Have the Pirates Actually Upgraded?
Yes, obviously, but how much and where they've upgraded is an issue.
At the start of the offseason, the Pittsburgh Pirates did something they haven’t done in years: They added a legitimate MLB player to their roster in December.
The Pirates traded pitcher Mike Burrows in a three-team deal that brought back second baseman Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum, and left-handed reliever Mason Montgomery.
Earlier in the offseason, they made another trade from their pitching depth, dealing Johan Oviedo to the Red Sox for top 100 prospect Jhostynxon Garcia, who has a chance to play in Pittsburgh’s outfield this year.
With Lowe already added to the right side of the infield, the Pirates turned to the free agent market, signing first baseman Ryan O’Hearn to a two-year, $29 million deal. It was the first multi-year deal signed in Ben Cherington’s seven offseasons as General Manager of the Pirates. It was also the first multi-year free agent signing by the Pirates since Ivan Nova in December 2016. The $29 million to O’Hearn was the largest free agent deal since Nova.
The additions of Lowe and O’Hearn added two players who combined for 48 home runs in 2025 to a team that finished last in the Majors in homers.
One thing is perfectly clear.
For the first time in nearly a decade, the Pirates are active in trying to bring in Major League players who could help them contend.
They’ve also been linked to a lot of top free agents, albeit every one of those stories ends with the Pirates telling their beat writers to report about how close they were to landing a Kyle Schwarber or a Eugenio Suarez.
The latest free agent they were linked to was Framber Valdez, which was a rumor that didn’t last a single day before he signed elsewhere.
One rumor that did pan out was the interest in Marcell Ozuna. After Suarez signed with the Cincinnati Reds, the Pirates’ reported interest shifted to Ozuna. On Monday morning, a day before Spring Training, the Pirates added Ozuna on a one-year, $12 million deal, which includes an option for the 2027 season.
Have things changed for the Pirates?
Are they finally trying to contend in year seven of Cherington’s rebuild, after sitting quiet during the first two years of the career of generational pitcher Paul Skenes?
Or, have they set the bar so low over the last decade that even the slightest resemblance of acting like a Major League team would give the impression that they’re making significant upgrades?
The Pirates 2026 Upgrades
The Pirates have been one of the worst offenses in the league for years.
It wasn’t just the 2025 season where they finished last in home runs and second-to-last in offensive run value.
During Cherington’s entire tenure from 2020-2025, the Pirates have combined for the second-worst offense in baseball, while finishing last in home runs — trailing the next-best team by 54 homers.
Adding a 30-home run hitter like Brandon Lowe is going to draw attention. Ryan O’Hearn coming off a 3-WAR season is going to draw attention. An aging Marcell Ozuna is going to draw attention.
Even the addition of a top prospect like Jhostynxon Garcia will add attention when paired with the hype surrounding a minor league system, which is led by hitting prospects for the first time in years. Garcia and top prospect Konnor Griffin could both boost the MLB club at some point in 2026.
It’s easy to draw attention with offensive additions when you’ve been purely offensive for years on the offensive side of the game.
And it’s easy to draw attention when you’re adding Major League players for the first time in a decade.
But the Pirates haven’t exactly been upgrading in the right areas.
Last season, the MLB average for hitters was a .313 wOBA and a 100 wRC+.
The Pirates only had three hitters above the average wOBA: Spencer Horwitz, Joey Bart, and Bryan Reynolds. Only Horwitz and Bart finished above the wRC+ number. Reynolds was one point below. Andrew McCutchen and Tommy Pham were just below average in both stats. Let’s call the five of them average or better.
The top five Pirates hitters in 2025:
Spencer Horwitz - .344 wOBA / 119 wRC+
Joey Bart - .317 wOBA / 101 wRC+
Bryan Reynolds - .315 wOBA / 99 wRC+
Andrew McCutchen - .309 wOBA / 95 wRC+
Tommy Pham - .308 wOBA / 94 wRC+
By comparison, here is how the new additions fared:
Ryan O’Hearn - .349 wOBA / 127 wRC+
Brandon Lowe - .334 wOBA / 114 wRC+
Marcell Ozuna - .334 wOBA / 114 wRC+
Jake Mangum - .307 wOBA / 95 wRC+
All together now:
Ryan O’Hearn - .349 wOBA / 127 wRC+
Spencer Horwitz - .344 wOBA / 119 wRC+
Brandon Lowe - .334 wOBA / 114 wRC+
Marcell Ozuna - .334 wOBA / 114 wRC+
Joey Bart - .317 wOBA / 101 wRC+
Bryan Reynolds - .315 wOBA / 99 wRC+
Andrew McCutchen - .309 wOBA / 95 wRC+
Tommy Pham - .308 wOBA / 94 wRC+
Jake Mangum - .307 wOBA / 95 wRC+
O’Hearn comes with the disclaimer that 2025 was a career year, and the 2023-24 seasons were closer to the numbers by Lowe/Ozuna.
Lowe has been consistent at that level for the last three years, and represents the best upgrade the Pirates have made. Last year, Pirates second basemen combined for a .283 wOBA and a 78 wRC+. The most common starter, Nick Gonzales, recorded .289/82. Lowe is not only an above-average hitter, but he upgraded over below-average production.
Ozuna took a step back in 2025, during his age 34 season. He had a 4.7 fWAR in 2024, with a .395 wBOA and a 154 wRC+, but dropped to numbers in 2025 that were closer to his career totals. That drop also came with a declining hard hit rate and exit velocities, both in the range of his 2022 season when he was below-average.
Mangum is almost a mirror image of the production from McCutchen and Pham. However, the addition of Ozuna, who is a DH-only, will crowd the roster enough that it will likely make Mangum a fourth outfielder, which would be his role on a contender.
The addition of Ozuna also makes it less likely that Garcia has an impact on this roster. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Top 100 prospect status aside, a rookie like Garcia shouldn’t be expected to arrive in the Majors and relied upon to put up above-average results. At best, he debuts at the McCutchen/Pham/Mangum level, while adding some excitement for what improvements the future could bring.
The best case for above-average production from a prospect might be from Griffin. The top prospect in baseball has received rave reports all offseason about being a generational hitting prospect. The Pirates just watched Skenes, a generational pitcher, defy the odds with two of the best seasons in MLB history in his first two years in the Majors. Such expectations for the 20-year-old Griffin should be limited to hopes and dreams rather than expectations and cornerstones of a contending Pirates team in 2026.
It’s easy to upgrade one of the worst offenses in the game, and the Pirates have upgraded by adding three hitters who would have been in their top four last year.
That said, their upgrades aren’t as significant as you’d expect when adding three above-average hitters.
A CROWDED RIGHT SIDE
Last offseason, the best move the Pirates made was trading from their pitching depth to acquire Spencer Horwitz. The first baseman was the best hitter among their abysmal offense, putting up almost identical numbers to what he produced in Toronto a year earlier.
If Hopium is your drug of choice, Horwitz got better in the second half, with a .395 wOBA and a 154 wRC+. Among 26 qualified MLB first basemen, only Nick Kurtz had better numbers during that stretch. O’Hearn was on that list, ranking 19th.
The road to hell is paved with Pirates hitters who went on a tear the final two months of the season, only to never replicate those numbers again. A year from now, Horwitz could look like the first base version of Chris Duffy.
All of that said, you would have been justified to have hope that Horwitz could have been a player to build around in 2026.
By adding O’Hearn, the Pirates crowded the one area where they were getting production in 2025.
The addition of Ozuna further crowds that group.
Ozuna hasn’t played in the field since 2023, so he’s expected to be a DH-only. That means the Pirates will have to choose between Horwitz and O’Hearn at first base. Defensively, O’Hearn is the better option. Horwitz has played second base in the past, but that spot is taken by Lowe.
In adding Ozuna to the mix, the Pirates will now have to take O’Hearn, their biggest free agent in a decade, and move him to the outfield, where he’s never played a full season in the Majors. Who knows what that will do to the production from the 32-year-old, but it’s a necessary move now to keep Horwitz in the lineup.
While the Pirates have added upgrades to their offense, the roster construction makes little sense.
Based on the production last year, Horwitz and O’Hearn are the best hitters on the team. There is reason to be skeptical of those performances. Horwitz has put up good numbers over the last two seasons, but the combined plate appearances amount to a little over one full season. O’Hearn had a career year in 2025, and might slip to Lowe/Ozuna levels if he falls back to 2023-24 levels. Possibly worse if the wear and tear from the outfield takes away from the bat.
Let’s not forget Jake Mangum. He’s probably a fourth outfielder on a contending team, and he’s now in that role with the Pirates. Mangum replaces what the Pirates had with Pham last season, but with O’Hearn likely needed in the outfield, the role would be lessened for Mangum. That’s not bad depth, but depth is a luxury when you have holes in the lineup.
Outside of the addition of Lowe, the Pirates haven’t significantly upgraded any spot in their lineup.
Lowe replaced a below-average position and a below-average starter with above-average historical production. That’s a textbook example of upgrading one of the worst offenses in the game.
Beyond Lowe, the relative upgrades have been minimal.
Yes, the Pirates committed $41 million to the duo of O’Hearn and Ozuna. However, those two are upgrading Pham and McCutchen. The moves here take the Pirates from average production to above-average production, which isn’t the best usage of a large chunk of a limited budget.
They had five average-ish or better hitters in 2025. They’ve replaced two of those hitters with the new guys. They created a question of playing time with the best returning hitter, which will be answered by playing their biggest free agent out of position.
What’s left unsaid is the gaping hole that remains on the left side of the infield.
Two Reasons Left to Be Skeptical
The Pirates have increased their payroll this offseason, though the increase isn’t as extreme as you’d expect with their spending.
Their estimated payroll for 2026 is $105 million, which is about $10 million higher than the 2025 payroll.
The Pirates shed salary at the 2025 trade deadline, sending out David Bednar and Ke’Bryan Hayes, and cutting $16 million in the process.
This is also a team that shed the 2025 salaries of Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($7.5 million), Andrew Heaney ($5.25 million), Andrew McCutchen ($5 million), Tommy Pham ($4.025 million), and Bailey Falter ($2.222 million), with Falter also being dealt at the trade deadline. They saved over $7 million by parting with Caleb Ferguson, Adam Frazier (deadline deal), Colin Holderman, and Ryan Borucki.
Aside from O’Hearn ($14 million in 2026) Ozuna ($12 million), and Lowe ($11.5 million), the Pirates have added left-handed reliever Gregory Soto this offseason ($7.75 million).
After all of that shuffling, the Pirates have only marginally increased their spending.
With a likely MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement battle coming next offseason, and with the Pirates being the target of a spending grievance from the MLBPA, they needed to spend something this offseason, while making the loud appearance that they were trying to spend money on guys like Schwarber and Valdez.
Their additions this offseason addressed strengths, while leaving out the obvious weak areas of the team.
In an article that has focused so much on offense, Ke’Bryan Hayes doesn’t fit in. He was one of the worst hitters in the game last season. He also won his second Gold Glove award at third base in the last three years.
Currently, the Pirates have no answer at third base. The best hope is that Jared Triolo can replicate the defense of Hayes. That hope comes with a near-promise that Triolo’s offense will be on the same level as Hayes. The Pirates downgraded a defensive strength, and none of their spending thus far has upgraded the third base position.
Lowe is an upgrade over Nick Gonzales at second base, but it’s uncertain whether Gonzales will be out of the lineup. Right now, he’s one of the best options at shortstop, where his bat would remain in the lineup, and his defense would be a downgrade. The Pirates could try Triolo at short, but they’d be worse off at third base.
This is where the upgrades fail to look like upgrades. The Pirates haven’t replaced their lowest performing hitters, and they have created weakness on the left side of the infield, which will inevitably hurt the pitching staff that has been their strength.
It’s not that Lowe, O’Hearn, and Ozuna are bad players — far from it.
The problem is poor roster construction and application of limited resources.
The Pirates had less of a hole at first base and DH than they did at third base or shortstop. It would have been easier to upgrade the outfield with less money than they spent to play O’Hearn out of position.
Soto’s addition, and the trade for Mason Montgomery, helped to offset the bullpen loss of Bednar, who had been one of the better relievers in the game for years. They added Rafael Flores in the Bednar trade, and Flores shows some promise at the plate. He also further crowds the 1B/DH scene, unless he pushes Joey Bart out of the lineup, which would again lead to an attempt to upgrade one of the rare above-average hitters in the 2025 lineup.
The Pirates have increased payroll, and they have added good players.
But this is still a team that will rely on Triolo and Gonzales for two of the most important positions on the field.
You could parse the stats of both players to try and find upside. You could also start dreaming on the instant impact provided by 20-year-old Konnor Griffin, which is an unreasonable expectation for any prospect.
The problem with hoping for upside is that you have to also embrace the potential for downside. The offseason additions have more potential for downside than they do upside.
O’Hearn is probably not going to repeat his career year from 2025. The best you can hope for is that he does repeat the above-average production from the previous two seasons, while being worked in the outfield for the first time at age 32.
Ozuna is coming off a season where his production fell across the board, and you hope it stops there. His underlying metrics in 2025 matched two recent seasons where he was below-average. He’s also a right-handed power hitter going from the ninth best park for right-handers to the 22nd best park with PNC’s spacious left field.
Lowe has been consistent, and is probably the safest bet of the three to remain at his productivity level, but he’s also seen his walk rate plummet the last two seasons. That will put more of his value on the variance of balls in play. Still, even if he declines to average production, he’s an upgrade over the 2025 production at second base.
Even the addition of Soto to the bullpen brings a player who has seen an increase in hits allowed over the last two seasons, and who is years removed from his All-Star campaigns.
The downside potential with these additions doesn’t change the fact that the Pirates have upgraded. It just highlights the problem with their upgrades.
The Pirates spent $26 million in 2026 on Ozuna and O’Hearn to upgrade over two average hitters with above-average hitters. Any decline with Ozuna or O’Hearn would negate the upgrade, meaning the Pirates would just be spending more money for the same production as they had in 2025.
With obvious holes at third base and shortstop, they could have used that money to add a player who would have upgraded the weakest spots on the roster, even with the threat of a decline to average performance.
That would have been significant.
These upgrades that the Pirates actually made highlight poor roster construction.
Perhaps they should be cut a little bit of slack, though.
In seven years under Cherington, this is the first time they’ve actually tried to put a winning roster together. They shouldn’t be expected to get it right on the first try.
Especially since this is their first attempt at spending money in nearly a decade.
Until the next time I go live…
-Tim Williams
That's big fat colossal miss by you on this analysis. The Pirates went from the worst offense in baasebll to top 5. The offseaason additions, with the exception of Ozuna, have had a huge impact on the turnaround. Practically everything you said has turned out to be wrong.
Not defensively!! Let’s go mets!!