It's Going to Be a Long Winter

MLB and the MLBPA have been exchanging early proposals for the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The latest addition to the new PiratesProspects.com is a Payroll Tracker. This is paired with contract details on all of the player pages.

Payroll tracking was one of the founding features on Pirates Prospects when it began in 2009. Back then, hardly anyone was tracking payroll, especially not to the depths of minor league salaries. It was usually a single update of the opening 25-man payroll, and maybe a footnote at the end of the season with an official 40-man figure. It’s only fitting to bring that feature back to the site with the latest changes.

It’s also fitting that this update comes as MLB and the MLBPA are exchanging proposals for the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement, which expires this offseason.

You could view the early exchanging and negotiating as a positive. I personally view it as early positioning for what will no doubt be a historic and long drawn out battle that could drastically reshape the league’s economics going forward.

The biggest potential change is the addition of a salary cap system, which would only come with a salary floor and revenue sharing to ensure every team could spend to the floor.

Looking at the new payroll tracker, the Pirates would benefit from such a change. Their future payrolls are low, and their roster is built for the future.

The Pirates have potential young star Konnor Griffin locked up through 2034. If a cap/floor system was in place, there would be no concerns about paying him through the most expensive years at the end of that deal. They might even have a chance to keep Paul Skenes, as their low future payroll commitments would allow for a massive amount of spending compared to large market teams who would be instantly maxed out by a cap.

I’m not going to break down the proposals of the MLB/MLBPA today. Truthfully, I have only given them each a passing glance, as I’ve been too busy working on updates to Pirates Prospects.

What I wanted to point out was the inevitable struggle that will take place with these negotiations.

For years, both sides have been negotiating for the top earners, while expecting the people at the bottom to go along with the deal and take whatever they were given.

On the MLBPA side, the focus has been on driving up the highest salaries, versus driving up the league minimum pay. The last CBA agreement in March 2022 made some changes to increase compensation at the bottom, but it was largely insignificant. The league minimum in 2021 was $570,500. Five seasons and one CBA change later, and the minimum has gone up to $780,000. Meanwhile, the top salaries have gone from the $35-40 million per year range to the $60+ million per year range, with more players joining the $40 million range.

On the MLB side, the focus has been maintaining a system where teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers can keep their local media revenues, which are greater than most team payrolls. The Dodgers spend more than every team, while contributing revenue sharing to other teams who can’t even touch their payroll with that added revenue. The Dodgers total payroll is covered by their local deal, before they take a dime from national revenue sources that small market teams rely upon.

Both sides have been geared toward the top earners. The players have been trying to push the highest salaries higher, more than they’ve been trying to raise the floor. The owners have been trying to protect the revenues from the highest earners, more than they’ve been trying to equally distribute those revenues to help the teams at the bottom.

What needs to happen, and what seems to be slowly happening, is a shift in philosophy.

That shift would move the focus toward raising the floor.

For the owners, that involves finding a way where the “small market” teams can spend in the same competitive range as the Dodgers, without going bankrupt. A lot of this involves a massive increase of revenue sharing from teams like the Dodgers to these small market teams. No longer can the Dodgers keep the bulk of their ~$280 million per year local media deal. That money needs to go to a league pool that is more evenly distributed.

For the players, that shift involves finding a way to pay the league minimum players a higher salary, which would be more significant than a $200,000 per year jump over five years like last time around. This would mean fewer players would be receiving $40+ million deals, but every player would be receiving deals over $1 million.

There will be powerful people fighting against such a change.

The Dodgers, for one, will want to maintain their competitive edge and their guaranteed spotlight in the league.

Scott Boras, who tends to represent the best players in the game, will also be against a change that favors the bottom. If the best players are getting their massive contracts effectively capped, this will also result in Boras having his commissions capped.

Major League Baseball, from all sides, has been geared toward negotiating in favor of the teams, players, and agents at the top.

And it has been slowly killing the sport in a majority of markets.

The only way to save the sport would be a shift in focus toward raising the floor. That involves the top teams, the top players, and super agents all agreeing that it’s in the best interest of the sport for the small market teams and the league minimum players to receive the focused benefit this time around.

That’s not going to be easy.

My prediction? It’s going to be a long winter.

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Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams