Another Quick Pitch
Checking up on the Pirates and the top performers among the Pirates Prospects.
I’ve been working on a special project.
It may or may not already be online for a silent launch as I test the work.
Feel free to check it out.
Long-time readers know where to check.
Today will be the first time I use that project for an article.
My focus? Pittsburgh Pirates stat leaders who standout at each level after the first two months of the season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
-Brandon Lowe continues to impress with his power, leading the team with 13 home runs, while also leading with a .905 OPS. He has been a great pickup, and the fact the Pirates also got Mason Montgomery and Jake Mangum in the deal was a steal.
-Spencer Horwitz has been on a great run over the last month, batting .300/.400/.500 with three homers. Even better, his walk rate of 13.7% is higher than his strikeout rate of 11.6%.
-Konnor Griffin is also heating up, batting .286/.349/.429 with two homers over the last month. He has also been the most valuable player on the bases this season, adding 12 steals.
-Nick Gonzales continues batting .300 with a high OBP and good fielding results. That’s more than enough to have positive value as a third baseman, though his profile of no-power and all contact could lead to some BABIP-induced slumps.
-Paul Skenes has had a few rough starts lately, which shows he’s human. He has a 3.00 ERA on the season, which only looks bad in comparison to his video game numbers the last two years.
-Braxton Ashcraft has been a huge standout, with a 2.89 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 62.1 innings. Perspective is gained when you notice Ashcraft and Skenes have similar stats, with one player looking like a breakout and the other player looking like he’s in a slump.
-Wilber Dotel and Evan Sisk are two sleeper relievers in a bullpen that needs help. Dotel stands out for being a right-hander in a year where no other Pirates right-handed relievers are performing well.
-Gregory Soto has looked good in the closer role, with five saves and a 2.31 ERA over the last month. This only compounds the bullpen concerns, by placing the only reliable reliever in a limited role.
Indianapolis Indians
-Esmerlyn Valdez was just promoted to Pittsburgh, after destroying Triple-A pitching this year. He had 10 doubles and 10 home runs in 194 PA in Indianapolis, with an .887 OPS.
-Rafael Flores, who was the main return for David Bednar at last year’s trade deadline, has struggled at the plate. He has four home runs and a .649 OPS in 183 plate appearances, which isn’t great for a poor defense catcher whose power is his ticket to the big leagues.
-Antwone Kelly seems like a pitcher who would be better out of the bullpen. He’s a starter in Triple-A with an ERA over 5, but could be an option for the Pirates’ right-handed relief woes.
-Hunter Barco looks like the best rotation depth option in Triple-A. The lefty has a 3.00 ERA in 18 innings since returning to Triple-A, though he has been limited to shorter outings, and might be seen as more of a swingman by the team.
Altoona Curve
-Lonnie White Jr. has been one of the better stories in the Pirates’ minor league system this year. After hitting seven homers with a 1.008 OPS in Greensboro, he was promoted to Altoona, where he has four homers and a .914 OPS.
-Jesus Castillo was batting .300 with an .800 OPS before going on the injured list early this month. He’s currently rehabbing with the Bradenton Marauders.
-Khristian Curtis leads the team with 50 strikeouts, but his 5.82 ERA and 1.6 HR/9 have been a problem. The hard-throwing Curtis seems like he could be a deep sleeper for right-handed relief work in Pittsburgh.
-Matt Ager was promoted from Greensboro, after a 4.67 ERA in 17.1 innings in relief. He has since posted a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings with Altoona, getting work as a starter.
Greensboro Grasshoppers
-Wyatt Sanford is a top prospect in the system, and the 20-year-old shortstop has fared well. He has six homers, 17 stolen bases, and a .910 OPS, though his 35.3% strikeout rate is something to work on.
-Axiel Plaz has been one of the better lower-level sleepers the last few seasons. The 20-year-old catcher is hitting for a .983 OPS with eight homers in 158 plate appearances, and an encouraging 20% strikeout rate compared to a 7% walk rate.
-Seth Hernandez might easily be the top prospect in the system right now. After dominating Bradenton with a 0.96 ERA, the 19-year-old has a 3.52 ERA in his first 7.2 innings with Greensboro. I’ll add that I don’t remember many instances where a top pitching prospect in the Pirates’ system pitched in High-A at such a young age, both physical-age or experience-age.
-Connor Oliver has stood out on the Greensboro pitching staff, ranking second with 41 strikeouts and first with a 1.38 ERA. He’s a 24-year-old lefty, and has some control problems, but could be an interesting relief option in the upper levels.
Bradenton Marauders
-Murf Gray was promoted to Greensboro, after hitting eight homers with a 1.042 OPS in Bradenton. He’s continued bashing the ball in his first five games at the higher level, but Double-A will be the true test for the 22-year-old infielder.
-Dylan Palmer leads the Pirates’ organization with 21 stolen bases, batting .284/.392/.381. The second baseman was drafted in the 11th round last year out of Hofstra.
-Jack Anker has won FSL Pitcher of the Week twice this year. Last year’s sixth round pick out of Fresno State has a 3.48 ERA and a 26:6 K/BB in 31 innings for Bradenton this season.
-Levi Sterling is showing some potential with 38 strikeouts, which ties for the team lead now that Hernandez is gone. The 19-year-old right-hander threw five no-hit innings for the Marauders in a rain-shortened game on Sunday.
FCL Pirates
-Johan De Los Santos has been the standout in the early FCL season. The 17-year-old has been hitting .341/.481/.561 with 11 stolen bases in his debut in the US, while spending two games with Bradenton recently where he went 3-for-10 with a homer and two steals.
-Bralyn Brazoban, one of the top signings from the 2024 international free agent class, is putting up good numbers this year. Brazoban has a .310/.362/.595 line with four triples standing out in his stat line.
-Wifrailyn Jaquez has a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 innings across four starts. The 19-year-old right-hander hasn’t gone more than three innings in a start, but leads the team in ERA.
-Ronaldys Jimenez leads the team in strikeouts with 13 in 9.1 innings, while having an impressive .182 BAA. The 20-year-old lefty was acquired for Martin Perez two years ago, and is in his second FCL season.
System Thoughts
Maybe I’ve changed as I’ve grown older.
Maybe I’m less of a dreamer than I once was.
This system just feels very thin.
Seth Hernandez is one of the few standout elite prospects.
Players like Edward Florentino, Wyatt Sanford, and Levi Sterling show various levels of potential.
Lonnie White might be the best breakout player so far, but he has little competition.
Murf Gray needs to be hitting in Altoona before I’d call him a breakout, at least in the sense of showing future potential for the Majors.
Axiel Plaz might be the only other candidate on the breakout list, but he’s just continuing what he’s quietly been doing the last two seasons.
Granted, the Pirates have already promoted Konnor Griffin and Esmerlyn Valdez. Technically, Bubba Chandler graduated from prospect eligibility this season.
And if a system is going to be thin, I’d rather be thin with elite names at the top of the ranks followed by very little depth.
But this system is thin.
The depth is weak.
The top-heavy approach will hide the weakness, but the lack of depth will prevent the Pirates from having St. Louis Cardinals or Milwaukee Brewers type success, with surprises emerging from their system.
And that will mostly show up with the big league team lacking in areas of depth — such as having a weak bullpen that the system can’t fix internally.
I’ve predicted 78 wins all season, and the Pirates continue staying above .500.
The MLB team follows the same approach as the system, being top-heavy with poor depth.
My below .500 win prediction is due to the concern that, across a long season, the lack of depth could send the Pirates into a slump at some point.
The 2026 season is 33.33% completed.
The next third is a timeframe that has cooled many Pirates hot starts.
We’re entering the most important stretch of the season. The true test of whether the Pirates can contend. And a period where they will need to be active in finding help for their bullpen.
It’s still a long season.
Until the next time I go live…
-Tim Williams