Who Would You Trade For From the Greensboro Hitters?
Opposing General Managers will have a difficult time evaluating hitting results from Pirates prospects in Greensboro.
Sammy Stafura is on an epic power streak right now.
The 21-year-old shortstop homered on Wednesday afternoon for Greensboro, as one of four home runs hit on the day by the Grasshoppers.
This has been a recent trend.
Stafura homered in four straight games last week. He has already hit a home run in back-to-back games this week. He has six homers in his last seven games.
Prior to this power surge, Stafura had four home runs for Greensboro this season, after hitting six combined last year.
Power in Greensboro
Stafura isn’t the only hitter who is seeing a power increase lately.
Top hitting prospect Edward Florentino also homered on Wednesday. It was the 14th of the season for the 19-year-old outfielder, with 11 of those in High-A. Florentino homered twice on Sunday, and added another on Thursday night last week, giving him four in his last five games.
Brian Sanchez homered on Wednesday, after hitting two home runs in his last game on Sunday. The 21-year-old has seven home runs on the season, which is a career-high, exceeding the four he hit in each of the previous two seasons.
Jhonny Severino was the final player who added to the power display on Wednesday. This gives Severino 20 home runs on the season, which far exceeds his career high of 16 in 2024. The 21-year-old infielder is the second Pirates minor leaguer to reach the 20 home run mark this season.
The first was Murf Gray, who didn’t homer, but had three hits in Wednesday’s game. Gray has split the season between Bradenton and Greensboro. The 22-year-old, taken 73rd overall in last year’s draft, has 22 home runs between the two A-ball levels.
Power* (*in Greensboro)
One disclaimer needs to be stated about the results from Greensboro over the last week.
The home runs all happened in Greensboro.
The Grasshoppers play in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in minor league baseball. With a street running behind the right field wall, the outfield is shaped in a way where there are no alleys, and a fly ball to the gap can easily go for a home run. Even the left field dimensions are shallow.
I mentioned the age of all hitters above, because the traditional narrative of minor league development is that power comes last. When you have 19-22 year old hitters launching home runs at this rate, the traditional analysis leads to positive projections about their future.
Greensboro’s park presents a problem with that projection system. How much of the power results are legit, and how much are a product of the park?
There are two narrative approaches you can take.
I’m going to take both of them.
The Pirates Just Know How to Find and Develop Hitting Prospects
An Alternate Reality Story by Tim Williams
Who says the Pirates can’t identify and develop hitting talent?
On Wednesday afternoon, the Greensboro Grasshoppers were powered to a 16-3 victory, backed by four home runs.
Jhonny Severino (20), Edward Florentino (14), Sammy Stafura (11), and Brian Sanchez (7) all added to their long ball totals this season, while Murf Gray picked up three hits.
These are all encouraging examples of the Pirates’ ability to identify and develop young hitters.
Severino was originally acquired by the Pirates in the 2023 Carlos Santana trade. He was a 19-year-old in rookie ball with power potential. He hit 16 home runs between the FCL and Low-A Bradenton the following season, and those aren’t power-friendly environments. Now, he’s continuing his power development with his first 20 homer season in High-A.
Stafura was another trade acquisition. Picked up in the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade at last year’s deadline, the young shortstop has seen a power surge over the last week. He’s homered in six of his last seven games. His season total of ten homers is a new career high, showing that the power might be starting to develop.
Sanchez was also added at last year’s deadline, part of the David Bednar return. The outfielder was previously known for his high on-base percentages in the lower levels, but has added some power with seven homers this season. That includes three in the last two games.
On the international side, the Pirates signed Florentino in 2024 to a six-figure deal. He showed some power potential with five home runs in his DSL debut, followed by 16 between the FCL and Low-A last season. His power surge continues with 11 in Greensboro this season and 14 total, after hitting four in his last five games.
Meanwhile, Gray shows success from the draft. The 73rd overall pick last season leads the minor league system in home runs. He has 22 combined homers this year, with 14 in Greensboro. He has also shown the ability to hit, with three more knocks added this afternoon, building on his .305 average in High-A during his pro debut season.
With production coming from early draft picks, high budget international signings, and trade deadline acquisitions, the Pirates are showing the ability to not only get talent from every avenue, but also the ability to develop that talent.
This pipeline will no doubt one day lead to an influx of power hitters in Pittsburgh.
Now it’s time to dump some cold water on the same situation.
Greensboro Hitting Stats Need to Be Taken With a Grain of Salt
An Alternate Reality Story by Tim Williams
I’m not going to say that results in Greensboro have zero indication of future success, or the ability to reach the Majors.
Two years ago, Charles McAdoo hit nine home runs in Greensboro, with a .336/.415/.561 line in 223 at-bats. This year, he made his Major League debut.
The Pirates promoted McAdoo to Double-A in 2024, before trading him to the Blue Jays at the deadline for Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
After the trade, McAdoo continued hitting for power in the upper levels. He has 24 career homers in 673 at-bats at the Double-A level, which includes his time in Altoona before the trade. He added 11 more in 231 at-bats in Triple-A this season, before making his Major League debut with a home run.
While McAdoo has reached the majors and is hitting for power, his other numbers have dropped.
McAdoo hit .247 in a full season in Double-A last year, hit .268 in Triple-A this season, and only hit .160 with a .440 OPS in his brief first run in the Majors. He did have a .841 OPS in Triple-A, and he’s only 24, so I wouldn’t close the book on his MLB career yet.
The point with McAdoo is that monster numbers in Greensboro don’t easily translate to upper-level success. He’s also not even the biggest power story from the level.
Jase Bowen hit 23 home runs in Greensboro in 2023. Bowen actually made the Majors with the Padres this season, after hitting .292/.362/.600 with 13 homers in Triple-A. Those results came in the PCL, which is a completely different power-friendly league. Bowen followed his 23-homer season in 2023 with ten in Double-A in 2024. He had nine between four teams last season, before this year’s revival in the PCL.
Shawn Ross (23 in 2024), Aaron Shackelford (22 in 2021), Esmerlyn Valdez (20 in 2025), and Matt Fraizer (20 in 2021) are the other players who have hit 20+ homers in a season in Greensboro over the previous five seasons. There are mixed results from that group.
Valdez is showing this year that his power is legitimate. One year after his power display in Greensboro, he has six homers in the Majors after hitting 13 in Triple-A. His strikeout rate is a concern, but that tends to be a side effect of aggressive power hitters. The encouraging sign is that he’s aggressive in the zone, while limiting chase swings.
Ross hit 37 homers in Greensboro between 2023-24, then combined for 13 in 2025-26. He has eight this season between Altoona and Indianapolis, while consistently batting below the Mendoza line. The catcher grades well behind the plate, and his raw power is legitimate, but held back by the poor contact rates.
Shackelford is out of baseball after seeing his power decline by 2024, along with a low average and a first base positioning that made power his driving tool. Fraizer is in Double-A with the Red Sox, but hasn’t hit more than eight homers in a single season since leaving Greensboro.
There are success stories that come out of Greensboro like Valdez, and to a lesser extent, McAdoo and Bowen.
For the most part, power at this level should be taken with a grain of salt, until the player can show their abilities in a more neutral setting at a higher level.
Splitting the Difference
Back to Reality After Wreaking Havoc on the Multiverse
What’s the correct approach with Greensboro stats?
Take them at face value? Discard them entirely?
The answer lies somewhere in the middle, though it’s probable closer to one of those extremes than the other.
How do you separate the Valdez examples from the others who went from 20-home run power to single-digit results in the upper levels?
One method exists with splits.
Valdez wasn’t just a product of the home park. He hit 11 of his 20 homers last year in Greensboro, while hitting the other nine on the road. His overall hitting was better on the road, with a .319/.400/.596 line versus .283/.365/.580 at home.
By comparison, Shackelford hit 14 of his 22 homers at home, and was only a .197/.263/.410 hitter on the road.
Bowen hit 14 of his 23 homers at home, and had an .882/.715 home/road OPS split.
McAdoo is probably the best example of a hitter who has maintained his power in the upper levels. He’s also another example of a better hitter on the road in Greensboro, with a .792/.884 OPS split.
Fraizer is an interesting case. His Greensboro home/road splits were split evenly, with a .900+ OPS on either side, as well as double-digit home runs. Then, he just completely fell off.
The power didn’t replicate in the upper levels, and neither did the hitting. The closest Fraizer came was in 2025 in Triple-A, when he hit .305/.361/.452 with three homers in 197 at-bats. Injuries have played a role in limiting his last two seasons, but his power and hitting fell off while he was healthy in previous years.
Age is another component.
Fraizer was 23-years-old in High-A. Part of this age was the impact of the pandemic. Drafted in the third round in 2019, Fraizer had to wait two years until his first full season in pro ball. The results were monster numbers in High-A that were never replicated elsewhere.
The COVID delay was the reason for Fraizer playing the level at an advanced age, but the age factor shouldn’t be ignored.
The only player who might be impacted by the age factor from Wednesday’s group of Greensboro contributors would be Gray.
This is only his first pro season, but its also Gray’s age-22 season. His monster results have been a product of a college player dominating A-ball. The big test will be his jump to Double-A.
I’m optimistic that Gray’s power could carry over, but there’s still the remaining question as to whether he’ll be more like Valdez, who seems like a legitimate hitting threat, or McAdoo, whose hitting abilities didn’t carry over to the upper levels.
Gray does have that positive trend that his power is split between home and road results, with better overall numbers on the road.
The home/road split factor raises concerns with Sanchez and Stafura the most.
All seven of the home runs from Sanchez this season have come at home, and he’s hitting for just a .498 OPS on the road. Stafura has only hit one home run on the road this season, with a .728 OPS away from Greensboro.
Severino and Florentino are more evenly split, with similar numbers home and away, showing their results aren’t just a product of a hitter-friendly environment. They’ve also both hit for power in pitcher-friendly environments in the lower levels, so it’s not like the current power is unprecedented. Florentino’s results are also encouraging for the age factor, as he’s young for the level.
Greensboro has ten different hitters this year with double-digit home runs.
Of the remaining group, Axiel Plaz and Wyatt Sanford draw caution for having better home results, though both have an OPS above .800 on the road.
Jared Jones and Easton Carmichael, two college draft picks from 2025, are both better on the road than at home. That’s a good sign for both, though the 22-year-olds both have the age concern.
Tony Blanco Jr. has done better on the road than at home, though he doesn’t have explosive numbers beyond his power, with an average in the .230s no matter where he goes.
That leaves Yordany De Los Santos, who has better numbers on the road, down to a .247/.312 average split, and a .341/.383 OBP split.
Trade Deadline Decisions
Who would you bet on in Greensboro to have success in the upper levels, and reach the Majors?
What if the bet had an impact on your job?
That’s a question opposing General Managers will need to ask over the next month.
If the Pirates want to trade for bullpen help at the Major League level, they’re going to need to trade prospects. Most of their best performing prospects are in Greensboro.
If you’re an opposing General Manager, which of the above players would you bet on as your long-term return in a rebuild?
The Pirates were on the other side of this question in previous years, which is how they added players like Severino, Stafura, and Sanchez. Each of those players is looking like a good addition based off their Greensboro numbers, but which of those players are more likely to continue those numbers at higher levels?
It’s not just opposing General Managers who need to ask themselves which Greensboro results are real. The Pirates need to do the best job they can at keeping the players who have the highest probability of success, while trading the riskier options.
For this reason, I can’t decide if Greensboro is an advantage or a nuisance for the Pirates.
It could be considered an advantage by elevating the status of hitters at the level who are putting up numbers that might not be repeated elsewhere.
Every time I see a good result from Greensboro, my mind adds the disclaimer. Then, I see people celebrating the results without any disclaimer and I think about how many MLB front offices might do the same.
Greensboro could be a nuisance if the Pirates themselves aren’t able to distinguish between the actual good hitters and the park-influenced statistical anomalies.
The fact that they rushed Valdez to the Majors indicates they’ve got an idea of who is actually good versus who is a product of the environment.
One area where I remain adamant that Greensboro offers a downside is with pitching prospects.
Top prospect Seth Hernandez went three innings today, allowing one run, which of course came on a solo homer. Prior to the game, Hernandez had a 1.060 OPS at home, with six homers allowed, versus a .416 OPS on the road with one home run.
Greensboro’s home run tendency isn’t going to make anyone think that Hernandez is anything less than one of the best pitching prospects in the game. And on that note, perhaps none of the hitters at the level will be elevated beyond their expectations coming into the level.
Yet, I see ranking outlets putting Gray in top 100 lists based off his age 22 results at this level, possibly assisted by this park. It makes me wonder wonder how much of the industry would follow suit.
The risk with Hernandez, and every other pitcher throwing half of their games in this home run haven, is that their approach could subtly change, which could impact their game at higher levels.
The same could be said for hitters adjusting to the home run tendencies with an approach that would only result in fly outs in more neutral parks.
It’s not just an evaluation question with Greensboro. It could be a development issue.
Time answers all questions.
Eventually, all of these players will get a shot at the upper levels, and will show whether their power in Greensboro was legitimate or park-assisted.
Lonnie White Jr. is a great example of this.
White also homered on Wednesday, with his homer coming later in the day for Altoona. It was the eighth homer of the year for White in Double-A, after he opened the season with seven homers in 104 plate appearances for Greensboro.
In his age 23 season, White was hitting better at home than on the road in Greensboro, but his numbers weren’t bad at home. The overall results haven’t taken a significant drop in the move to Double-A, with power still showing to be legitimate and an .850 OPS at the level.
How many of the remaining Greensboro power hitters would you bet on having a similar successful jump to Double-A?
Until the next time I go live…
-Tim Williams