Swing Decisions, Contact, and Quality
Why Ryan O'Hearn stands out as one of the most well-rounded hitters on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
One of my favorite advanced metrics is O-Swing%. Also known as a chase rate.
This percentage tells how often a hitter will swing at a ball outside of the strike zone. There might not be a better metric that opens the door to quantifying the raw tools of plate patience. Simply put, if a hitter has a below-average chase rate, it indicates he has more control to lay off pitches out of the zone.
It takes more than a month-plus of swing decisions to get a strong enough sample of a player’s abilities. With that disclaimer in place, here are the 2026 Pittsburgh Pirates who have an O-Swing% that is below the 32.3% MLB average.
Ryan O’Hearn - 30.9%
Nick Yorke - 29.4%
Marcell Ozuna - 28.7%
Spencer Horwitz - 26.0%
Bryan Reynolds - 26.0%
Jared Triolo - 15.4%
No stat or skill should be taken singularly.
The six players above have O-Swing rates below the league average, but that alone doesn’t mean they have a good eye to recognize the strike zone. There’s also the possibility they just swing at a below-average rate, showing an overall selective approach across the board.
In the Zone
The MLB averages for swinging in the zone and overall swings are 66.9% and 46.6%, respectively.
Below are those six players again, with their Z-Swing and Overall Swing rates. The above-average metrics are in bold.
O’Hearn - 59.8 / 42.9
Yorke - 71.0 / 46.4
Ozuna - 62.2 / 42.7
Horwitz - 53.4 / 37.0
Reynolds - 65.4 / 41.5
Triolo - 69.2 / 39.3
Across the board, these hitters swing at a below-average rate. Some are around average. Nick Yorke is an interesting profile, with an overall swing rate that is around average, but made up from below-average chase and above-average swings in the zone. That disproportionate ratio suggests Yorke has a good read on the strike zone, and attacks more inside the zone than outside.
By comparison, Spencer Horwitz has one of the lowest swing rates, which comes from swinging well-below average both inside the zone and outside of the zone.
Jared Triolo has a similar profile to Yorke, except he lays off chase swings at an extreme rate, which keeps his overall swing rate below-average.
Bryan Reynolds and Marcell Ozuna are both below-average across the board, with their Z-Swings closer to average than their chase rates.
Ryan O’Hearn is a less extreme version of Horwitz, with below-average swing rates across the board, but nothing extreme on either side.
O’Hearn’s .301 average, .385 on-base percentage, and .463 slugging percentage show that it’s not necessarily a bad thing to be conservative with swinging the bat, so long as you swing at the right pitches.
Making Contact
The league average contact rate is 76.8%. Zone contact is 86.3% and contact on chase swings is 63.0%. Below are those six players again, showing their Overall/Zone/Chase contact, with above-average contact rates in bold.
O’Hearn - 79.8 / 89.0 / 67.3
Yorke - 83.7 / 92.0 / 69.8
Ozuna - 73.5 / 86.2 / 53.4
Horwitz - 85.4 / 96.8 / 69.6
Reynolds - 72.2 / 88.4 / 45.7
Triolo - 80.4 / 88.9 / 50.0
The full picture is starting to come into play, especially with O’Hearn. His contact rates are above-average across the board. He has below-average swing rates across the board, but when he does swing, he’s making contact more than most players, no matter where he swings.
Horwitz is the same story. Despite his extreme hesitation to swing, when he does swing, he makes contact. This comes at an extreme 96.8% contact rate inside the zone.
The other player who stands out here is Yorke. He has a below-average chase rate, an above-average swing rate in the zone, and above-average contact rates across the board. Yorke has a .221/.264/.285 line in 68 at-bats, which means his patience on chase swings and his above-average contact rates haven’t led to results. He does have a 19.2% strikeout rate and a 9.0% walk rate, which is where the swing metrics are showing up.
Ozuna’s issues at the plate become more clear when you see that he’s making below-average contact across the board. The only thing he has going for him right now is that he chases at a below-average rate.
Reynolds is above-average making contact in the zone, but below-average on chase swings to the point that his overall contact rate is below-average. Keep in mind that Reynolds swings below-average across the board, so he’s got a smaller sample size working with his contact rates. He also has an 18.8% walk rate, which is where the low chase rate is playing in a big way.
Triolo makes above-average contact inside the zone, but below-average contact on chase swings. The fact that he doesn’t chase to an extreme rate is a good thing. He’s also one of the rare hitters on the team who swings above-average in the zone while making above-average contact. As shown with Yorke, this doesn’t guarantee success at the plate.
Power Behind the Contact
The final aspect I want to review is the quality of contact. The league average for HardHit% is 39.7%. Exit velocity is 89.1%. Barrel rate is 8.3%. One more look at that group above, with above-average results in bold.
O’Hearn - 47.4 / 90.6 / 7.2
Yorke - 50.0 / 90.7 / 5.6
Ozuna - 38.3 / 88.9 / 8.6
Horwitz - 25.6 / 85.3 / 1.2
Reynolds - 43.5 / 91.5 / 9.4
Triolo - 31.8 / 87.5 / 0.0
The quality of contact from O’Hearn and Reynolds stands out, and explains why they are the second and third best hitters on the team, despite below-average swing rates across the board. Both make above-average contact in the zone, and O’Hearn makes above-average contact on chase swings. When they each make contact, it’s harder contact than most.
Yorke continues to stand out as someone who probably should have better numbers. This is confirmed by looking at his wOBA / xwOBA. He has a .285 wOBA, which ranks ninth on the team. His .329 xwOBA ranks sixth. His xBA was .259 vs a .221 average. His xSLG was .391 vs .309. The Pirates just sent Yorke down when they activated Triolo, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Yorke starts putting up strong numbers in Triple-A with his swing and contact profile. The only problem that stands out is a below-average barrel rate. Beyond that, I have no clue why his numbers weren’t better, other than a possible sample size issue.
Ozuna continues to show his struggles. Below-average swings across the board. Below-average contact across the board. Below-average hard-hit rates and exit velocities. The 35-year-old designated hitter could be showing signs of a steep decline in a hurry, which happens frequently with aging power hitters. He’s still finding barrels, but his barrel might not produce as much power.
Horwitz stands out at the plate for his .362 OBP, which comes from a 15.5% strikeout rate and a 12.9% walk rate. That’s where his low chase rate comes into play. He doesn’t hit for power, with one of the lowest hard hit rates on the team. That’s not just a small sample size this year. He had the same trend last year, as well as during his breakout season with Toronto. He makes above-average contact across the board, but the lack of power is a concern for a player who plays at a power position. The extremely small barrel rate speaks to the quality of contact being low.
Then there’s Triolo, who has below-average power, to go with his above-average contact and swing rates in the zone. It’s a small sample size in 2026, but his career numbers haven’t been much better. This follows a trend that I’ve noticed about Triolo when scouting him live from the minors to his early days in the Majors. Everything about his game is defensive. On the field, he relies upon quick reactions and accurate movements, which allows him to excel at the hot corner. At the plate, he also relies on a reactionary approach, taking swings that wait and react to the ball with a contact approach. The problem is his reaction swings aren’t producing power.
Fortunately, there are new metrics to track a player’s swing, which is something I’ve been waiting to dig into for awhile.
The Statcast Bat Tracking data shows bat speed, the percentage of fast swings, swing length, and quality of contact among other metrics. I’m not going to dive into those metrics in this article, but I’ll save that look for a continuation of this topic.
There are a few regulars who I didn’t mention in this article. Brandon Lowe has been one of the best hitters on the team. Oneil Cruz is hitting for more power this year than any other of his career. Henry Davis is struggling. I don’t want to dive into Konnor Griffin yet, nor do I want to break down the recent performance of Nick Gonzales here. I’ll focus on Lowe/Cruz/Davis to see what their swing/contact/power profiles show.
Brandon Lowe
His 32.4% chase rate is barely above-average. He has a slightly above-average swing rate in the zone, as well as a slightly above-average overall swing rate.
Lowe actually has below-average contact rates across the board. His contact rate is next-to-last on the team both inside the zone and outside of the zone.
The exit velocity is slightly below average at 88.7 MPH, but his hard hit rate of 42.4% is above-average. This helps to explain his extreme power results. Lowe also has the second best barrel rate on the team at 12.9%.
Oneil Cruz
Cruz is a bit more aggressive outside the zone, with a 35.4% chase rate. Despite this, he’s actually below-average swinging inside the zone, to the point where he’s got an overall below-average swing rate.
The contact rates are well-below average across the board, where he’s last place on the team in zone and overall contact.
Cruz might struggle making contact, but he crushes the ball when he connects. His 62.2% hard hit rate and 96.2 exit velocity are the best on the team, as is his 21.1% barrel rate. Cruz isn’t just leading the Pirates. His barrel rate is fifth in the Majors (James Wood, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Munetaka Murakami are ahead of him), his hard hit rate ranks second (Murakami first), and his exit velocity is second (Wood first).
The focus of this article has been on the swinging stats that indicate a good eye, but Cruz stands out for his ability to absolutely crush the ball. He and Lowe might be the best on the team in an article that broke down which stats speak to the power tool.
Henry Davis
Davis has a slightly above-average chase rate at 32.9%. He’s more aggressive inside the zone, with an above-average 71.9% swing rate that ranks third on the team. That brings his overall swing rate up to above-average levels.
The contact rate inside the zone is above-average, to the point where his overall contact rate is above-average. While both of those rank fourth on the team, his chase contact is below-average.
Davis has an above-average exit velocity at 90 MPH, but his 37.3% hard hit rate is below-average. His barrel rate is around average at 8.6%. He’s almost the opposite of Triolo. While Triolo’s swing is more defensive and geared toward reactionary contact, the swing from Davis is aggressive and always in proactive attack mode.
I’m definitely diving into those two with the bat tracking data. For now, I’ll note that Davis has the second highest fast swing rate on the team at 59%, while Triolo has one of the lowest rates at 15%.
My theory is that Triolo would benefit from faster swings more often, which would require him to commit earlier rather than reacting to the ball. By comparison, my theory is Davis would benefit from slowing his swing down a bit, focusing a bit more on making more consistent contact, versus trying to crush every single pitch with an aggressive and almost poorly predictive swing.
Final Look
In the future, I want to take a deeper dive into the performance of Nick Gonzales, Konnor Griffin after more of a sample size, and of course the bat tracking metrics.
O’Hearn stands out in today’s look as one of the most well-rounded hitters on the team. Reynolds is up there with him.
Horwitz and Triolo have issues with their quality of contact, to the point where their focus on making above-average contact might be a detriment. They’re almost safe to a detrimental level.
Ozuna shows a lot of signs that he’s falling off a production cliff at an older age.
Yorke seems like a guy who is a swing adjustment away from being a really good Major League hitter.
Cruz and Lowe stand out with power production that makes up for the below-average contact abilities.
Davis is the opposite of Triolo and Horwitz, with a detrimental level of aggression in his swing.
I wouldn’t suggest Cruz and Lowe aim for more contact, out of concern that they could disrupt the power approach that is working. O’Hearn and Reynolds are both well-balanced.
The rest of the hitters could benefit from tipping the scales a bit and escaping their respective extremes, which aren’t productive on the aggressive power-seeking side, nor the safe contact approach.
Until the next time I go live…
-Tim Williams