Prospect Watch: Reinold Navarro, Levi Sterling, Playoffs

Two of the best performing pitchers in the Pirates minor league system are getting promoted in time for the High-A playoffs.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are promoting a pair of Bradenton pitchers to Greensboro, per Colin Beazley.

Reinold Navarro and Levi Sterling are both moving up this week, after the 19-year-old starters stood out as two of the best pitchers in Low-A this season.

Those moves also clear innings in Bradenton, which could be used by the new draft picks. The Pirates recently promoted 10th rounder Michael Gibson and undrafted free agent Kyle Calzadiaz to Bradenton. They also recently promoted Wifrailyn Jaquez from the FCL.

Navarro and Sterling moving up will provide a challenge for the young starters at the end of the season. They were both in my top 15 overall prospects, with Navarro inside my top five. Here’s more information on each player.

Reinold Navarro: A Left-Handed Power Pitcher

I’ve written about Navarro a lot this season.

He stands out to me as having the best fastball in the minor league system. The 6’ 0” lefty throws the pitch at 96 MPH, getting a 41.4% whiff rate. He also generates one of the lowest exit velocities in the system, at 85.5 MPH. He ranks with the lowest zone contact rate in the system. He also has a top five spin rate.

In addition to the fastball, Navarro has one of the best sliders in the system. The 82.7 MPH pitch generated a 41.9% whiff rate in Bradenton this season, along with one of the lowest exit velocities at 85.5 MPH.

Rounding out his three-pitch mix is one of the best changeups in the lower levels. Navarro’s changeup sits 87.3 MPH, offering nearly 9 MPH of separation from the fastball. His 49% whiff rate on the pitch is fifth in the system. He also has one of the five lowest contact rates in the zone, and an average 85.5 MPH exit velocity.

Navarro works heavy on the fastball, only throwing the slider 20.2% of the time and the changeup 9.2% of the time. He ranks first in the system in fastball usage.

The big downside for Navarro right now is his control. His stuff is dominant. He has swing and miss potential on all three pitches, and batters don’t make consistent hard contact on any single pitch. However, he only throws his fastball in the zone 44.8% of the time. His slider is only thrown in the zone 37.8% of the time and only gets a 24.7% chase rate. The changeup is in the zone 35.2% of the time, with a 25.3% chase rate.

Navarro will find more disciplined hitters in High-A. His stuff is probably good enough that he could succeed by challenging advanced hitters more often in the zone with his fastball. That might open up the slider as a chase offering.

Another downside to his game, and this is relevant to Greensboro, is that he has a 31.9% fly ball rate, and the fourth lowest ground ball rate in the system. He could be susceptible to home runs in the smaller home park.

In his final start with Bradenton, Navarro pitched five shutout innings, allowing one hit, no walks, and striking out six. That led to him being Bradenton’s pitcher of the week last week.

On the season, Navarro had a 2.60 ERA in 69.1 innings, with 117 strikeouts (39.1%) and a 20.1% walk rate. Despite a .157 average against, his walk rate soared his WHIP to 1.40. However, he has avoided damage due to the second most strikeouts in the system to Seth Hernandez. Navarro is one away from tying the injured Hernandez, making it likely that Navarro finishes with the system lead this year.

Hernandez is also the only pitcher who arguably has better stuff across the board than Navarro. The three pitch combo and the swing and miss potential from all offerings is why I had Navarro as the number five prospect in the system.

Levi Sterling: Advanced Pitchability

While Navarro is more of a power pitcher with control problems, Sterling is more advanced for his age on the mound.

The 6’ 5” right-hander throws six pitches. He leads with a 92.8 MPH sinker, and pairs that with a slider, curveball, and cutter. He also mixes in a four-seam fastball (94.2 MPH) and a changeup (86.8 MPH) as more situational offerings.

Sterling doesn’t over-power hitters with his fastballs, getting only a 22.2% whiff rate on the sinker, and a lower rate on the four-seam. He stands out for his control, and the quality of his secondary stuff.

The sinker from Sterling is thrown in the zone 50.8% of the time. He gets one of the six lowest zone contact rates with the pitch, along with average exit velocity at 86.6 MPH. He has one of the top three spin rates in the system on the pitch, and gets a surprisingly high amount of pop ups, with the second-highest rate on sinkers.

His curveball is one of the best in the system. It’s not a standout pitch in any single area, but it ranks above-average in whiff rate (40.5%), is second lowest in zone swings, slightly above-average in zone contact, has the third-lowest chase contact rate in the system, and is slightly above average with an 86.6 MPH exit velocity. He also has the highest spin rate of any pitcher in the system who has thrown more than 15 tracked curveballs.

The slider is closer to an average offering, with a middle of the pack 34.2% whiff rate, along with a slightly above-average 86.6 MPH exit velocity. He has an above-average chase rate, and is above-average at limiting contact on chase swings, which is a good combo. He throws the pitch in the zone 54% of the time, which is one of the highest rates in the system, but only gets a 61.3% swing rate in the zone, which is above-average.

Sterling’s cutter is his third offering with a 30% whiff rate or higher, picking up a 34.3% rate which ranks top five in the system. It also might be his best secondary pitch, aside from the curve. He gets a ridiculous amount of chase on the cutter, with a system-leading 45.3%, and only a 41.9% contact rate on chase swings. Hitters make consistent contact in the zone, but swing at a bottom-five rate, and only produce average exit velocity. This is another pitch where Sterling has one of the best spin rates in the system.

He doesn’t have a power profile like Navarro, but Sterling throws strikes and has a larger arsenal, with an ability to mix his pitches to get dominant results. He might not have any plus offerings, but he has the making of at least four average or better pitches, and multiple above-average offerings.

Sterling’s 112 strikeouts on the season rank fourth in the minor league system, and only five behind Navarro. He had a 4.31 ERA in 96 innings with Bradenton, and only a 9.9% walk rate to go with his 28.4% strikeout rate. In his last start, he struck out 11 batters in six innings.

Sterling will face a challenge against more advanced hitters who have a bit more experience against quality secondary stuff and good pitchability. He also had a 1.3 HR/9 in Bradenton, and could be impacted by Greensboro’s home park.

I ranked Sterling as the 13th best prospect in the system, due to his advanced approach, his secondary stuff, and the chance that he could one day fill out his big frame and add some power to his arsenal in his 20s.

Playoff Race Updates

One benefit for Navarro and Sterling moving up at this point in the season is they will pitch meaningful innings in a Greensboro playoff race.

Bradenton is out of the mix, ranking last in their division in the second half with a 17-30 record. By comparison, Greensboro is in second place in their division in the second half, 2.5 games back.

They’re behind Frederick, the first half winner, and Greensboro finished the first half in second place. All they need to do is maintain second place to make the post-season. They’re currently 1.5 games up over Wilmington, with two other teams within 2.5 games.

Elsewhere in the system, Indianapolis is leading the International League West by one game.

Altoona is in last place in their division in the second half with an 18-26 record.

The FCL Pirates finished their season 26-30.

The DSL Pirates affiliates enter their final week of the season. The DSL Pirates Gold are in last place in their division. The DSL Pirates Black are in third place, two games back. The DSL has a 16-team playoff format that awards the top eight division winners and the top eight remaining winning percentages. The Pirates Black are 2.5 games back from the final Wild Card spot.

Navarro and Sterling have a good chance of pitching in the post-season, and will be in a playoff race down the stretch. The Pirates could also make some late moves from Altoona to Indianapolis to give some upper-level playoff push experience.

Until Navarro and Sterling lead Greensboro to the playoffs…

-Tim Williams