Crash Davis
The mentality by Henry Davis at the plate has improved his defense behind the plate, but might never lead to good MLB hitting.
I saw a tweet by Josh Yohe recently which perfectly described the hitting approach of Henry Davis.
Yohe is a Pittsburgh Penguins writer, but doesn’t need to cover the game of baseball to see the tendency from Davis. I personally haven’t been watching much baseball over the last year. Live scouting is my strength, which is why I’ve been trying to get a fresh look at the game by focusing on the statistical analysis surrounding the sport.
This means I probably haven’t seen Davis play since 2024.
That said, while I wouldn’t choose the same frustrated words as Yohe’s tweet, it sounds like nothing has changed with Davis’ approach at the plate from what I noticed throughout his minor league career.
The Mentality of a Hitter/Pitcher/Catcher
Hitters need to have a certain mentality to succeed in the Majors.
It’s best described as reactive.
Some hitters do well at being proactive in their reactive state, which is how you get strong selective swings for power. Other hitters get too reactive and have no power to their game, with only defensive swings geared at making contact.
Jared Triolo is an example of a hitter who is too reactive, to the point his swing has no power. This extreme reactive state is the same approach he takes on the field to be an elite defender.
Davis is on the other end of the spectrum, with a swing that is extreme proactive. Just like Triolo, Davis has the same approach on the defensive side of the game, where an aggressive approach works behind the plate.
Pitchers need to have the opposite mentality of hitters. A pitcher needs to be proactive. They control the pace of any at-bat, and they operate with the element of surprise. Pitchers need to throw in a way that aggressively attacks the hitter, forcing discomfort from the reactive state.
When the Pirates drafted Davis first overall in 2021, he was projected to be a power hitter behind the plate who might have questions about his defense. The opposite has come true. His defense is currently his strength, and his offense has struggled.
Defensively, a catcher needs to have the same mentality as a pitcher. The proactive, always aggressive attack approach from Davis is a complement to pitchers behind the plate. If a pitcher gets a bit reactive, and loses his edge, Davis can help keep them on track. He doesn’t seem like a guy who loses that attack mentality easily.
This becomes a problem at the plate.
Proactivity at the Plate
If you’re proactive and attacking aggressively against MLB pitchers, you’re doing those pitchers a favor.
By committing to an aggressive swing, you’re attempting to match power with power. An opposing pitcher only has to scale back their own power to get you out in front. This is why Yohe notices the tendency for Davis to attempt to pull the ball so often.
Looking at the pitch-level stats for MLB batters with more than 100 plate appearances this season, I noticed something interesting.
Davis gets attacked with fastballs at a 55% rate, which places him 26th out of 339 qualified batters. However, the average velocity for most hitters in this range of extreme fastball usage is 94 MPH or above. Davis has a 92.9 MPH average velocity, which is fifth slowest among those 339 hitters.
Among those same hitters, Davis ranks 41st in fast swing rate, and 36th in bat speed. He’s one of the consistently fastest swingers in the league, and opposing pitchers are combating his aggressive attack simply by taking a bit off their fastball and letting him get out in front of the pitch.
Davis has a 7-degree attack direction on the pull side, which is the most extreme pull swing on the Pirates, and the 39th most aggressive pull swing tendency of the previous qualified group. He’s getting out in front consistently.
The problem is that this aggressive approach isn’t easy to change. It’s not a mechanical adjustment. It’s a mindset adjustment.
Davis was able to go his entire career challenging opposing pitchers with an aggressive attack. He did it in college to become a first overall pick, based on scouts mistaking his attack mindset for projectable power potential in the big leagues.
He kept it up in the lower levels of the minors, and was even able to maintain good numbers in the upper levels across small sample sizes. Davis had a .207 average in 136 plate appearances in Double-A in 2022, then put it all together in 187 plate appearances in 2023. That earned him a quick promotion to Indianapolis. His numbers in Triple-A were good, and he didn’t have the issues that would creep up in the big leagues.
That just shows the massive talent gap between Triple-A and the Majors.
A hitter like Davis, who does have legitimate power, can challenge pitchers in Double-A and Triple-A and succeed at a high rate. The talent at the big league level is a different story. There are fewer pitchers who can be shaken off their game, and most pitchers have a higher success rate with controlling their velocity and location.
The pitchers that Davis was crushing in Double-A are guys who hope they might get a cup of coffee in the big leagues one day. The pitchers Davis was crushing in Triple-A are depth options, or at best, back-of-the-rotation starters for a few seasons.
Davis has had success against legitimate big league starters. Who can forget the two home run game against Shohei Ohtani? But those moments tend to be the exception, and not the norm.
The norm tends to be getting out ahead of a pitch with an extremely aggressive uppercut swing that leads to high pull rates and a 15% popup rate.
On the other extreme, Bryan Reynolds sees the highest fastball velocity of all Pirates hitters at an average of 94.7 MPH. He also sees the 20th lowest fastball rate in the game at 39.9%.
Reynolds is a good contact hitter who can get proactive-reactive with a well-timed power swing.
He also is selective on pitches outside of the zone, with the 25th lowest chase rate of all qualified hitters. Opposing pitchers only attack him in the zone 41.5% of the time. Reynolds might not swing on outside pitches, but he’s dangerous inside the zone, with an 89.5% contact rate. His attack direction is more neutral, working the middle of the field for a higher probability outcome of a ball landing in play.
That might be why opposing pitchers dial it up against Reynolds when they need to attack with the fastball. They’re likely trying to overpower him, as working around his selective, high-contact bat is not an option, and a slower pitch could allow Reynolds to turn aggressive and bust out his power.
In a way, Davis was like Reynolds when he was in the minors. He was a hitter that opposing pitchers needed to dial up against in order to attempt to overpower him. That played directly into his game of trying to overpower the power being thrown to him.
MLB pitchers don’t pitch to Davis like they pitch to Reynolds. They attack Davis in the zone 45.5% of the time, which is 10th overall in the above qualified group. He chases around 32.5% of the time, which is around league average. However, his overall contact rate is 78%. He does make contact in the zone at a rate close to Reynolds. But the outcomes aren’t anywhere close to Reynolds.
Major League pitchers aren’t trying to overpower Davis or work around him. They’re attacking him directly, but forcing him to beat them by taking something off his swing.
A Change Could Do You Good?
The problem with changing the mindset for Davis, and this is a problem that also exists with Triolo, is that you risk losing the defensive advantage.
It’s difficult to compartmentalize a mindset for situations that are minutes apart.
Triolo goes from being ultra-reactive on the field to carrying the same ultra-reactive mindset to the plate moments later. If he becomes less reactive at the plate, he might improve with less weak, defensive contact. However, he also might remove the mindset that works so well with his approach on defense.
Davis is on the attack with every pitch behind the plate, helping to keep his pitcher on task with the aggressive approach. Then, he steps to the plate a few moments later and he’s still in attack mode on every pitch.
The difference between the two players is that Triolo has always been good defensively due to his reactive approach on the field. He carries that reactive approach over to the plate, and that approach doesn’t work. Davis generates his aggressive approach from the offensive side, crafted from years of attacking weaker pitchers attempting to overpower him. He’s carried this mentality over to his defense behind the plate, which has improved that side of the ball.
The challenge with any up-the-middle player in baseball is the same.
Catcher. Shortstop. Second Base. Center field.
They’re all expected to switch their mindsets in a moment between what is needed for good defense on the field (an extreme reactive state) and good offense at the plate (a more proactive-reactive approach). Even some of the better players can’t switch between the two on command, and end up carrying the same approach on both sides of the ball.
Brandon Lowe has rare power up the middle, but his defense is traditionally a weakness.
Oneil Cruz has some of the best power in the game, but has shown horrible defense at shortstop and center field.
Both players lack the ability to sit back and react for a long period of time on the field. Their more proactive tendencies play well at the plate, with power good enough to hide traditionally lower averages. They also lead to lapses on the field where they’re not as reactive as they should, causing either player to get caught off guard.
Davis follows a similar trend to Cruz and Lowe, except he’s aggressive to a fault. He also plays the only defensive position on the field where you need to maintain a proactive, aggressive mindset the entire time you’re on the field. That allows his approach to benefit the defensive side.
You could theorize that someone like Cruz benefits from needing to keep his mindset in a more reactive mode in the field. And if that’s the theory, then Lowe’s situation becomes interesting. Lowe is having the best defensive season of his career this year, which is an extreme reversal from the -14 defensive runs saved at second base last season. His best defensive season is also one of his best seasons for power production, and one of his best on-base seasons in years. Perhaps Lowe has found the perfect balance of reactions and aggression on both sides.
Davis has not found the balance. Unless he can compartmentalize his aggression at the plate, any change he makes runs the risk of taking away what is working for him on defense.
A Modern Approach to Scouting Catchers
There’s a reason a two-way catcher is so rare in the big leagues.
It’s a rare ability to go from constant attack to a more reactive state at the plate in a matter of minutes. That has to be the biggest, most extreme mindset flip in the game.
This also might be why Buster Posey went from being one of the rare elite two-way catchers to a President of Baseball Operations. Posey’s ability to instantaneously scale his mind and energy-flow is something that would naturally carry over to an executive position.
Perhaps that’s how catchers should be scouted going forward.
Forget the old dreams of a hard-nosed Crash Davis type who means nothing but old school business behind the plate, while relying on platitudes and catch phrases to represent his knowledge of the game. Catchers need to be future General Managers.
If your catcher can’t run a team one day from behind a desk, how can he run a team from behind the plate?
I haven’t seen a Pirates catcher since Jacob Stallings have that type of mindset potential. It’s no surprise to me that Stallings is now a coach.
Davis, meanwhile, seems like he was scouted with dreams of being more of a Crash Davis.
Ironically enough, that’s what he’s becoming.
A great catcher behind the plate, with the ability to get his pitchers in line and maintain a steady attack against opposing batters.
And power that will only ever lead to records in the minor leagues.
Until the next time I go live…
-Tim Williams