Best Alternate Fastballs in the Pittsburgh Pirates Minor League System
Which Pirates prospects throw the best sinker, cutter, and splitter in the minor league system this season?
I’ve been recapping the best pitches in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system this year, looking at the available Statcast data.
So far, I’ve tracked the Best Fastball, Best Breaking Pitches, and the Best Changeup.
Today completes the series, taking a look at the best alternate fastballs.
My look at the Best Fastball only focused on the four-seam fastball. This ignored any pitcher who throws a sinker as their primary pitch. And I left out the cutter and splitter from the breaking pitches, as those are more fastballs.
In this article, I’m going to detail the best Sinkers, Cutters, and Splitters.
As usual, the disclaimer applies that Statcast data is only available in the FCL, Low-A, and Triple-A. If a player spent all of his season in Greensboro or Altoona, he won’t be included in this article.
Let’s start with the sinker.
The Sinker
The sinker ball is a fastball that relies upon deception.
Instead of the mostly straight four-seam fastball, the sinker typically has a late cut, arm-side, along with more vertical drop. The late movement and the drop typically induces weaker swings and a higher amount of ground balls.
While the sinker can get points for being a swing-and-miss offering like the four-seam, it’s purpose is more about generating weak contact.
There are some pitchers who can do both.
Standouts in the System
Noah Murdock and Evan Sisk have two of the best sinkers in the entire system.
Murdock gets a 71% ground ball rate, which is third highest among Pirates minor leaguers with at least 50 sinkers. He also gets an above-average 23.3% whiff rate. He’s above-average in chases out of the zone, reduced swings in the zone, and reduced contact all around. He throws the pitch in the zone 56.6% of the time, which is above average. However, batters only swing 50.4% of the time, and when they make contact, it has an 85 MPH exit velocity, which is one of the weaker rates in the system.
Sisk has a similar profile. His sinker gets a ground ball 66.7% of the time, with a 23.1% whiff rate. Batters only swing in the zone 48.6% of the time, despite Sisk throwing the pitch in the zone 52.9%. When they make contact, the average exit velocity is 85.7 MPH. This is a good combination from both pitchers, generating extreme ground ball rates, above-average whiff, some deception in the zone, and consistent weak contact.
Andrew Moore is an interesting upper-level case. The Pirates added him in a minor trade at the deadline. He has the highest velocity in the system on his sinker at 97.4 MPH. His ground ball rate is above-average, and his whiff rate of 30.3% is second in the system. He also gets reduced contact, with the second-lowest contact rate in the zone. Batters do have good exit velocity when they make contact, sitting at 88.8 MPH. Moore’s sinker is a power pitch with swing and miss potential.
Down in the lower levels, Levi Sterling offers an interesting question: Do you need ground balls for the sinker to be a good pitch? Sterling only gets a 45% ground ball rate, which is one of the lowest among sinkerball pitchers in the system. Interestingly enough, he has the highest pop-up rate at 13.8%. He gets an above-average whiff rate, and a an above-average chase rate. His zone contact is also one of the lowest rates in the system, and batters have an 86.6 MPH exit velocity when they do make contact, which is among the better results in the system. Sterling throws the sinker as his primary fastball, and gets swing-and-miss from his secondary, with a lot of movement across the board from all of his pitches.
One of the most interesting sinkers in the system comes from Clevari Tejada. He’s only been pitching for five years, and only has 190 innings across his four-year pro career. Tejada recorded a ridiculous 90.9% ground ball rate with his 118 sinkers this season. He gets lower contact rates both in the zone and out of the zone, while getting an above-average 86.3 MPH exit velocity. The extreme ground ball rate and weak contact makes him stand out in the lower-levels.
Another interesting lower-level sinker is from David Matoma. He has a 66% ground ball rate and a 24.6% whiff rate, along with one of the best velocities on the pitch, averaging 96.9 MPH. Matoma’s issue is he only throws the pitch in the zone 41.1% of the time. He does get a low amount of swings, and low contact, along with an 86.5 MPH exit velocity, which is good.
The best lower-level sinker belongs to Isaias Uribe. The lefty reliever has a smaller sample of 58 pitches between rookie ball and Low-A, but gets a 77.8% ground ball rate, a system-leading 38.7% whiff rate, and the lowest exit velocity at 78.8 MPH. Uribe throws the pitch in the zone 51.7% of the time, and gets low contact rates both in and out of the zone. He’s been limited by injuries the last few seasons, and has been on the IL most of this year. However, he’s pitching well in his return, and was just promoted to High-A.
Spin and Movement
In terms of movement, Moore has the highest qualified spin rate. Uribe has the second-highest spin rate. Sterling has the third-highest, while complementing his sinker with several other high-spin pitches.
Sisk has the second biggest vertical drop on the pitch, while Murdock ranks sixth. Uribe, by comparison, has one of the lowest drop rates, with only Moore having a lower rate.
The sinker starts to break down into two classifications.
Moore and Uribe stand out with the best swing and miss offerings, while lacking the sizeable drop that makes a sinker a sinker. Moore struggles with his control, while Uribe is untested above Low-A, but both are in the conversation for the best sinker, and stand out for a power sinker.
Murdock and Sisk look like they have the best pure sinkers, with a high drop rate and good metrics all around. The fact they’re getting results against Triple-A hitters, with some success in the big leagues, is also significant. Murdock has only thrown 27 sinkers in the Majors this year, but has the fourth-highest ground ball rate on the Major League staff at 66.7%, along with the third-biggest vertical movement.
Complementing the Pitch
The sinker is typically best paired with a slider, as the two pitches work off each other with opposite late breaking action.
Uribe has one of the highest whiff rates for sliders in the minor league system in his limited sample this year, while also having the lowest exit velocity.
Sterling also stands out with a slider that has a 34.2% whiff rate. His slider doesn’t have as extreme of a spin rate as the sinker, but he does get a lot of spin with a cutter, which we’ll get to in a bit.
Matoma has one of the lowest exit velocities on his slider. As a reliever, he doesn’t need much more than a quality sinker/slider combo to have success.
Those three pitchers stand out for having a complement that can improve the deception of the sinker.
The Best in the System
I’d probably give the nod to Sisk, due to his MLB success.
His sinker in the Majors has the biggest vertical movement of all Pirates pitchers, and that’s a healthy sample of 232 pitches. He also has the lowest average exit velocity at 83.9 MPH.
Sisk is no longer a prospect, and is a mainstay in the MLB bullpen at this point, so he doesn’t really fit this article. Ironically, that’s due to the quality of his sinker. He deserves to be highlighted for having a pitch that took him from a prospect to a big league reliever.
The Cutter
The cutter is often a cross between the fastball and slider. A lot of pitchers throw the slider grip like a fastball, leading to a sharper cut action.
The pitch itself can have multiple purposes. It can be a swing-and-miss offering, thrown in the zone for weak contact, or used as a chase offering.
There are only 19 pitchers in the minor league system who have thrown 50+ recorded cutters this season.
Standouts in the System
Irwin Ramirez leads the way with a 42.2% whiff rate. He has the lowest contact rate in the zone, and a good combo of an above-average chase rate and one of the lowest chase contact rates. He throws the pitch in the zone 45.6% of the time. The average exit velocity is among the hardest in the system, making this more of a swing-and-miss offering than a pitch for weak contact.
Levi Sterling gets the highest chase rate with his cutter at 45.3%. The next closest is 37.5%. What’s interesting about Sterling is that he gets one of the lower swing rates in the zone. He gets one of the lowest chase contact rates, and is around average for zone contact. His whiff rate is top five, and his average exit velocity is 86.6 MPH, ranking around average.
Khristian Curtis ranks right behind Sterling in a lot of categories, including the previously mentioned 37.5% chase rate. The results from Curtis are more meaningful, as they come in Triple-A, with some time in the Majors. Curtis ranks just behind Sterling in whiff rate, chase rate, chase contact, and slightly worse in exit velocity. He’s one spot above in zone swings, and a few spots better in zone contact.
The weakest contact goes to Yonleg Gaetano, whose 84.8 MPH average exit velocity is paired with the fourth highest zone contact rate. The Bradenton pitcher also has the second highest zone swing rate. His whiff rate is below-average, but he does get some chase and poor results with chase contact. He’s more of an example of a pitcher who aims for weak contact.
Nick Dombkowski stands out with good results across the board. He has the fifth lowest exit velocity, an above-average whiff rate, the fifth-best chase rate, and the third lowest zone contact rate. His pitch is more a weak contact approach, but he’s got some swing and miss potential in the zone.
The Best in the System
Dombkowski is one of the best pitches for weak contact in the upper levels. Gaetano stands out for the same reason in the lower levels. And Ramirez is an interesting lower level guy for his ability to get swing and miss, though he was throwing the pitch in rookie ball half the season.
Curtis and Sterling stand out with the best cutters, with almost identical results across the board.
I give the nod to Curtis, who is doing it at a higher level.
The Splitter
Not many pitchers throw the split-finger fastball. It’s an advanced pitch that can put strain on the forearm.
There are only 13 pitchers in the entire system with at least one registered splitter, and only nine with 10+ pitches. Most of those nine are in MLB/AAA, with the lone exception being Alessandro Ercolani, who threw ten in his brief time with Bradenton.
At the MLB level, the following pitchers throw a splitter, ranked by usage: Kirby Yates, Carmen Mlodzinski, Paul Skenes, Lake Bachar, and Braxton Ashcraft. Yates and Bachar have the highest whiff rates, Skenes has the lowest exit velocity, and Mlodzinski gets the highest chase rate, with Skenes second and Yates third.
This is a look at prospects, so none of those pitchers quality.
Standouts in the System
Thomas Harrington and Hunter Barco throw the most splitters among prospects. Harrington uses the pitch 11.7% of the time, while the pitch is more situational for Barco at 3.5%.
What’s interesting about both pitchers is they rank with the lowest two spin rates of any splitter thrown. Harrington does get a high ground ball rate with the pitch, along with a high chase rate. Barco has one of the lowest exit velocities, but also the lowest ground ball rate. Neither ranks high in whiffs.
This is a difficult pitch to throw and master, and it’s almost exclusively used by upper-level pitchers. Harrington’s pitch isn’t bad, but isn’t as elite as the MLB relievers who throw the pitch, and his other stuff doesn’t match Skenes or Ashcraft in the starting group. The same goes for Barco.
The Best in the System
By default, Harrington and Barco stand out with the best pitches among prospects, but there’s a gap between their success and the best in the big leagues.
Yates relies on the pitch more than any other Pirates pitcher, throwing it 32% of the time. He also has a top whiff rate and a top chase rate. The latter is good, because he works in the zone a very low amount.
If Yates is the standard for a good splitter, then none of the minor leaguers come close. That just shows how challenging of a pitch the splitter can be to master.
Until MLB adds public Statcast data at the middle levels…
-Tim Williams