What Are the Pirates Getting With Ryan O'Hearn?

The Pirates made a rare free agent signing, adding O'Hearn for two years and $29 million.

I’ll be honest: I know very little about Ryan O’Hearn.

When O’Hearn made his MLB debut in 2018, I was to the point where I didn’t follow anything in baseball outside of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ minor league system. By that point, PiratesProspects.com was running for nearly a decade, and was one of the biggest media sites covering the Pirates. I had no time to focus on anything other than managing my site and maintaining knowledge of the Pirates prospects.

I start with that disclaimer because this is going to be a writing aimed at figuring out the rare free agent the Pirates have agreed to sign.

Last week, the Pirates reportedly agreed to a two-year, $29 million deal with O’Hearn, which represents their largest free agent position player signing in history. It’s also the first multi-year deal they’ve given out since 2016, when they signed Ivan Nova to a three-year deal.

Their long history of inactivity on the free agent market creates a condition where any signing that makes the Pirates look like a real MLB franchise can become overblown. There’s the risk that the perception of O’Hearn could be elevated, simply because he’s one of the rare free agents the Pirates have invested money into over the last decade. I don’t think their lack of free agent moves should elevate O’Hearn by itself. At the least, the signing of O’Hearn should be seen as a hopeful change in business operations at 115 Federal Street.

I have a theory that the Pirates (and other teams at-risk of an MLBPA grievance) are receiving pressure to be active this offseason. Not long after the Pirates agreed to sign O’Hearn, the Miami Marlins signed closer Pete Fairbanks, while the Athletics signed Tyler Soderstrom to a seven-year extension.

The MLBPA has previously filed a grievance against the Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, and Rays for their lack of spending. The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires next offseason, and I would expect a work stoppage. MLB teams are claiming losses from the collapse of the regional sports network structure; the league parity is a joke that sees the Dodgers with an express lane to the World Series; and the economics of the league are a long-term disaster in part due to teams like Los Angeles giving out massive deferred contracts that have further wrecked the financial imbalance. The MLB owners have an easier case for their financial arguments if teams like the Pirates, Marlins, and Athletics are coming off a year where they increased spending, giving the MLBPA no teams to easily target.

But there’s another theory that isn’t really a theory: It’s now or never for Ben Cherington.

The Pirates added Cherington as their General Manager nearly six years ago. O’Hearn represents the first multi-year free agent signing during this time, and that includes the first two seasons of generational pitcher Paul Skenes. At this point, it would be inexcusable for the Pirates to take the same passive approach to free agency that they’ve so far seen under Cherington, even without considering the CBA-negotiation macro impacts.

All of this is to say that the Pirates were going to be under pressure to be active this offseason. At the local level, there’s pressure to do something to show they’re actually going to try to contend in over half a decade of the current rebuild. At the macro level, the league needs teams like the Pirates to spend this offseason in order to strengthen their position in next year’s battle with the MLBPA.

With that said, what exactly are the Pirates getting with Ryan O’Hearn?

A Career Year or Lasting Improvement?

The biggest thing that stands out to me with O’Hearn is that he’s coming off a 3.0 fWAR season, where he hit .281/.366/.437 with 17 homers. He ranked 10th in WAR among qualified first basemen, although his home run total was 20th among the same 25 players. O’Hearn’s value was driven by a high average (7th among the qualified first basemen), and a high on-base percentage (4th). He’s also steady defensively, ranking fourth among that group.

When it comes to first base, you typically think power. That’s not to say that a high average/OBP option can’t work, especially with the power production that O’Hearn has shown. There’s just more margin for error with this profile on a year-to-year basis, versus a strong power profile.

One thing that stands out is O’Hearn’s improved walk rate.

He made his debut with the Royals in 2018, and had a double-digit walk rate during his first three seasons in the Majors. The walks declined in 2021-2023, sitting around 5% and dropping to 4.1% in 2023. He’s gotten back on track the last two seasons, with a 9.3% walk rate in 2024, and an improvement to 10.7% last year.

What stands out to me is that O’Hearn has been making better swing decisions the last two seasons. He was chasing pitches out of the zone nearly a third of the time from 2021-2023, but reduced his chase rate to 27-28% the last two years. The league average has been above 28%, so O’Hearn has gone from an above-average tendency to chase, to a below-average rate. He’s also making above-average contact on pitches out of the zone, which means when he does chase, he’s more likely to put the ball in play.

The swinging strike rate from O’Hearn dropped to 7.4% in 2024 and 9.7% in 2025. These were the only two years of his career where he was whiffing less than 10%, even back to the high walk rate debut years. What’s interesting here is that O’Hearn isn’t achieving this by swinging less. His swing rate is around league average, compared to earlier in his career when his walk rates were likely due to below-average swing rates.

While O’Hearn had high walk rates in the past, they were largely a result of his reluctance to swing the bat. He’s swinging the bat more often later in his career, making better decisions on when to swing, and he’s making better contact. His walk rate is just as high as early in his career, but this is more legitimate, due to the reduced whiffs.

These are all good signs that his on-base abilities will remain going forward.

Batting average can fluctuate with the average on balls in play (BABIP). O’Hearn hit .289 in 2023 with a .340 BABIP. He hit .264 in 2024 with a .282 BABIP. He went back to a .281 average and a .330 BABIP in 2025. His career BABIP is .296, so the expected results should be somewhere in the middle of the last few seasons. That’s not a bad outcome when paired with his on-base abilities and the power he has.

About that power, O’Hearn is a lefty, which means his power results should play up at PNC Park. I don’t know if he would have a significant boost over his time in Baltimore, which features a similar layout that benefits lefties. I will point out that last year’s power results were dampened by a trade to San Diego, where his power took a significant dip after showing improvements in the first half with Baltimore. O’Hearn could have finished with over 20 homers had he remained in a park better suited for lefties.

O’Hearn has a high walk rate and a low strikeout rate, due to good pitch selection and good contact abilities. He’s got 15 home run power at the least, which could play up to 20+ in a full season playing half his games at PNC Park. He’s solid defensively at first base. He’s also durable, playing 140+ games in each of the last two seasons.

After struggling for most of his first five years with the Royals, the last three years have represented a late career surge from O’Hearn. He’s also entering his age 32 season, so there should be some concerns of a production decline with older age. As a first baseman whose offensive value is driven by swing decisions, I’d think O’Hearn would be more immune to age-related decline, at least in this stage of his career.

Will the Pirates get a 3.0 WAR first baseman? Possibly for one of the two seasons. Even if they get a 1.5 WAR in the other season, that still makes O’Hearn a valuable signing for the cost. He ranks tenth overall in fWAR out of 22 qualified first basemen from the last two years with similar results. Out of 31 qualified first basemen over the last three seasons, O’Hearn also ranks 10th in fWAR.

O’Hearn isn’t a flashy, game altering first baseman. He is a very consistently productive first baseman, and consistent productivity is exactly what the Pirates need when they’ve got limited funds to spend.

Are the Pirates Done?

If the Pirates only signed O’Hearn, it wouldn’t be enough of an upgrade. Fortunately, he’s just the latest addition.

This is a team that has already added Brandon Lowe in a trade earlier this month. Combined with O’Hearn, they’ve rebuilt the left side of their infield, with a significant power boost. They had 16 homers combined from Spencer Horwitz and Nick Gonzales last year, across ~800 combined plate appearances. O’Hearn and Lowe combined for 48 homers across nearly 1100 plate appearances.

They’ve also made some smaller moves with upside. Top 100 prospect Jhostynxon Garcia was added in an earlier offseason trade, giving upside to one of the outfield positions. Jake Mangum was added in the Lowe trade, giving some sleeper stability to the same role. The Pirates can use Mangum as a league-average option until Garcia is ready, and by the time Garcia is ready, they should have four strong outfield options.

The Lowe trade also brought in lefty reliever Mason Montgomery, who will pair with free agent lefty Gregory Soto to upgrade the bullpen.

The Pirates have so far upgraded half of their infield, one outfield spot, and the left-handed relief role this offseason.

There have been rumors that the Pirates aren’t finished with their additions.

The Pirates have been linked to Japanese third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, whose posting window closes on January 4th. There have been some Twitter rumors that the Pirates are the front runners for Okamoto, but I don’t put a lot of stock into the sources that have done the reporting.

Another report from Francys Romero had the Pirates looking at free-agent third baseman Yoan Moncada. Between the Okamoto rumors and the interest in Moncada, the Pirates are clearly targeting a third base upgrade, where they have a need.

I think Okamoto would be better than Moncada, due to reduced injury concerns that have plagued Moncada the last few years. In either case, if the Pirates could land a third baseman, it would result in 75% of their infield being upgraded in one offseason.

Combine that with their comments about giving top prospect Konnor Griffin a chance to win the starting shortstop position — which likely translates to Griffin having a more realistic chance at making his debut at some point in 2026 — and it’s clear the Pirates are executing a plan to significantly upgrade their position players behind the top pitching staff led by Skenes.

Finally Active

Maybe the Pirates are getting a push from MLB to be active this offseason, similar to the Marlins and Athletics, ahead of next year’s CBA negotiations.

Maybe Ben Cherington is feeling the pressure that this could be his last chance in Pittsburgh, and a passive and inactive approach won’t work.

What’s clear is that the Pirates aren’t just making a token effort to appear like they’re trying. It’s already significant that they’ve upgraded half of their infield with 48 homers from last year. The Pirates, as a team, had 117 home runs last season, which was dead last in the Majors.

It’s also significant that the Pirates have upgraded the left-handed spot in the bullpen, while building depth in the outfield with a few starting options for the third spot.

All of these moves have improved the team depth, to the point that they’re no longer relying on Nick Gonzales, Spencer Horwitz, Nick Yorke, Jared Triolo, or even Jack Suwinski as regular starters. Those players give the Pirates a group where anyone who breaks out with a surprise performance is icing on the cake, rather than a necessary ingredient in the batter.

If they’re able to add a third baseman, this team would start to look like a playoff contender. They already have one of the top pitching staffs in the game. Upgrading four position player spots, while having two top 100 prospects arriving by mid-season in Griffin and Garcia is exactly the support the pitching needs.

The outcome of their third base pursuits should become more clear in the next week.

As of this writing, it’s clear that the Pirates are not only showing far more urgency than they’ve shown over the last decade, but they’re making upgrades that make the 2026 team interesting before the calendar even turns to the new year.

At the very least, I learned a little bit about Ryan O’Hearn. And I like what I’ve seen.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams