The Best Changeup in the Pirates Minor League System

The changeup is the biggest skill pitch, and grading it isn't as straight-forward as other pitches. One pitcher stands out in every aspect, and the results confirm the quality.

What makes a good changeup?

The very definition of the word is a pitch that offers a change of pace from the fastball, aimed at catching batters off-balance.

Is a good changeup simple velocity separation from the fastball? Is it measured in terms of swing and miss potential? Weak contact? Is it a pitch that should get batters to chase out of the zone, or miss inside the zone?

The changeup is almost a breaking pitch. Compared to the fastball, the changeup typically has some late cutting action. It’s not just a slower pitch. The best changeups have some movement deception.

I’ve been measuring the best pitches in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ minor league system.

The fastball measures velocity, how often you throw the pitch in the zone, and how difficult that pitch is to hit.

Breaking pitches tend to aim for chases outside of the zone, while also offering their own change of pace and movement.

The changeup is meant to play off the fastball, looking like a fastball out of the hand and catching hitters off guard with the slower speed and the late break.

You can have different things leading to a quality changeup. In this latest update to the “Best Pitches in the Pirates System” series, I’m not going to jump right into who has the best overall changeup. Instead, I’m going to look at who stands out by different metrics.

Frequency

There are 26 pitchers in the Pirates’ minor league system who have thrown 50 or more tracked changeups. This doesn’t include players who have spent all year in Greensboro and/or Altoona, as Statcast isn’t available at those levels.

Keep that disclaimer in mind for this article, as half of the full-season teams aren’t represented.

Of the sample group, who throws the pitch the most?

Triple-A

The most changeups thrown, by count, goes to Antwone Kelly with 224. Nick Dombkowski is a close second at 204.

When you look at the percentage of overall pitches, Dombkowski throws a changeup 17.3% of the time, versus 16.7% for Kelly. The highest frequency in Triple-A goes to Brandon Eisert, who has 81 changeups tracked this season, not counting his Major League time.

It should be no surprise that two of these pitchers are lefties. The changeup is essential for lefties to throw right-handers off-balance. The right-hander, Kelly, needs a changeup as a starter to avoid getting crushed by left-handers.

Low-A

Jeter Martinez has the highest changeup total in Single-A Bradenton, with 204 pitches thrown. That’s impressive when considering Martinez has spent some time on the injured list this season.

Gavin Adams has thrown 175 changeups, and leads the Single-A level with a 26.9% usage. By comparison, Martinez throws the pitch 19.4% of the time.

Other pitchers who throw the changeup 20% of the time or more: Brandon Cain (21%) and Jack Anker (20.8%).

I’ll note that all four of these pitchers are right-handers. Adams and Cain are relievers, which is rare. Starters need more changeups because of how often they face lefties. A right-handed reliever leaning heavily on a changeup shows comfort with the pitch.

FCL

Yeraldo Salcedo only pitched 7.2 innings in the FCL, then threw 32 innings in Bradenton. He has 152 changeups thrown, with most of those coming in Low-A. The lefty also has the third-highest changeup rate in the system at 29.7%.

Ranking second is Stainer Valdez. The right-handed reliever has the most changeups tracked in the FCL with 99, and throws the pitch 35.6% of the time out of his tracked pitches.

That’s nothing compared to lefty Tony Gonzalez. Promoted from the DSL in late-June, the reliever throws the changeup 68.4% of the time. Gonzalez gets into the issue of pitch tracking in the lowest levels. He has seven recorded fastballs. Those are sinkers, which are similar in velocity and movement to the changeup. It’s possible that Gonzalez doesn’t even throw a changeup, and just uses a sinker that gets classified as a changeup due to the velocity and movement. That would make him a sinker/slider reliever, which makes more sense than a changeup/slider reliever.

This also gets into the core definition of what a changeup actually does.

Velocity Difference

Gonzalez stands out from the entire sample group not just for the recorded changeup usage, but for his velocity difference. There’s only 1.6 MPH difference between his pitches classified as a sinker versus changeup.

He doesn’t really have a changeup. That’s a misclassification at the lowest levels.

For every other pitcher with 50+ changeups, the velocity difference from their fastball ranges from 5.5 to 13.5 MPH, with an average of 7.6 MPH.

Below are the pitchers who are doing the best job of changing pace with the changeup.

Triple-A

Kelly has not only thrown the most changeups, but he gets the largest change in pace for Indianapolis. With a fastball that sits 97.7 MPH, Kelly gets 11.8 MPH of separation with his changeup. That’s second overall in the system.

Khristian Curtis is second for Indianapolis. His fastball sits 95.3 MPH and his changeup has 10.3 MPH of separation.

On the left side, Hunter Barco throws 93.6 MPH, and sits around average with 7.6 MPH of separation.

In each case, and with Barco being relative to the left side, the separation is important for higher velocity pitchers. The changeup acts to throw opposing hitters off the pace of the fastball, so they can’t easily time the velocity.

Low-A

Seth Hernandez leads the system with 13.5 MPH of separation from his 97.1 MPH fastball. Again, this is a high-velocity pitcher who generates separation on the changeup to throw off opposing hitters.

Dariel Francia doesn’t have high velocity, sitting 91 MPH with his fastball. He still gets the third-highest separation, with a 10.4 MPH gap to his changeup. The right-handed reliever also throws a slider at the same velocity range as the changeup.

Other Bradenton pitchers with above-average separation: Jaiker Garcia, Reinold Navarro, Anker, and Adams.

FCL

Separation is a skill. An effective changeup is thrown like the fastball, but with less velocity. The grip leads to the actual change.

Some pitchers throw a changeup by sliding their middle and ring finger over the seams, when they’d normally throw the fastball using their index and middle fingers. Others use a circle change, where their index and thumb form a circle, and the last three digits hold the ball. Some pitchers throw with at least one knuckle gripping the seam, putting less force behind the throw.

At the lowest levels, the changeup is a work-in-progress. Pitchers work to find a grip that feels comfortable, along with the ability to throw the pitch like a fastball to add deception. And they need to do all of this without throwing it at the speed of a fastball, otherwise it’s not a changeup.

I say this to note that only one FCL pitcher has above-average separation, and he spent significant time in Bradenton.

Irwin Ramirez throws a 96.6 MPH fastball, and his changeup gets 10.3 MPH of separation. Ramirez has split his innings about 50/50 between the FCL and Low-A.

The only other FCL pitcher who comes close to average separation is Salcedo, who as I noted above, was also promoted early to the FCL. Salcedo sits 90.7 MPH with his fastball, and gets 6.9 MPH of separation.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the two pitchers in the FCL who can generate separation have moved up. It’s one thing to throw a pitch that is in the 80-90 MPH range and moves like a changeup. It’s another to throw that pitch in a way that it complements your fastball.

Effectiveness

So far, the discussion has been pure theory.

Throwing a changeup often, and throwing with separation from the fastball indicates comfort with the pitch and effectiveness in changing up the pace. It doesn’t guarantee results.

Let’s look at who stands out with actual results, and see if any of the above names show up for the actual quality of the pitch.

Whiffs

There are three pitchers in Triple-A with a whiff rate of 40% or higher on the changeup. Khristian Curtis leads the way at 44.2%, followed by Connor Wietgrefe at 42.6%, and Antwone Kelly at 42.5%.

Kelly and Curtis were mentioned above for separation, and Kelly stood out for usage. Wietgrefe is a lefty who doesn’t stand out for above-average separation or usage, but he does get results.

The top three in Bradenton have significantly better results. Seth Hernandez leads the system with a 70.7% whiff rate. Dariel Francia is second at 63.6%. Reinold Navarro is third at 50%.

All three were mentioned above for separation from the fastball. I’ll note the extreme whiff rates are unlikely to carry to the upper levels. A quality changeup, or even just separation from the fastball, becomes less rare in the upper levels. Hitters in Low-A are just starting to see pitchers who can provide separation and deception. By the time you reach the upper-levels, that becomes standard.

It’s no surprise that the FCL leaders are Irwin Ramirez (60%) and Yeraldo Salcedo (55.1%), who both received promotions to Bradenton. Again, throwing a quality changeup is advanced, and will get you promoted to a level where that’s more common. Stainer Valdez was the only other FCL pitcher with a 40% or higher whiff rate (40.9%) and stood out above for his usage.

Exit Velocity and Contact

Nick Dombkowski leads the way for Indianapolis, with an average 86.3 MPH exit velocity. The lefty reliever uses the changeup often, and it doesn’t get hit hard. That’s good, because his contact, both in the zone and on chases, is among the top ten in the minor league system.

Khristian Curtis (87.3 MPH), Connor Wietgrefe (87.5), Brandon Eisert (87.8), and Hunter Barco (88.1) are all in the 87-88 MPH range. Curtis and Wietgrefe are among the system best in limiting contact in the zone. Curtis and Eisert are among the best at limiting chase contact, with Wietgrefe just outside of the top ten. Curtis ranks fourth in the system at chases. Wietgrefe is not only top ten in chases, but he throws his changeup outside of the zone at the third-highest rate, which is a good combo.

Curtis works more in the zone and limits contact, while getting chases. When he does allow contact, it’s among the lowest rate for the Triple-A group. Wietgrefe uses the changeup as a chase pitch, getting a lot of chases and not a lot of contact in the process. When he’s in the zone, he limits contact on the pitch, and he’s among the best at limiting exit velocity.

I want to point out that Antwone Kelly has the highest exit velocity in the system. While he ranks well in limiting in-zone contact, throws the pitch often, and has separation, opposing hitters crush the pitch when they make contact.

There are better exit velocity results in Low-A, which makes sense considering the opponent quality.

Yonleg Gaetano leads the system with an 84.9 MPH exit velocity. He doesn’t throw the pitch often, and gets below-average separation and only a 19% whiff rate. He also gets some of the most contact in the system. Like Dombkowski, the changeup in this case is more a change of pace pitch to generate bad contact, versus missing bats.

Reinold Navarro ranks second with an 85.1 MPH exit velocity, and does have the tendency to miss bats. Only four pitchers have a better zone contact rate. The downside here is Navarro doesn’t throw the pitch in the zone often, ranking fourth lowest. He also doesn’t get a high amount of chase swings. He could benefit from being in the zone more often.

Dariel Francia stands out for having one of the lowest exit velocities, and one of the lowest contact rates both in the zone and outside of the zone. This is not just a swing and miss offering for Francia, but it’s a pitch that generates weak contact.

By comparison, Seth Hernandez is right up there with Francia for low contact inside the zone and outside of the zone, leading to high whiff rates. The difference is Hernandez has one of the highest exit velocities in the system, allowing damage when the pitch is hit.

The two FCL standouts from before, Ramirez and Salcedo, both rank among the top five hardest hit changeups. However, they also both rank among the five lowest contact rates, both in and out of the zone.

Cesar Aquino stands out as the lowest exit velocity in the FCL. He’s another pitcher who was promoted to Bradenton. He doesn’t get a lot of swing and miss on the changeup, so this is another pitch-to-contact approach. He does get one of the top seven chase rates.

What Makes a Good Changeup?

There are two types of changeups that stand out in the above breakdown.

First, you’ve got a pitch-to-contact offering, aiming at generating bad swings and weak contact.

Then, you’ve got the changeup being treated almost like another breaking pitch from power-pitchers, with higher exit velocities, but extreme whiff rates.

The changeup is more a skill pitch than the fastball or any other breaking pitch. It requires a specific throwing technique that adds deception, and it works in tandem off a separate pitch. Because of the deception, the changeup becomes more difficult to obtain success at higher levels, due to upper-level hitters being more difficult to deceive.

Both the pitch-to-contact and the swing-and-miss changeup offer deception. One tries to completely deceive the hitter, while the other tries to throw them off-balance just enough for an edge. There’s more forgiveness when contact is made on a pitch-to-contact changeup, and there’s less frequency of contact on the swing-and-miss.

Obviously the best changeup has both.

Nick Dombkowski has the best exit velocity in Triple-A, and gets the highest chase rate. He throws a high-contact pitch in and out of the zone. His approach is pitch-to-contact.

By comparison, Antwone Kelly gets above-average whiff rates, above-average swings, and has one of the lowest contact rates in the zone. He’s more of a swing-and-miss changeup thrower, but he also has the worst exit velocity in the system.

Connor Wietgrefe is an example of a pitcher who splits the difference. His EV is 87.3 MPH, which is one mile-per-hour different than Dombkowski. He rates above-average in whiff rate, with a similar rate to Kelly. His chase rate is above-average, and he’s above-average at limiting contact both in and out of the zone.

Wietgrefe might not have above-average separation from his fastball, but his changeup gets above-average results across the board. It’s both a swing-and-miss offering and an offering that works against contact. Wietgrefe has one of the best changeups in the system. It might not be theoretically ideal with maximum separation from the fastball, but it’s a highly effective pitch.

Down in A-ball, the best all-around changeups belong to Reinold Navarro and Dariel Francia. Navarro gets above-average whiff and chase, along with some of the lowest exit velocity in the system. That exit velocity happens when opposing hitters make contact, with Navarro ranking as one of the best at limiting contact. Francia has one of the highest whiff rates, with one of the lowest combined contact rates. He also doesn’t get many swings in the zone, getting free strikes. To cap it off, he has one of the lowest exit velocities in the system.

The usage also tells a story. Navarro only throws the changeup 9.7% of the time. He has an elite 96 MPH fastball and one of the best sliders in the system. He works heavily off the fastball, which I consider the best in the system. His slider is one of the best in the system. His changeup is also one of the best in the lower levels, but I don’t think he would benefit moving away from the fastball to throw more changeups.

Francia, on the other hand, doesn’t have an elite fastball. He sits 91 MPH with a 16.8% whiff rate. He does have a good slider. The changeup is his best pitch. He throws that 19.6% of the time. Francia needs the changeup more than Navarro, in order to keep hitters off-balance from his fastball. Navarro can throw the fastball and it naturally keeps hitters off balance.

It’s difficult to grade the rookie leagues, due to the fact that this level doesn’t often see good changeups, and has batters that are easiest to deceive with separation. I do find it interesting that the Pirates promoted three pitchers who had standout changeups. Cesar Aquino stood out as a pitch-to-contact guy with some of the lowest exit velocity and above-average chase. Irwin Ramirez and Yeraldo Salcedo stood out for swing-and-miss, despite giving up harder contact.

Stainer Valdez stood out with a swing-and-miss offering that doesn’t have bad exit velocity. He also throws the pitch 35.6% of the time. Salcedo throws the pitch 29.7%. Those two have two of the highest usage rates in the system. I’m leery of extreme rates in the lower levels, as it signals the pitcher doesn’t have much more than deception, which doesn’t project well for the upper-levels. Both pitchers sit around 90 MPH with the fastball.

The Best Changeup in the Pirates Minor League System

Khristian Curtis stood out the most throughout this process, and in conclusion, I’d say he has the best changeup in the Pirates’ minor league system.

Curtis is above-average in every key category. He has some of the highest separation, with a 10.3 MPH split from his fastball.

He has an 87.3 MPH exit velocity, which is one of the best rates from the Pirates in Triple-A.

He gets above-average whiff rates, his chase rate is second best in Triple-A, and his zone-swing rate is lowest at the level. The latter means he gets more free strikes, and he throws the pitch in the zone 45.1% of the time, so that’s important.

His contact rates are among the best at the level. His chase contact is the lowest at the level, which pairs well with one of the higher chase rates at the level. His zone-contact is second-lowest at the level at 66.7%. If he throws four changeups in the zone, batters are going to swing at three and make contact with two, and the contact on those two is going to be some of the weakest at the level.

It was only after seeing the raw pitch results that I decided to look up how Curtis fares against lefties. A standout changeup from a right-hander should lead to good results against left-handers.

No surprise, Curtis does significantly better against left-handers than he does against right-handers. He’s faced 185 lefties in the minors this year, with a .194/.303/.252 line between Double-A and Triple-A. His strikeout rate in those plate appearances is 36.8%. Against right-handers, he has a .272/.350/.449 line with a 19.1% strikeout rate.

Even in his one Major League start, Curtis faced a lefty-heavy lineup and went five shutout innings, allowing a .182 average against lefties in that game and striking out two.

What’s interesting about Curtis is that he has a fastball that is above-average and a slider/cutter combo that is also above-average. Neither pitch makes it as one of the best in the system, but they’re not far off.

The changeup stands out as his best pitch, leading to almost a reverse-platoon split. He has the tools to get right-handers out, and if he ever sees an uptick to the quality of his fastball/slider approach, or adds a new weapon against right-handers, he could become a middle-of-the-rotation starter or better.

Without the changeup, he’s looking at a career where he’s Triple-A relief depth, hoping to make it as a middle relief option with velocity and swing and miss potential on the slider.

That’s the importance of a changeup, summed up.

This is a pitch that makes or breaks most aspiring starters. Left-handers can’t make the majors without the pitch. Right-handers have a limited upside in the bullpen without the pitch.

The changeup is the biggest skill pitch, and might be the most important pitch to determine future Major League success.

Until the upcoming week, when I change things up on Pirates Prospects…

-Tim Williams