Prospect Watch: Axiel Plaz, Termarr Johnson, Prospect Rankings

Axiel Plaz showed off his power on Tuesday with two line drive home runs in Greensboro. Termarr Johnson's season-ending injury provides an opportunity for perspective.

Axiel Plaz launched two line-drive home runs in Greensboro on Tuesday. It was the second time this season that the 20-year-old catcher had a multi-homer game.

The first homer on Tuesday was an opposite field line-drive. The second homer was a laser line drive to left, reported on the broadcast with an exit velocity of 116 MPH.

Both home runs had the Greensboro effect. The opposite field line drive to right field likely would have gone off the Clemente Wall in Pittsburgh. The 116 MPH, 346 foot line drive to left would have gone for a double in the spacious left field at PNC.

That doesn’t ignore the fact that Plaz has legitimate power, and possibly some of the best in the lower levels.

Statcast data isn’t publicly available in High-A. Plaz only has public metrics from last season in Bradenton. The results were impressive. He had an average 92 MPH exit velocity, and a max of 113.9 MPH.

By comparison, only Murf Gray has hit a ball harder in Bradenton this season (114.3 MPH), and only Brent Iredale has a higher average exit velocity in Low-A (92.2 MPH).

A huge difference is that Gray and Iredale put up that power in their age 22-23 seasons out of college, while Plaz was doing it in his age 19 season. One year later, he has 12 home runs in 333 plate appearances for Greensboro, along with 16 doubles.

Plaz shows some ability behind the plate. His caught-stealing rate in High-A is 37.5%, after a 31.3% in the AFL last offseason. He is a thicker catcher, which raises questions about whether he can remain behind the plate long-term. Even if he can’t, he has the power to justify a first base or DH role.

You can check out both home runs from Tuesday’s game in the Plays of the Day video below.

Termarr Johnson Injured

Over the weekend, Termarr Johnson went down with a bad looking injury.

The 2022 first round pick was lunging for first base, trying to beat out an infield single, when his knee appeared to have twisted hitting the bag. He went down, and was carted off the field after an air cast was applied. The Pirates placed Johnson on the injured list, and this late in the season, that will likely sideline him for the rest of the year.

Johnson was drafted out of high school in 2022, and at the age of 21 was one of the youngest players in Triple-A this season.

The results weren’t good. Prior to the injury, he hit .199/.336/.319 in 406 plate appearances. There were some positive signs. He hit eight home runs and 14 doubles, showing flashes of power. He walked at a 16.7% rate and stole 24 bases, showing an ability to reach base without hits, and a further ability to do damage on the bases.

The downside of being a high profile high school pick is that you get thrown into the spotlight immediately. It can then feel like a player has been around much longer than he actually has.

For perspective, had Johnson gone to college in 2022, he would have been draft eligible in 2025. The 2026 season would have been his first full year. At best, he would have been getting his first taste of Double-A right now.

Instead, he has nearly 1,000 plate appearances above A-ball at this point in his career.

Johnson hasn’t been the hitter he was advertised as being on draft day. He was regarded as one of the best pure hitters of the prep class that year, but his career so far has led to a .239 average. There was some hope after he hit .272 last season in Altoona, but he didn’t follow up on that this year in Triple-A.

All you can say about Johnson at this point is that he hasn’t done well with the aggressive push he’s received. He hasn’t lived up to the scouting reports on draft day, but there are some signs of his pure hitting approach, most notably his walk rate being so high at a high level.

Had he been in A-ball all season, he would have been age-appropriate, and might have put up results that would have generated excitement about what he could do in future years in the upper levels.

Instead, he got challenged early, and didn’t handle that challenge well. This leads to natural concerns that he won’t improve in the upper-levels in the future. The reality is that Johnson has plenty of time to develop in Triple-A. He could spend multiple years at the level and still be age appropriate.

He’s Rule 5 eligible this offseason. I don’t think he would be at risk of being selected or protected all season, which speaks to his current value. I also don’t think his future value is anywhere close to being finalized. Johnson is in that grey area where he has disappointed as a first round pick, but still has plenty of time to turn things around.

Familiar Face Returns

The Pirates signed Aaron Shortridge to fill out their pitching depth in Altoona.

Shortridge was originally drafted by the Pirates in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. His career was derailed by Tommy John and the COVID pandemic, which limited him to 64 innings from 2020-2022. Since then, he’s worked as upper-level depth, gradually shifting from the rotation to a full-time bullpen role.

The right-hander is now 29-years-old, and has pitched 10.1 innings across nine relief appearances in Double-A this season for the Nationals. The Pirates have five pitchers on the injured list in Altoona, and eight more in Greensboro, which means he should get some innings the rest of the season.

Prospect Rankings

The most important part of prospect rankings come with the write-up.

I’m currently on the write-up stage of my first top 30 prospect list in almost two years.

My goal is to release the list this week. I am excited about getting this list released, as it will also come with an update to Pirates Prospects.

Be on the lookout for the top 30 prospect list, and the new look at Pirates Prospects, later this week.

Until the top 30 list is completed…

-Tim Williams