Small Sample Sizes

Pirates win, but wake me up when April ends

I’ve been enjoying baseball every night on the back porch.

Last night, I couldn’t do it.

It’s not that the Pirates were down early on a rare off-night from Paul Skenes.

It was simply too cold.

Saying it’s cold when the temperature drops below 70 degrees shows how much living in Florida for years has impacted my sense of temperature. I’d likely die the first winter living in Pittsburgh, if I ever moved.

How baseball players can handle the weather is beyond me.

The weather was cold in Pittsburgh last night for both teams, though the cold weather was more extreme than what we get down here in this lawless state ruled by theme parks and the remnants of dinosaurs.

I’m not making excuses for the individual game, merely pointing out that this is not baseball weather.

The month of April is my least favorite in baseball. All winter, the focus goes toward baseball returning. Humans love first impressions, and the moment the season begins, we baseball fans look for a season of hope based on those early results.

Such an anticipatory approach leaves room to place too much emphasis on small sample sizes.

During April, those sample sizes are worthless. Aside from the volatility that can over-emphasize a single day, the month is chaos when it comes to barometric pressure shifts. It’s hot ever day in July, and they don’t play baseball when it rains. In April, players need to deal with warm weather one week, cold weather the next, and maintain the consistency we expect every day from this summer sport.

Thinking back to former Pirates first baseman Adam LaRoche, it was nearly automatic that he would start slow in April, only to heat up with the weather. That always made me wonder if certain players are impacted by barometric pressure changes.

Again, I’m not making a point about last night’s game. Skenes, for example, has had success in the cold, and just had an off night. The offense was good on a cold evening the night before, only to struggle the next night.

And I’m not even looking at the stats at this point. You can find more reasonable analysis of baseball during the month of April in the following video than you could in a sample of less than 20 innings or less than 50 at-bats.

"There have been many comebacks throughout history: Jesus was dead, but then came back as an all-powerful God zombie; Ryan O'Neal had his ups and downs, but is now back and better than ever. Well, my comeback is almost complete, and I can say that when it is complete, it will shake the pillars of this land or town. My story is the story of a raging Christ figure who tore himself off the cross and looked at the Romans, with blood in his eyes, and said, My turn now, cocksuckers."
- Kenny Powers

FROM KELLER TO Z

As I write this, I’m watching the Pirates take on the Cardinals. Some observations from the game:

• With the rise of the torpedo bats, hitters have more forgiveness when putting the barrel on the ball. This is going to make it especially important for pitchers to attack the edges and corners of the zone. Those areas are difficult for hitters to contort their bodies and get the barrel around to the ball. It’s far from easy for a pitcher to hit those spots. Mitch Keller has always excelled at hitting those edges. That’s why he’s going to be an above-average pitcher in this league for a long time. Today was a great outing, with Keller shutting down the Cardinals for 7.1 innings, before being pulled after allowing two runners to reach to begin the eighth inning. It was the exact start the Pirates needed.

• Tsung-Che “Z” Cheng is smooth at the shortstop position. He’s got the skills to play at the big league level defensively, and could be the best defender at the position on the team right now. Offensively, I’m writing this after one at-bat, and with the above disclaimer of sample sizes. Cheng has some of the best hand-eye coordination in the game, and an advanced ability to judge balls and strikes. He can hit for average, but that comes from more of a defensive approach that plays up his abilities for contact. If the young hitter from Taiwan develops the confidence to attack pitches in the zone more frequently, he will remain in the majors. For now, the defense and speed should give him some opportunities to show what else he can do at the big league level.

• After typing that about Cheng, he reached on an error after taking an outside pitch the other way, with the third baseman playing in and unable to handle the shot. He tried stealing second base, and almost made it. Replay review showed that he brought his arm up from his body as the tag was coming in, which put his arm in the path of the opponent’s glove just before his foot hit the base. If he kept his arm close to his body, he’d be safe. Close play. I thought he made it before the replay.

• One of the best signs I’ve seen early in the season has been the defense from Ke’Bryan Hayes. Last year, Hayes was clearly dealing with a back injury, which affected his defense in a negative way from the start of the season. The fact that the Gold Glove defense has returned this year is a great sign for his health. He had a great barehanded play earlier in the game on a slow roller, completed by a great stretch at first base by Endy Rodriguez to complete the out.

• Literally as I was typing that paragraph, Rodriguez and Hayes were involved in a crazy play at the plate. Rodriguez charged in to field a pop up that was behind the plate, and clearly Joey Bart’s ball, who was settling under the pop-up to make the out. Rodriguez collided with Bart and the ball fell into play. The runner from second tried to score, but Hayes ignored the car crash at the plate, quickly found the ball, and tagged out the runner before he could cross the plate, ending the inning. That was not a good play by Rodriguez, who is a natural catcher and rarely has played first base. It was another example of the Gold Glove approach by Hayes.

• Heading to the 12th inning, this game alone has almost grown into a sample size worth considering legitimate. The Pirates had runners on first and second with a shallow hit to right field by Bart. Alexander Canario was being sent around third to score with a full wave from third base coach Mike Rabelo at the same time the right fielder was fielding the ball in the shallow part of the outfield. Canario was out by a mile. That’s not the aggressive send home you want with one out. To be fair, the Pirates benefitted earlier from a similar play on a ball hit shallow to Tommy Pham.

• Joey Bart wins it with a walk off hit in the bottom of the 13th.

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There’s a common theme which was on display today. A lot of fundamental mistakes were made throughout this game. The big one was the play by Rodriguez colliding with Bart.

For a team whose catch phrase this year is “winning in the margins”, the Pirates have room for improvement.

Giving up an out at the plate on an aggressive send, in the same way that you received an out earlier, was an example of throwing away those marginal victories.

The defense did help to win in the margins, and that was even on display with Hayes during the Rodriguez/Bart play.

When the offense was needed in the 12th and 13th innings, they came through.

The Pirates won 2-1 and took the series from the Cardinals. That’s all that really matters.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams