The Pirates Need Bullpen Help at the Trade Deadline

Reviewing the first half pitching results shows a Pittsburgh Pirates rotation that's working and a bullpen that needs help.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best offenses in the game this season.

Their pitching staff has been lagging behind.

Overall, the Pirates pitchers rank 8th in fWAR. Their team ERA ranks 20th, while their team FIP ranks 11th. The difference is due to poor fielding, which is one of the sacrifices the Pirates made across the board for a better offense.

Starting pitching leads the way for the Pirates. The rotation has a 9.8 WAR, ranking fifth. Their ERA is 12th and FIP is 5th, again displaying the impact of poor defense.

Problems emerge with this team once you get to the bullpen. The Pirates rank 19th in relief pitching WAR. Fielding isn’t playing an impact with the relievers. The ERA ranks 23rd, with the FIP 21st.

The Pirates need pitching help. Bullpen help, to be precise.

Yesterday, I broke down what was working with the offense. Today, I’m taking a detailed look at the pitching.

The Starting Rotation

Paul Skenes
Rank: 7th / 134 SP w/50+ IP
Stats: 3.57 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 1.99 BB/9, 108.1 IP

Skenes is having a down year, relative to his Rookie of the Year and Cy Young results in his first two seasons. That perspective is needed. It’s not that Skenes is having a bad year by any measure. He just set the bar so high at the start of his career that any struggles and even above-average results will bring on doomsday fears.

In 20 starts, Skenes has a 3.57 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 10.8 K/9, and a 1.99 BB/9 in 108.1 innings. His numbers aren’t bad below the surface, and his FIP shows he’s been negatively impacted by the defense. He allows the lowest exit velocity in the rotation, the second-lowest barrel rate, and the second-lowest hard hit rate.

The last two seasons have shown that there’s another level for Skenes, where he pitches among the best in the game. The defense this season might not allow that down the stretch. Even without the defensive impact, Skenes isn’t getting hit hard, he’s putting up good secondary numbers, and even in a down year, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. Maybe he can challenge for the number one spot in the second half.

Braxton Ashcraft
Rank: 12th / 134
Stats: 3.49 ERA, 10.16 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 113.1 IP

Ashcraft represents the other side of the Skenes perspective. The numbers between the two are almost identical. Ashcraft has an edge in some areas, and Skenes has an edge in others. The season from Ashcraft isn’t regarded as disappointing, and doesn’t draw concern. That’s because Ashcraft is exceeding pre-season expectations, versus Skenes ending up below the high bar he set the last two years.

The defense has less of an impact on Ashcraft than Skenes, which means it’s unlikely Ashcraft has a path toward improvement in the second half. He really doesn’t need it. What Ashcraft has been doing this year has helped lead the Pirates to their overall pitching success. They might not have the very best pitcher in the game this year, but they have two of the top twelve starters. Only the Phillies are better, with two in the top six.

Ashcraft does come with one minor concern: Innings. He’s at 113.1 innings this year. He combined for 118 last year between Triple-A and the MLB bullpen. His 2024 season had 73 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John. He never pitched more than 53 innings in a season before that. We’re starting to enter uncharted territory with Ashcraft as a starter.

Mitch Keller
Rank: 78th / 134
Stats: 5.14 ERA, 6.71 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 103.1 IP

Keller’s performance is where the Pirates are hurt the most in the rotation this year. He’s never been one of the best pitchers in the game, but Keller has been one of the most reliable pitchers. His results the last four seasons were league-average or better, with around 177 innings per season.

This year, Keller is covering innings, but his results are well below average. Some of that is due to the defense behind him, but even his FIP has declined. His walk rate is up a bit, while the strikeouts are down to a career-low. The latter isn’t good, as it puts more emphasis on the defense that drives his ERA higher.

In the past, Keller has been a better pitcher in the first half. His career ERA has been 4.30 in the first half, 5.04 in the second half, and August has been his worst month with a 5.90 ERA. The Pirates need him to reverse the trend this year, having a good second half after struggling in the first half.

Bubba Chandler
Rank: 90th / 134
Stats: 4.85 ERA, 7.89 K/9, 5.36 BB/9, 89.0 IP

One hundred and twenty five point two innings. That’s what I want to highlight about Chandler. Immediate results from guys like Skenes and Ashcraft are rare. Most pitchers need a few hundred innings in the big leagues before they begin to settle. Chandler has 125.2 innings in his career.

Most of those innings have come this season. His strikeout rate is down compared to his limited results last year, and lower than any level in the minors. His walk rate has significantly increased, going higher than any season outside of his pro debut in 2022. What I find interesting is Chandler has the lowest hard hit rate in the rotation, third-lowest barrel rate to Skenes and Ashcraft, and the second lowest exit velocity to Skenes.

Chandler is a wild card. I don’t think he should be expected to arrive in the majors and pitch his first full season without struggles. He needs to cut down on walks and increase the strikeouts. Opponents aren’t hitting him hard, which is encouraging. If that trend continues, and if his K/BB ratios improve, he could provide a boost in the second half.

Jared Jones
Rank: Unqualified
Stats: 4.37 ERA, 10.03 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 35.0 IP

Jones is returning from an elbow injury, and has arguably been the third-best pitcher in the rotation since his return. There are innings limit concerns. Jones didn’t require Tommy John, but the Pirates are easing him back into the rotation. His final start before the break saw six perfect innings, but he’s been limited to five or less in every other start, with most starts limited to four innings.

The Pirates have been splitting Jones with Carmen Mlodzinski, who he replaced in the rotation. This allows them to start Jones with a reduced inning workload. The downside is that it limits Mlodzinski to a very specific role, which overlooks the fact he’s one of the better relievers in the bullpen.

Jones is showing why the Pirates gave him the rotation spot. He will have some innings concerns, but gives the Pirates a great number three option to Skenes and Ashcraft in the second half.

Long Relief

Carmen Mlodzinski
Stats: 3.24 ERA, 7.14 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 80.2 IP

There was a lot of controversy with the way the Pirates handled Mlodzinski when Jones returned. Part of that was due to Mlodzinski not wanting to move out of the rotation. Mlodzinski was one of the best performers in the rotation, but was moved to the bullpen with the Pirates betting on the upside of Jones. The long-relief role given to Mlodzinski limited his ability to be used in leverage situations. His current role almost wastes one of the better pitchers on the roster with very specific usage that can’t possibly predict when one of the better pitchers would be needed.

It doesn’t matter the role, Mlodzinski has been one of the best performers. He had a 4.30 ERA in the rotation, which is around league average. That’s about what Jones has put up as his replacement. Jones is more likely to put up better numbers going forward with his dominant strikeout rates. As a reliever, Mlodzinski has a 1.96 ERA in 36.2 innings. The difference is largely that his relief outings were cutting his usage short from when he was most susceptible to damage, which was the third time through the order.

The Pirates have decoupled Mlodzinski from pitching when Jones throws, using him as a multi-inning reliever about every 4-5 days. What’s interesting about this usage is that Mlodzinski’s rotation gives him a different starter each time. His last seven appearances, highlighting the starters in that game: Ashcraft, Skenes, Jones, Keller, Ashcraft, Skenes, Jones. That’s starting to form a pattern.

While this role doesn’t guarantee Mlodzinski will always pitch in leverage situations, it does cut down on innings across the rotation. The Pirates don’t necessarily need 6-7 innings from their starters every time out to ensure a lead gets carried into the 9th inning. They can turn to Mlodzinski for 2-3 innings to continue shutting down the opposing team, while giving each starter a break once or twice a month.

This does raise the issue of what happens when Mlodzinski turns the ball over to the bullpen…

The Bullpen

Gregory Soto
Rank: 78th / 242 RP w/20+ IP
Stats: 4.05 ERA, 9.90 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 40.0 IP

The Pirates signed Soto to a one-year deal this offseason, helping to replace all the relievers they traded away last year. Soto has been a good addition, but he’d play better in a setup role. The Pirates have been forced to use him as a closer, due to the struggles from the rest of the bullpen.

Soto is putting up numbers similar to last season, though he’s not matching his All-Star performances from earlier in his career. He has one of the best strikeout rates of his career. His walk rate has increased from last season. The biggest standout is his batting average against is the lowest of his career.

If the Pirates could add a legitimate closer, Soto could be moved to a better role as a leverage reliever who isn’t stuck to the ninth inning.

Dennis Santana
Rank: 211th / 242
Stats: 5.80 ERA, 8.26 K/9, 4.69 BB/9, 40.1 IP

The Pirates were banking on Santana to be their closer after trading David Bednar last year at the deadline. Santana had a good season in 2025, with a 2.18 ERA in 70 appearances. However, this was a career-best season, and what he’s done this season is more in-line with what he’s done previously in his career.

Santana’s strikeout rate has dropped to his lowest percentage since 2021. His walk rate has gone up, after previously dropping to single-digit percentages the last two years with the Pirates. The Pirates originally got Santana as a waiver claim in 2024, and he quickly became one of their better relievers the last two years. They may have pushed for too much from him by expecting him to be their best reliever this year.

Whatever the Pirates get from Santana down the stretch would be a bonus. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, so it’s also possible they could cut ties with him if he doesn’t bounce back.

Evan Sisk
Rank: 46th / 242
Stats: 2.23 ERA, 10.65 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 36.1 IP

One year ago at the deadline, the Pirates added Sisk for Bailey Falter, which was one of their better moves. Sisk has become their best reliever this season, in the first full MLB season for the 29-year-old reliever. He ranks second among Pirates relievers in strikeout rate, while having one of the lowest walk rates, only beat by Mlodzinski.

Sisk is currently on the injured list with left elbow inflammation, which isn’t good. There’s no word yet on whether he could return this season. The Pirates have already added a potential left-handed relief replacement, which doesn’t speak well to an immediate return.

This might be a good story for the first half. Sisk is a reliever to hopefully look forward to in 2027, but it seems the Pirates might not be counting on much from him the rest of the year.

Mason Montgomery
Rank: 59th / 242
Stats: 4.64 ERA, 13.09 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, 33.0 IP

One of the best trades the Pirates have made in years was sending out Mike Burrows and getting Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Montgomery in return. Lowe is putting up one of the best seasons of his career, Mangum is a contending-level fourth outfielder who has stepped up when injuries hit, and Montgomery is arguably the most electric reliever the Pirates have.

Control has been the biggest issue for Montgomery, but he’s showing improvements this year. His walk rate went from 12.9% last year to 10.8% this year. The strikeout rate has increased from 30.1% to 34.8% during that time. He ranks 10th overall in strikeout percentage out of 242 relievers with 20+ innings. The relievers ahead of him are among the best in the game.

Montgomery might end up being the best reliever the Pirates have by the end of the year. That’s a good thing, as they have four remaining years of control. For this season, he’s one of few reliable arms in the late innings.

Yohan Ramirez
Rank: 130th / 242
Stats: 3.31 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 51.2 IP

Ramirez has provided value for the Pirates by covering a lot of middle inning relief work with good numbers. This is the best season he’s had since 2021, despite the worst control since his rookie season. He’s allowing a .203 average against, which is the lowest total since 2021. That helps to offset the walks, and his strikeout rate is one of the better numbers of his career.

The Pirates need reliable middle relievers to help get the ball to the late innings when Mlodzinski isn’t doing his multi-inning role. Ramirez is one of the better options who has emerged this season for that middle relief help. He’s done all of this while having the second-highest leverage index on the team, one spot behind Soto.

I don’t know how long the Pirates can rely on Ramirez to keep producing these results. That tends to be the case with most middle relievers. He also has a concern that he’s pitched more innings and more games than any previous MLB season. Continued success from him should be seen as a bonus.

Isaac Mattson
Rank: 132nd / 242
Stats: 4.40 ERA, 7.63 K/9, 4.11 BB/9, 30.2 IP

Out of all Pirates relief pitching depth options, Mattson has been one of few who has done well enough to stay in the Majors. His results have taken a drop from last season, when he had a 2.45 ERA in 44 appearances. Part of that is due to a drop in strikeouts, an uptick in walks, and an average that has gone from .198 to .252.

At best, Mattson is an average reliever. He’s not going to be a guy who can be depended on in higher leverage situations, but he’s also not a guy who is going to blow a lot of games. He actually ranks second on the team in holds, one hold behind Montgomery.

The Pirates haven’t seen a depth option emerge as an above-average reliever. The best they have is Mattson, who is doing enough to warrant continued usage in the big leagues.

Brandon Eisert
Rank: 173rd / 242
Stats: 5.25 ERA, 9.75 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, 24.0 IP

Eisert was added to the roster when the Pirates traded the 34th overall pick to the White Sox. The trade patched two second-half depth spots in the big leagues, adding Jacob Gonzalez to replace Konnor Griffin, and adding Eisert with Sisk on the injured list.

The results from Eisert show that he’s more of a depth option than a reliever the Pirates can rely upon to help improve the bullpen. His numbers have declined since his first full MLB season last year. If the Pirates could get him back to that 4.39 ERA, he wouldn’t be a bad middle relief option.

There is hope Eisert could improve to that level. His strikeout and walk rates are similar to last year, and his average against has improved. He’s been hurt the most by the long ball, but PNC Park could help him out. He could end up in the Ramirez/Mattson tier if he can get back on track.

Wilber Dotel
Rank: Unqualified
Stats: 5.89 ERA, 9.33 K/9, 4.42 BB/9, 18.1 IP

Dotel is rehabbing in the minors, and offers the Pirates a potential second long-reliever to pair with Mlodzinski. His numbers are inflated by ten earned runs in 1.2 innings across two appearances right before he went on the injured list. Prior to those outings in early June, he was a nice surprise, allowing two runs in 16.2 innings.

Most of those appearances came in 3-4 inning outings. He didn’t allow a single run in his long-relief work. The Pirates have been rehabbing him in multi-inning spots, currently throwing two innings per appearance. He could have a few more outings in the minors before he’s ready to return.

When Dotel does return, he could become the second long-relief option, which could allow for the Pirates to ease their innings limit concerns in the rotation down the stretch.

Pitching Analysis

The Pirates’ rotation is still a strength. The potential upside would be Skenes returning to one of the very best in the game over his final dozen starts. Chandler also has some breakout potential in the second half. The risk is with the innings totals for guys like Ashcraft and Jones.

Keller is the biggest wild card. If the Pirates can get league-average numbers from him again, they’d get a boost that could push them to one of the best rotations in the game, while easing inning concerns in the bullpen.

If there’s one area where the Pirates need trade deadline help, it’s the bullpen. Despite having one of the worst bullpens in the game, they’re not far from having a positive group. This isn’t a bullpen that needs 2-3 additions. One big reliever could have a trickle-down effect.

Mason Miller is on everyone’s dream list. Adding a shutdown reliever like that would push Soto into leverage situations, unbounded by the ninth inning. Montgomery adds a second high-leverage reliever who the Pirates can start to depend upon.

Mlodzinski and Dotel give the Pirates multi-inning middle relievers who can help save the rotation’s innings down the stretch. Ramirez, Mattson, and possibly Eisert could help the single-inning middle relief situations. Anything from Santana would be a bonus.

I didn’t write about the minor league depth on the offensive side in yesterday’s article. Part of that is because they’ve already tapped into and nearly maxed out that depth, with the second half depth coming from returns off the injured list.

The pitching does have some depth in the minors. Khristian Curtis is the biggest wild card prospect in my view. He’s currently a starter with one of the best strikeout rates in the system, and one of the better fastballs. He could be a sleeper in a short-term relief role.

The Pirates have turned to Hunter Stratton, Thomas Harrington, Antwone Kelly, Brandan Bidois, and Noah Murdock in the first half. Stratton would be the best of this group if he can return to the old form he had with the Pirates.

Jose Urquidy started the season in Pittsburgh and struggled in relief. He has since been one of the better pitchers in Triple-A, with a 2.75 ERA in 52.1 innings over his last ten starts. He could be another option for relief help, especially if the Pirates go heavier on the long inning middle relief roles.

The Pirates might be sitting in a Wild Card spot right now, instead of two games out of the race, had the pitching been better in the first half.

Those first half results showed the need for bullpen help at the deadline, along with the hope of the rotation reaching a higher bar down the stretch.

Prospects will be needed to get the bullpen help for the Pirates.

I’ll be reviewing the prospect depth tomorrow in part three of this series…

-Tim Williams