The Pirates Returned to a Draft Approach That Wasn't Working

The early 2026 draft results are reminiscent of a trend that was failing before the success of the last two drafts.

On October 30, 2019, the Pittsburgh Pirates claimed left-handed reliever Sam Howard off waivers.

It was the only addition Kevan Graves made in his brief time as the interim General Manager of the Pirates.

The Pirates had fired their previous GM, Neal Huntington, after some indecision. Originally, they fired manager Clint Hurdle at the end of the 2019 season, with owner Bob Nutting stating that Huntington would remain in the GM role.

Then, Frank Coonelly left as president and went back to work in the Major League Baseball offices. Nutting eventually fired Huntington on October 28, 2019, with the MLB offseason already underway.

Graves was tasked with running the team while Nutting hired an outside search firm to find his next GM.

A few years ago, I talked with Graves about this experience.

He described it as a team effort, with everyone remaining in the front office pulling together to ensure things kept running smoothly. All-hands-on-deck, if you will. It wasn’t your typical, humble description that gave credit to the group. The situation was legitimately chaos.

Free agency officially began on November 4th, a week after Huntington was fired. Graves and the entire remaining decision group had to scramble as 11 players became free agents, with plenty of roster movement going on around the league.

Graves was originally hired by the Pirates in 2008. His role was a rules specialist. When the Pirates needed to make a transaction, whether that was deciding who to call up, or who to add from the outside, they would consult Graves to determine if their move was within the rules. Often, his role was to find loopholes or rarely used rules to give the Pirates an edge.

There would be very few people more qualified to take over like Graves did in 2019. Aside from being a very personable guy who is universally well-liked, he was the perfect guy to manage the chaos during a key transaction period when the Pirates suddenly became leaderless.

Graves did more than administrative oversight. He executed one addition during his time as General Manager. Two days after getting the role, he claimed Howard off waivers.

Howard went on to put up a 3.86 ERA in 21 innings during the shortened 2020 season. He had the fifth-best ERA of all Pirates pitchers with 20+ innings that season. He pitched parts of two more seasons with the Pirates during their rebuild, before getting claimed off waivers by the Tigers in 2022.

That’s not the most impactful long-term move, but it’s the only move Graves made as a General Manager.

Familiar Results From the Search Firm

Less than a month later, the Pirates hired Ben Cherington as their new General Manager.

The selection was made with assistance from a search firm, Korn Ferry. The pick of Cherington probably didn’t need much of a search.

Cherington was the second General Manager hired by Bob Nutting since he took over as the principal owner in 2007. Nutting, a graduate of Williams College in Massachusetts, has only hired from one school: Amherst College, which has been the rival to Nutting’s alma-mater for over two centuries.

You could make a joke about a billionaire only hiring rivals of his college to work under him as a power move, but I’m not sure how much satire would exist in said joke.

The results from Cherington since late 2019 has led to one of the worst stretches of Pirates baseball in franchise history. The lackadaisical approach by Nutting in replacing his old General Manager was only matched by Cherington’s delay in rebuilding a franchise that had been on a downturn the previous four seasons.

Cherington can’t be blamed for not hitting the ground running in his first offseason. He was hired in mid-November, with the offseason already underway. His lone rebuilding move that offseason was trading Starling Marte for Liover Peguero and Brennan Malone. MLB free agent signings didn’t start until January 31st.

Then, the world shut down.

After the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Pirates entered 2021 in an official rebuild, trading the rest of their established players away. They also had the number one overall pick in the 2021 draft.

By that point, there were signs that the Pirates didn’t have a good track record in the draft, primarily with position players. While they had success finding and developing pitchers, they drafted Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman, Will Craig, and Travis Swaggerty as first rounders from 2014-2018.

Cherington kept the same scouting group in place after joining the Pirates. The draft was still overseen by Joe DelliCarri, and the scouting department saw minimal changes.

The results from 2020-2023 in the draft are expected.

Carmen Mlodzinski and Jared Jones in 2020 and Bubba Chandler in 2021 have been the most promising finds so far. All three are pitchers, which is an area where the Pirates had excelled for years. Nick Gonzales, taken seventh overall in 2020, might be starting to realize his potential in 2026. He’s also in his age 27 season, and has an OPS below .800 with no power to add to his .310 average.

The Pirates were the lucky winners of the lottery that allowed them to draft Paul Skenes in 2023. Even that wasn’t a slam dunk pick at the time, with some debate about whether Skenes was truly a generational pitcher. The Pirates didn’t decide until 20 minutes before the pick was announced.

Cherington didn’t make a change to the scouting department until after the 2023 draft. DelliCarri, who oversaw the first four drafts of Cherington’s rebuild, was moved to an advisor role in the organization. Cherington replaced him with Justin Horowitz, who worked with the Red Sox while Cherington was their General Manager.

I’d point out the trend of Cherington following Nutting’s approach of hiring from his own personal network, but Horowitz turned out to be exceptional at his job.

In 2024, Horowitz led a draft where the Pirates selected Konnor Griffin with the ninth overall pick. In 2025, the Pirates took prep pitcher Seth Hernandez, who is already the top pitching prospect in the game a year later. Two years in a row, the Pirates bet on upside, and two years in a row they won by landing a player who immediately surged to becoming the one of the best in their draft class.

The selection of Skenes required a lottery win. The selections of Griffin and Hernandez were more about scouting and organizational risk tolerance.

After the 2025 season, Horowitz was hired away by the Washington National to be their new assistant General Manager.

Once again, Cherington decided there should be no urgency in finding a new scouting director.

Slow to Make Changes Again

The Pirates entered the 2026 draft without a scouting director.

Graves was tasked with overseeing the draft this year, after previously serving in an oversight role to Horowitz the last two years.

The two roles aren’t nearly the same.

Horowitz had spent years working for the Red Sox in their Amateur and International scouting department. While Graves had oversight, Horowitz brought the experience needed to run the department.

When Graves made the claim of Howard in late 2019, he wasn’t doing this unilaterally. He was following the recommendation of the pro scouting department that was in place, which determined Howard was worth a look. Graves didn’t spend years in pro scouting, so it makes sense that he would defer to the group and the director for advice on who to acquire.

That’s not the setup for the 2026 draft.

Cherington decided that the best approach would be leaving the amateur scouting director role open this year. The Pirates had four months after Horowitz was hired away until the amateur seasons would begin for the current draft to hire a replacement.

Instead, they tasked Graves with taking a bigger role to oversee the process, with DelliCarri assisting as an advisor. While Graves does well in navigating complex rules and pulling people together to work as a cohesive unit, he lacks a background in amateur scouting.

That’s not a knock against Graves. It’s simply pointing out that amateur scouting hasn’t been his area of expertise during his long career inside the Pirates’ front office.

Cherington has stated the Pirates will add a new scouting director for the 2027 draft, but it makes little sense that they went without that leadership in a draft where they were picking fifth overall, and originally had the largest bonus pool.

On Saturday, Graves oversaw day one of the Pirates 2026 draft. The lack of amateur scouting experience would have placed a bigger emphasis on DelliCarri’s experience.

It’s not a surprise then that the early results look more like a pre-Horowitz draft than the upside chasing that took place under the former scouting director.

The Early Pirates 2026 Picks

With the fifth overall pick, the Pirates selected LSU outfielder Derek Curiel.

Unlike the upside of the previous two years, this pick stood out for the higher floor that Curiel brings. His hit tool, defense in center field, and his speed drive his value, with limited power potential.

The pick is along the lines of high average, premium position picks of the past like Gonzales, Johnson, or even back to Newman and Tucker.

Curiel was ranked outside of the top ten in all major draft rankings, which means he’s likely to come with some savings that could be used in the middle rounds.

The Pirates don’t seem like they’ll be getting anything close to the upside of Griffin or Hernandez, or the lottery win that Skenes brought. You could make an argument that the future comp for Curiel is Jake Mangum, which isn’t an exciting pick inside the top five.

One of the post-draft stories that has been floating around is the friendship between Curiel and Griffin. That shouldn’t have any impact on Curiel’s value as a player. It does follow a trend of the Pirates’ organization being built on personal networks from the top down.

Nutting hires General Managers from his college network.

Cherington hires people who worked under him in the past.

And the first big story about Curiel is the friendship he has with the team’s future star in Griffin.

Maybe that’s not how it actually goes down, but the Pirates situation often does come off as more of a social club getting together to play a competitive game, versus an attempt to pull together the best people possible to win a competitive game.

Most of this draft was a safe, low-upside approach, versus a gamble on the type of win a small market needs from the draft.

The night before the draft, the Pirates traded the 34th overall pick to the Chicago White Sox, along with upper-level relief prospect Jaden Woods, receiving Jacob Gonzalez and Brandon Eisert.

Gonzalez might be having a breakout year after hitting 19 homers in Triple-A. That could also be an impact of a hitter-friendly park, where most of his home runs were hit. The Pirates added him to help with their middle infield depth after the Griffin injury, which is also a statement about the quality of the team’s depth after seven years of Cherington rebuilding.

Eisert wasn’t the answer the bullpen needs, instead adding a depth option from the left side with Evan Sisk out with an injury. The 28-year-old reliever doesn’t have much upside, but there’s something Cherington liked about him. Possibly related, Eisert was originally drafted in 2019 by the Toronto Blue Jays, when Cherington was a member of their front office.

The Pirates essentially traded the 34th pick in this draft, and the biggest bonus pool of any team, to get two short-term depth options with questions about their long-term value. The trade works out if the breakout from Gonzalez is legit, versus park-factors elevating his power numbers to unprecedented career levels.

With their remaining second round picks, the Pirates maintained the high floor approach, without getting a lot of upside.

Aiden Ruiz, a prep shortstop taken 44th overall, isn’t bad value for his spot. He has some of the best defense in the entire draft, with the chance to stick at shortstop long-term. He doesn’t project to hit for power, and his hit tool will need to be developed. If the hit tool doesn’t work out, he’s a depth option out of Triple-A at best. If it does work out, he’s a fringe-average to average MLB starter at best.

The Pirates had the 51st pick this year as compensation for their failure to sign Angel Cervantes last year. The team had plenty of money remaining in their overage amount to go over-slot with Cervantes. The top pitching prospect decided to go to UCLA when the Pirates didn’t negotiate with him on price, according to Yahoo Sports.

“After my advisor gave me a call that the Pirates didn’t meet in the middle with my number, I was comfortable going to college,” [Cervantes] said. “Going pro was one of my biggest dreams. I had another big dream to play for UCLA. I had a field trip to UCLA in elementary school. and by my sophomore year, I’m committed. It’s pretty awesome thinking about it.”

The decision to pass on Cervantes gave the Pirates the compensation pick to select Chris Rembert out of Auburn. Rembert received a split opinion on his offensive upside. FanGraphs saw him with 40 hit and 45 power, while MLB Pipeline had him at 60 hit and 45 power. As a projected average second baseman, he will need the plus hit tool to drive his value.

The first three hitters did share a trend that the Pirates were going for hitting upside, speed, and defense, with power mostly missing from the mix. This was a hallmark approach of Pirates drafts before Horowitz.

The Pirates wrapped up day one by selecting Jason DeCaro as their first pitcher in the 2026 draft, along with prep outfielder Andruw Giles.

DeCaro is another classic Pirates selection pre-Horowitz. He’s a tall, projectable pitcher who has four pitches that project as average or better, average command, but lacks fastball velocity. If the Pirates can make adjustments to get more out of his velocity, he could be a MLB starter one day, working out of the back of a rotation. Otherwise, the upside is likely a depth option for the bullpen, benefitting from pitch mix and control.

Giles has more power potential than any of the previous hitters taken. He also makes good swing decisions and has good bat control, which could maximize his power development more than the other picks. The prep outfielder has a lot of time to develop and improve his future value.

The Pirates don’t have a great history developing hitters to maximize upside. The best current example is Esmerlyn Valdez, who homered three times across both games of a double-header on Saturday. Valdez was a power hitter with questions about his hit tool coming up through the minors.

Griffin is another obvious example of a young hitter having success. The big questions surrounding him were centered on the hit tool. The Pirates didn’t bank on a guy who had a safer ability to hit with hopes power would come. They invested in power with hopes the hitting would develop.

That’s the key difference with what the Pirates were doing under Horowitz and what they were doing under DelliCarri.

The approach with Horowitz even expanded to the middle rounds. On Saturday night, Murf Gray hit his 23rd homer of the year. Taken 73rd overall last year, Gray was given a 50 power grade and a 45 hit grade, showing once again that the Pirates were drafting power and developing the bat.

Drafting power is the easiest path to upside beyond an average starter.

Drafting speed, defense, and a hit tool is often a path that leaves you stuck with a 35-45 grade player with hopes they could become average at best.

You can’t say anything truly bad about high floor players. Curiel, for example, has a good chance of reaching the Majors and providing more than replacement-level value. He’s just unlikely to provide an impact, and a team like the Pirates should be seeking impact with such a high pick.

Personal Scouting Preferences

I like the FanGraphs Pitch Selection tool on their draft board.

This tracks patience, approach, and ball/strike recognition.

The traditional scouting hit grades can often be influenced by results or bat path/speed. Those can be faulty. Results at the lowest levels of baseball don’t indicate a good future hitter, and live looks at form and technique don’t tell much about the mind of a hitter.

The hit tool is ultimately determined by decision making and pitch recognition. It’s what goes on inside the hitter’s head that leads to the swings the scouts see and the stats that get hyped up as confirmation. If you don’t have these pitch selection abilities, nothing else matters.

The same goes with power. You might have strength, but if you don’t have pitch recognition skills, or patience to go with the power mindset, then you’re unlikely to maximize that power in games.

There were only 18 players in the FanGraphs rankings with a 55+ Pitch Selection grade.

Pirates first rounder Curiel was among that group. He’s also one of two players in that group with a 60+ FV for his hit tool, joining second overall pick Grady Emerson.

Curiel’s raw power graded last of that group, and his game power graded 17th out of 18.

This is why he looks like a safe pick versus an upside pick. He might maintain the ability to hit for average, but the power doesn’t grade well, and the Pitch Selection can only do so much to maximize a 35 FV power grade.

Looking at the group of 55+ Pitch Selection grades, here are the players who also had 55+ Hit and 55+ Game Power:

1. Vahn Lackey (3rd overall pick)

2. Christopher Hacopian (11th overall pick)

That’s it. The combination is rare to project with above-average hit, game power, and pitch selection to maximize the chance to reach both upsides.

There are other considerations with scouting the complete player.

Hacopian, for example, grades as a 40 FV fielder at second base with 30 speed. While he has some upside with above-average hit/power projections, he’s going to need that combo to make up for the lack of defensive value.

Lackey grades as a 55 fielder with 50 speed behind the plate, which is why he was my #1 prospect on the board in my limited research.

Curiel grades as a 55 fielder with 70 speed, so he gets some value beyond power. That increases why he’s more of a safe pick than an upside pick, while also having more upside than most safe picks.

I personally liked Eric Booth Jr. ahead of Curiel. Booth had 50 Hit, 55 Game Power, 60 Raw Power, 80 Speed, 55 Fielding, and 45 Pitch Selection. The Pitch Selection grade is lower than Curiel, as is the Hit tool (Average vs Plus). The power for Booth is above-average to plus, and the speed/fielding is better.

These are two types of projections. Booth is power/speed, while Curiel makes up for his lack of power with a higher potential for average.

I mentioned above that Curiel has a feel that he could be another Mangum.

Booth has more upside, but he’s riskier due to the lower hit floor, especially with the lower Pitch Selection abilities. Good power does have a way of patching up poor hitting more than good hitting can overshadow a lack of power.

Hacopian, meanwhile, seems like he could be a better all-around hitter than either Curiel or Booth, just with less value on the bases and in the field. That could still lead him to the highest offensive upside of the trio, and his plus Pitch Selection abilities would allow for a safer path to this offensive upside.

I’ll note here that I wrote all of this before I realized Hacopian was drafted by Horowitz’s new team. The Pirates reverted to the safety of speed, defensive, and hit tools, while the drafts under Horowitz continued sacrificing safety for power.

This is something I said in my (now-archived) review of the 2024 draft, which was the first under Horowitz. To quote my past self from that internet archive link:

Maybe it’s not a coincidence that Griffin is opposite from most of the hitters the Pirates have taken in the past. From Cole Tucker, to Kevin Newman, to Will Craig, to Travis Swaggerty, and even into the Cherington years of Nick Gonzales and Termarr Johnson, the Pirates have largely trended for an advanced hit tool, with hope to develop power. Looking at that list of names, the selections have not developed as you’d hope from a group of first rounders — though Gonzales and Johnson give hope that things might be changing for the better.

I’ll be honest, I rarely remember what I wrote in the past. I looked up that article because I do remember Griffin had concerns about his hit tool, and I wanted to see what I wrote about him at the time. I was surprised to see almost the exact same overarching sentiment in that article that I expressed in this article.

One thing about speaking truth and facts is you don’t have to remember what you said in the past to keep your views consistent in the future.

The truth and facts about the Pirates draft are they had something working for them the last two years. I didn’t even know the approach from Horowitz was going to work so well when I pointed out the difference in 2024.

After Horowitz brought positive change, and after he was hired away, Cherington opted to leave his position open.

Graves was put in charge, which ultimately meant the amateur scouting leadership was once again coming from DelliCarri assisting Graves.

It’s no surprise that the approach went back to what wasn’t working before Horowitz arrived.

Now, the hope of the 2026 draft hinges on the safe approach actually working this time around. Can the Pirates draft the hit tool and develop power to achieve upside?

Based on years of Pirates draft results with this same approach, you would be justified if you felt underwhelmed by these draft results.

---

The Pirates Prospects Draft Pick Signing Tracker is updated with all of the day one selections. Pirates Prospects will continue live updates for rounds 5-20 tomorrow. Draft analysis can be found here at Pittsburgh Baseball Live.

Until the next Pirates’ pick…

-Tim Williams