upside Case: The stuff from Navarro is exceptional for a 19-year-old lefty. His fastball averages 96.1 MPH, touching 99.1, and generates a 41.7% whiff rate. It’s the best fastball in the system in my view. He also throws a slider with a 44.2% whiff rate, standing out as one of the best breaking pitches. Completing the trio is his changeup, which has a 50% whiff rate, and is one of the best changeups in the lower levels. Navarro already shows the potential for three above-average pitches, and the chance for multiple plus offerings.
Current Downside: The big red flag is control. Navarro has a 21.2% walk rate this season. That hasn’t stopped him from dominating opposing hitters, but it does show that his exceptional arsenal needs refinement. He’s only allowing a .164 average against, while striking out 39.2% of opposing hitters. He’s only in the zone 41.8% of the time, and only gets a 25% chase rate. That combo will catch up to him at the higher levels and limit his dominance if he doesn’t improve his ability to throw strikes.
Quick Report: I’m definitely on an island with my ranking of Navarro, but the raw arsenal and the early dominance from a 19-year-old lefty is rare. The control is a serious concern, but he’s also a pitcher who only has 120 career innings in pro ball. If the control improves, Navarro becomes a complement to Hernandez at the top of the system, and becomes one of the best pitching prospects in the game. For now, his raw but elite stuff stands out, in spite of the poor control, and should justify him as a back-end top 100 guy.
TIER THREE
The third tier includes prospects who I think could be on the fringe of a top 100 ranking. These players might actually show up in some top 100 lists. They all have the chance to be starters in the big leagues, with a path toward above-average potential that is lower than the previous ranked players.
