The Pirates acquired right-handed pitcher Camilo Doval from the New York Yankees in exchange for catching prospect Omar Alfonzo and outfield prospect Luis Cruz. The Pirates are also receiving cash in the deal.

Doval is a bit of a bounce-back candidate. His best years were 2021-2023, and he’s struggled since joining the Yankees last year at the trade deadline. This year he has a 4.54 ERA in 39.2 innings.

Part of those struggles involve playing at Yankee Stadium. Doval has a 7.08 ERA in 20.1 innings at home, versus a 1.86 ERA on the road. He’s allowed five home runs at home versus one on the road. His road metrics are more in line with his career metrics for home runs.

There’s a good chance Doval improves just by leaving Yankee Stadium. The best hope would be that he pitches like he did with the Giants last year before the trade deadline, when he had a 3.09 ERA in 46.2 innings and a 0.39 HR/9.

Doval is owed around $2 million the rest of the season. With the cash exchange in the deal, the Pirates are only assuming $750,000 of the remaining money, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Doval also has one more year of arbitration remaining beyond this season.

Omar Alfonzo was the main prospect going the other way in the deal. The Double-A catching prospect was hitting .239/.338/.420 with nine homers this year for Altoona. He’s got some pop in his bat, and plays good defense behind the plate. The Pirates are dealing from a bit of a strength here.

While Alfonzo has the tools to potentially make the Majors, he ranks as the fourth-best catching prospect in the system. Easton Carmichael is one of the prospects I grade ahead of Alfonzo, and Carmichael was recently promoted to Altoona, which would have taken playing time from Alfonzo.

That group ahead of Alfonzo doesn’t include Edgleen Perez, who I have right behind Alfonzo. The Pirates got Perez as part of the return from the Yankees last year when trading David Bednar. Bednar is a better reliever than Doval, but the return for Doval is similar in value to the second piece the Pirates acquired for Bednar.

Dominican outfielder Luis Cruz was also traded in the deal. In his second prop season, Cruz hit for a .312/.453/.396 line in the DSL, while stealing seven bases. He showed good plate patience, rarely striking out, and walking at an 18.8% rate. All of this was in a sample of 64 plate appearances, with Cruz missing time due to an injury.

The Pirates got a reliever in Doval who could be a bounce-back candidate simply by changing parks. They also got cash in the deal to make the financial cost low. The prospect return wasn’t high, considering the catching depth the Pirates have around Alfonzo. Cruz was a lottery ticket, years away from any impact he could make.

This deal likely won’t be the final move the Pirates make to upgrade their bullpen. They need more than just Doval. The addition of Doval is a good low-cost move, which has been the theme the Pirates have taken to this point to upgrade their bullpen.

Until the next trade…

-Tim Williams

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The injury didn’t look good at the time, and reports from the clubhouse said he was on crutches after the game.

With their loss last night to the Reds, the Pittsburgh Pirates dropped to 55-56 on the season. The MLB Trade Deadline is in two days.

At this point, I think you have to take an objective look at whether this team is actually a contender.

They have a losing record. That’s still good enough to be 2.5 games back in the Wild Card race. However, there are five teams ahead of them, battling for three spots. There are also three teams behind them within two games. The Pirates do not stand out as top contenders.

Losing O’Hearn would make the team weaker. They do have Spencer Horwitz on rehab assignment, potentially returning soon. That will help soften the blow. The team will also get Oneil Cruz back after the deadline. The offense has been playing short-handed without those two, and if O’Hearn needs to miss extended time, they will continue playing short-handed the rest of the season.

Any hope for a boost from Horwitz and Cruz, helping to push the Pirates closer to true contending status without any outside additions, was likely just wiped out with the O’Hearn injury.

There are also concerns from the rotation.

Paul Skenes continues to struggle. He allowed five runs in four innings on Friday night. I wrote about Skenes recently, noting how he’s been hurt by his defense, while also noting some changes that haven’t seemed to work out this year.

Braxton Ashcraft is now up to 122.1 innings this season. That’s more than he’s ever thrown in a single season, eclipsing the 118 innings he threw last season between Triple-A and the Majors. He has also struggled in his recent starts, and could be showing some fatigue as he entered uncharted waters with his workload.

Mitch Keller has been better his last two starts, but has otherwise had one of his worst seasons of his career. If the Pirates can’t rely on Skenes or Ashcraft to lead the rotation, they would need Keller turning things around just to keep them afloat.

Jared Jones is pitching well, but he’s on an innings limit. Bubba Chandler isn’t quite in Ashcraft territory, but he’s at 104.2 innings and hasn’t pitched more than 131 in a season. He’s also been league average at best as he adjusts to the big leagues in his first full season.

Once the strength of this team, the starting rotation is now filled with question marks. If the Pirates are buyers at the deadline, they might need to add starting pitching depth.

For the longest time, the bullpen looked like the biggest area of need. That’s still an area of need. The Pirates might need offensive depth in addition to rotation depth. They’ve gone from looking like a real contender all summer to a team that has needs all over the roster just to remain a contender.

If the Pirates did buy, they’d have to trade prospects. They have prospects to trade, but you have to wonder if this is the team you want to go all-in with. It might make more sense to add players who can help this year and beyond, versus adding two-month rentals.

On the flip side, the Pirates have some players who could bring back value if they sold. They could definitely get a return for Brandon Lowe, though trading Lowe with O’Hearn out would be waving the white flag on the season. They might also be able to dump the salaries of Gregory Soto and/or Marcell Ozuna. The latter would be a win if the Pirates could simply clear his salary off the books. Keller might even be a cost-saving option to move at the deadline.

Last year the Pirates made similar cost-cutting moves, and it led to spending this past offseason. I’ll note that the spending increase wasn’t significant, and was more a reshuffling, with a slight increase in spending.

The Pirates have been in cost-cutting mode all year, dating back to the offseason. There have been so many moves that make you wonder how tight they’re operating.

• They didn’t hire a scouting director for the 2026 draft.

• They’ve made zero waiver claims this season.

• They traded the 34th pick in the draft, plus $500,000 in international bonus pool space to add Jacob Gonzalez, Brandon Eisert, and Ron Marinaccio. That cut down their amateur spending pool by nearly $3.4 million this year.

• They’ve made moves to urgently dump MLB depth players like Alika Williams ($780,000), Justin Lawrence ($1.225 M), Joey Bart ($2.53 M), and Jose Urquidy ($1.5 M).

All of this raises the question as to whether Pirates’ General Manager Ben Cherington even has the authorization to spend at the deadline, and even if he had that authorization, would it be enough to add pieces to help them contend?

Even with the growing list of needs?

What’s the argument for buying at this point?

The Pirates might be a few games out of a Wild Card spot, but they don’t stand out as strong contenders. They keep falling further behind with injuries and struggles from the pitching staff.

Help is needed in the rotation, with a few relievers, and possibly some position player depth. The Pirates aren’t a contender looking to strengthen their position. They’re a declining team that needs to add to remain on the fringes of contending.

One of the biggest arguments to add might be the other type of need. This is the best Pirates team that has taken the field under Ben Cherington in seven seasons, and waiting for next year to possibly be better gets old. Aside from the fact there might not be baseball next year, I don’t think the Pirates should inflate their own odds simply because this is the closest they’ve been under Cherington.

This raises another concern. Does any of this logic matter? Is Cherington going to add simply because his job at this point might be in danger? Or do the Pirates have the excuse they need to call this a good season ruined by injuries, while giving him another season to finally put together a winning team?

It’s entirely possible that Cherington is doing the job he was hired for in keeping this team on the verge of contending while keeping costs down and providing the narrative that the team actually spent money this season.

If you remove the urgency to finally see the Pirates contending, I think it would be difficult to argue this team currently looks like a contender.

I had them as a 78-win team at the beginning of the year, and a big reason for that was a lack of depth. This has mostly been shown on the pitching side, where they do not have an internal answer for their bullpen.

With a lack of depth, urgency gets placed on adding help from the outside. If the Pirates don’t have money to raise payroll, then the quality of those outside additions might be no better than the Eisert and Marinaccio types, or at best, a Gonzalez type player who is more of a lottery ticket than a sure thing.

I’d love to see the Pirates make a real contending move like adding a Mason Miller type. At this point, it feels like any type of addition they make would just be making a move to say they added. And the team they’d be adding to is looking less like a contender by the day.

Until the trade deadline shows their direction…

-Tim Williams

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There was a time early in my prospect writing days where I enjoyed writing about rookie league players the most.

The concept of finding the next big prospect to follow at the lowest levels means, at best, you’re going to be following that player for years wondering if they’ll make the Majors.

It’s not that I don’t enjoy following along at the progress of the lower level players. I just find myself thinking about the reality of how it will take years before anything is known. These days, I barely have the patience to look forward to the future from Triple-A players.

That said, it’s still entertaining following the lower levels, and I can’t help but naturally notice players who stand out when doing my daily coverage.

The Pirates had some interesting hitting prospects in the Florida Complex League this year. Most of those hitters got a look in Single-A Bradenton, and a few of those hitters stuck around in Bradenton for the rest of the season.

Even the best case scenarios are going to likely spend next season in Bradenton, followed by a season in Greensboro where every home run they hit is placed under the doubt of whether it was assisted by the home park.

The true test for hitters is the jump to Double-A, and most of the 2026 FCL roster won’t reach that level until 2028 at the earliest. That would be following the Esmerlyn Valdez track, which would have the 2026 FCL hitters going to Bradenton for a full season in 2027, followed by splitting 2028 between Greensboro and Altoona.

It will be two years before we get the first real test of any of the FCL hitters from this year’s roster. Until then, the prospecting exercise is identifying tools, and a lot of projection about what those tools could do if they continue working out beyond Double-A, which requires a certain level of projection that those tools will carry the prospect to Double-A.

On the pitching side, it’s a bit different, but not much.

Pitchers come with a different scouting approach than hitters. A pitcher who throws 100 MPH in the FCL is going to throw 100 MPH in Triple-A. The question is how will opposing hitters react? You don’t need to be as accurate with a 100 MPH fastball in the lower levels as you do in the upper levels.

The challenge for hitters as they move up is their reaction abilities are going to be tested against pitchers who are increasingly accurate, with sharper stuff and a wider variety of quality pitches.

The challenge for pitchers as they move up is they end up facing the hitters whose reaction abilities have been proven against sharper pitchers, and who don’t see a 100 MPH fastball or a plus breaking pitch as a rare occurrence.

Pitchers are always going to have the advantage. They’re also going to have an easier projected path up the ladder if they can command elite pitches at a young age. That’s a rare thing in rookie ball, where you see some of the worst control in baseball. When command starts to click for a pitcher this low in the system, they have a much quicker path to the big leagues.

My years of prospect coverage have left me with a unique view of baseball development. My prospect rankings aren’t going to follow the industry consensus. A small part of that is I’m less interested in hopes and dreams surrounding raw tools, and I’m more interested in the players who begin to show the ability to harness their tools in a way that produces real results which can be projected to the upper levels.

You rarely get the latter in the FCL. I don’t think there was any player on the FCL Pirates in 2026 who you can point to and say “That’s a future Major Leaguer.” And that just makes this a normal year.

There was one player who stood out to me ahead of the rest of the roster, due to continuous improvements made throughout the season, along with the quality of his raw tools.

My 2026 FCL Pirates rankings below are mostly reserved for paid subscribers, as a way to say thank you for the support as I’ve been working to build up the new Pirates Prospects while outsourcing articles to this Substack. Future rankings will also be limited to paid subscribers.

Free readers get one player, and in this case, that’s the player I’d bet on to have the best chance of reaching the big leagues.

Top of the Class

Carlos Mateo, RHP
Stats: 4.80 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 36.1% K, 29.2% BB, 0.0 HR/9, .167 BAA, 15.0 IP
Scouting: 48.1% Whiff, FB: 100.1 MPH, SL: 76.9% Whiff, 51.9% Contact

Mateo was one of my favorite lower level pitchers to follow. Every time he pitched, he brought triple-digit velocity that often exceeded 102 MPH. Control has been a big problem, but he’s shown progress this year. After lighting the FCL on fire, Mateo was promoted to Low-A. He’s been in the zone much more often at the higher level (52.8% vs 35.7%), which is a trend that started toward the end of his FCL time. His numbers have improved across the board during this stretch. His walk rate in Bradenton collapsed to 11.1%, his strikeout rate has soared to 47.2%, and he’s still rarely allowing hits (.133 BAA).

Mateo is headed in the right direction by attacking the zone more often. His stuff is so good that opposing hitters can’t touch it. He had the lowest zone-contact rate in the FCL, and only top pitching prospects Seth Hernandez and Reinold Navarro have better rates throughout the system. Mateo’s velocity has even ticked up a bit with Bradenton, while his slider (76.9% whiff rate) and cutter (42.1%) join the fastball (42.4%) to give him three swing and miss offerings. He also throws a sinker, which sits a few MPH below the four-seam.

Mateo could be an elite power reliever who has the ability to move quickly through the system. If he continues finding the zone more consistently, he could move quickly. I think the more he attacks the zone and realizes that opposing hitters can’t touch his stuff, the more confidence he will gain to allow him to fearlessly attack the zone going forward. I might be on an island in rating him the best prospect in the FCL this year, but I’m buying the steady adjustments he made to be in the zone more often with his elite reliever stuff.

Top 30 Prospects

Bralyn Brazoban, OF
Stats: .300/.383/.571, 2 HR, 1 2B, 6 3B, 2 SB, 34.6% K, 11.1% BB, 81 PA
Scouting: 95.4 Avg EV, 110.9 MPH Max, 10.0% Barrel, 14.0% HH, 20.2° LA

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Over the last month, Ramirez has been on fire. He’s batting .354/.396/.780 with nine of his ten home runs on the season. Not only has his power spiked with his overall offense, but he’s getting clutch hits.

This was display on Sunday. Ramirez homered in the third inning, giving the Bradenton Marauders a 2-1 lead. He came to the plate in the bottom of the seventh and hit his 20th double of the season, tying the score at 3-3. In the bottom of the ninth, he added another home run, this one a two-run shot to tie the score.

During his hot streak at the plate, Ramirez has been part of several walk-off winners, either delivering the winning hit, or scoring the winning run. He’s not only hitting, but he’s hitting in big moments.

The underlying metrics show the power is legit. Out of 77 qualified prospects in the system, Ramirez ranks 12th for his 89.4 MPH average exit velocity. His max of 110.8 MPH also ranks 12th. He ranks top 10 in hard hit rate and top 20 in finding the barrel.

It’s not just the offense that stands out. Ramirez is a catcher, and while catching data in the minors is limited, he stands out as one of the better defenders in the system.

His caught stealing rate is 44.4%, nailing 20 of 45 runners. That’s second in the entire organization only to Henry Davis. Ramirez also has two pickoffs. He has allowed four passed balls, which is one of the higher rates in the system. There are also signs that his defensive value expands beyond the plus arm.

In that same game on Sunday when he came up big at the plate three times, he also had a key challenge behind the plate. Ramirez successfully overturned a ball for a third strike, locking down the third out. A few minutes later, he went to the plate and tied the score again with his double.

Ramirez provides defensive value and power behind the plate. He’s only 21 years old, which is encouraging that his his offense is starting to step forward at this age, while he simultaneously has command over the running game.

The Pirates have a few interesting catching prospects. Ramirez stands out to me as the best catching prospect in the system.

Sammy Stafura’s Power

Slammin’ Sammy Stafura.

If I was a classic sports writer, that’s what I’d call him.

But I’m not going to do that.

I’m just going to point out that Stafura has 14 home runs in the last month, after hitting two more on Sunday. He had four by the final week of June. He previously only had a high of eight in a single season. Something has clicked in the power department for the 21-year-old shortstop.

The Pirates added Stafura last year at the deadline in the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade. Most of that trade was a salary dump, with Stafura looking like a lottery ticket. He was batting .261/.392/.410 with four homers in 403 plate appearances in Low-A at the time of the deal.

Nothing really stood out about Stafura until the final week of June this year. That’s when the latest power surge started.

These aren’t Greensboro-assisted home runs. Stafura has hit several shots over the 400 foot mark, and a few beyond 450 feet. The power displayed has been legitimate.

I have covered the Pirates minor league system for as many years as Stafura has home runs. I can’t remember any prospect going on a run like this. I don’t know how long this will last, but there is some legitimacy to the power display Stafura has put up.

Plays of the Day

You can check out the second homers from Stafura and Ramirez in Sunday’s Pirates Prospects Plays of the Day. Bookmark Pirates Prospects for your one-stop source for all Pirates minor league information.

Trade Returns

The Pirates made two minor trades in the last few days, picking up some new prospects for the system.

Felix Doroteo was acquired in a trade for Jose Urquidy, with the Pirates sending the designated for assignment right-hander to the White Sox. This was the second trade between the two teams this month.

Doroteo was signed by the White Sox in January 2025 as part of their international class that year. He was a low bonus signing, and didn’t make his debut until this season in the Arizona Complex League, skipping the DSL.

The 6’ 6”, 195 pound right-hander has only pitched 18 innings, but showed some potential in those frames. He had a 4.50 ERA with a 29.6% strikeout rate and a .210 average against. He only had 24 recorded fastballs, but averaged 95.8, touching as high as 98.6 MPH. He also throws an 84 MPH slider that shows promise as a strikeout pitch.

Doroteo is likely to go to Bradenton next year in his age 22 season. He’s on the older side, but doesn’t have a lot of experience, and does have a live arm. That’s not a bad lottery ticket for someone the Pirates were bound to lose through waivers.

The Pirates also made a trade with the Orioles, adding right fielder Johnathan Rodriguez for cash. This move came before Esmerlyn Valdez was removed from Sunday’s game after getting hit on the wrist with a pitch.

Rodriguez has experience in the Majors, with a .589 OPS in 132 plate appearances across three seasons. Technically, he’s not a prospect any longer, as his time with Baltimore this year removed his eligibility. He was batting .270/.370/.391 in the minors with four home runs and a standout 14.2% walk rate.

In the last month, the Pirates have signed Joshua Palacios, while acquiring Robert Hassell III in another trade for cash. Rodriguez is the third Triple-A depth option the Pirates have added, which might indicate their plans heading into the deadline. Any plans to trade an outfielder could hinge on the health of Valdez.

Until the next time Sammy Stafura homers…

-Tim Williams

White was the Pirates Prospects Player of the Week after going 8-for-19 with three homers this past week. Two of those home runs came in the same game on Tuesday. The third was hit the next night, in a game when White picked up four hits.

On the season, White has 19 homers between Greensboro and Altoona, with 12 at the Double-A level. He also has 18 stolen bases, putting him within range of a 20-20 season. This is already a career-best in home runs for White, who was plagued by injuries during his first few seasons in pro ball. He has a chance to pass his 23 stolen base high set last season.

Fellow Altoona teammate Connor Oliver was the Pirates Prospects Pitcher of the Week. Oliver threw six shutout innings in his best start since moving up to Altoona at the start of June. He struck out six, which is a high for him at the Double-A level. This was also the first outing in the last five starts where he didn’t add a run.

Oliver put up a 2.27 ERA in 43.2 innings with Greensboro to start the season, while showing his best strikeout rate of his career. He has seen a drop in strikeouts since moving up to Altoona, but he’s also seen a drop in walks as he adjusts to the higher talent level.

Individual Level Standouts

Here were the top performers last week outside of Altoona.

Indianapolis Pitcher: Noah Davis

Stats: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Davis has anchored the Indianapolis rotation as a veteran arm to eat innings. This week he allowed one run in six innings during one of his best outings of the season. He’s got a 4.31 ERA in 94 innings, with his innings total leading Indianapolis pitchers. With the trade of Jose Urquidy, the Pirates will need Davis to continue providing this veteran presence.

Indianapolis Batter: Mitch Jebb

Stats: 5-for-9, 2 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI

Jebb returned from the injured list this week and homered in his first two games back with Indianapolis. He also picked up five hits, continuing where he left off earlier in the season. He only has eight games at the level due to his injury, but is batting .424 with a 1.305 OPS and four home runs. His career-high for home runs is six in a single season, and he didn’t hit one at all in 2025. The small sample of power this year is a different version of Jebb than the previous results.

Greensboro Pitcher: Seth Hernandez

Stats: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR

Hernandez only threw three innings this week, then was placed on the injured list with an oblique injury. The innings looked good, and were reportedly part of the plan to limit his innings, unrelated to the injury. He’s been limited to 2-4 inning appearances across his last four starts, as the Pirates manage his innings totals. He’s also cut down on walks during this time, which was one rare issue with his game in High-A.

Greensboro Batter: Sammy Stafura

Stats: 5-for-20, 3 R, 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 SB, 2 BB

I can’t remember a player putting up the power results Stafura has shown over the last month. After two more home runs on Sunday, he has 17 on the season with Greensboro, and 18 overall. He only had four home runs across both A-ball levels a month ago. Since then, he’s hit 14 home runs. This isn’t just the product of playing in Greensboro. He’s hit several that are 400 feet or longer, with a few 450 foot blasts. This week was the second time this month he had a multi-homer game on the road. Something has clicked for the shortstop in the power department.

Bradenton Pitcher: Levi Sterling

Stats: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 0 HR

Sterling doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he does have six pitches, 93-94 MPH velocity, and an ability to miss bats with his slider, curveball, and cutter. He struck out seven this week, allowing one run. He has 28 strikeouts this month in 19.1 innings, and 56 strikeouts across 48.1 innings over his last ten games. If he ever adds more power to his arsenal, he could be one of the best pitching prospects in the system.

Bradenton Batter: Richard Ramirez

Stats: 7-for-20, 5 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB

Ramirez hit two home runs on Sunday to close out the week, including a game-tying two run shot in the ninth inning. Earlier in the game he hit a game tying RBI double. That came after successfully challenging a pitch for a third strike with two outs in the previous half inning. His power has exploded over the last month, and his defense behind the plate is among the best in the system. In my view, he’s the best catching prospect the Pirates have.

FCL Pirates Pitcher: Tony Gonzalez

Stats: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HR

Gonzalez was a rare pitcher who got a promotion from the DSL mid-season. He has poor control, but showed good strikeout rates, with a 32.7% rate in the DSL and a 28.6% rate in the FCL. He’s a lefty with a good slider and low velocity, which makes him a filler at the lower levels who can pick up strikeouts in relief, as he did this week.

FCL Pirates Batter: Carl Calixte

Stats: 3-for-12, 4 R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 SB, 2 BB

Calixte had a strong finish to the DSL season. The 19-year-old from Haiti hit four home runs, including two in his final ten games. He showed some good raw power, with a 108.3 MPH max exit velocity and an 87 MPH average. He also had a 14.6% walk rate, leading to a .397 OBP in 151 PA. The power and his overall contact rates increased during his second pro season.

DSL Pirates Pitcher: Yhosneiber Torres

Stats: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HR

Torres has taken a step forward in his second DSL season. His ERA has gone from 6.53 to 3.16. That’s due to his batting average against dropping from .314 to .172. He’s seen a higher walk rate this year, but that hasn’t offset the drop in hits. He pitched 2.2 shutout innings this week, continuing his work as a starter, while showing the same lack of hits and control problems he’s had all season.

DSL Pirates Batter: Frankeli Mesta

Stats: 4-for-9, 5 R, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB, 5 BB

Mesta had one of the more interesting stat lines this week. The DSL Pirates Gold won a high scoring game 21-17 on Friday. Not only did Mesta homer in that game, but he also picked up the save. This was the second homer of the season for the third-year DSL player. He also increased his OBP to .448 in 68 plate appearances.

One More Report

Antonio Pimentel had a big week for Bradenton, capped with a walk off home run on Sunday to sweep a double header.

The Pirates took an aggressive approach with Pimentel. After signing in 2023, he spent three seasons in the DSL. His numbers improved last year, batting .385/.492/.606 with more walks than strikeouts. They skipped him over the FCL and sent him to Low-A for his age 20 season.

Pimentel has handled the move well. He’s shown an increase in power this season, with six home runs, after only hitting two total in his previous three seasons. He also has a career high 23 stolen bases, showing run value.

What I like is the plate patience. He’s still recording double-digit walks at the full-season level, with below-average chase rates and above-average contact. Pimentel is a selective hitter, but when he sees a good pitch, he’s aggressive.

Pimentel isn’t one of the top prospects in the system, but he is an interesting lower level sleeper who has a few tools, and who has come up with some big hits this year.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams

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Rohan Lettow, a junior from San Diego State, and Damarcus Rideout-Carter, a prep pitcher from Canada, were the final players added before Monday’s deadline.

Rideout-Carter, drafted in the 14th round, received an over-slot bonus of $211,300. The first $150,000 doesn’t count toward the bonus pool, but the overage took all but $2,500 of the Pirates’ remaining pool money.

The young right-hander can hit 95 MPH with his fastball, while throwing a slider that could grade above-average, and a changeup that sits mid-80s. Rideout-Carter pitched in the MLB Draft League this year, throwing 4.2 innings with eight earned runs. He walked nine and struck out six. His arm has potential, but is clearly on the raw tools side.

Lettow was taken in the 12th round, and doesn’t have a long track record of success as a pitcher. He transferred to San Diego State in 2026, and made a lot of positive adjustments last fall that carried into the season. His fastball now sits 93, and he throws four other pitches. He generated a 37% whiff rate and good chase rates during his junior year.

In his previous two seasons with Arizona State, Lettow only pitched 10.1 innings combined. He threw 78.1 innings for San Diego State in 2026, with a 3.79 ERA, 92 strikeouts, and 27 walks. This followed a 1.72 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 16.2 innings in the New England Collegiate Baseball League last summer. Despite being a college junior, Lettow has an arm that hasn’t experienced a lot of use. The Pirates are buying in right after an overhaul to his game, and after a small sample of breakout success.

With both signings the Pirates land arms that are early on the development curve. Both pitchers have shown some upside, with a good pitch mix, and very little usage.

Unsigned Picks

The Pirates had three unsigned picks from their 2026 draft class.

Malachi Washington and Andrew Duncan aren’t a surprise. Washington, a prep outfielder drafted in the 18th round, announced immediately after the draft that he was planning to attend LSU. Duncan, a college junior drafted in the 19th round, announced after the draft he will transfer to Tennessee to be their starting center fielder in 2027.

The Pirates never had a real shot with either player, especially with the bulk of their over-slot money going to top ten round picks.

Grant Govel, a pitcher drafted in the 16th round, also went unsigned. Govel was a draft eligible sophomore, which means he can return to USC for his junior season and be eligible for up to two more drafts. He was considered the 216th best prospect in the draft by MLB Pipeline, and is another pitcher who had a breakout before the Pirates selected him.

The Pirates spent their bonus pool, but they didn’t go into the overage. Each team can spend up to 5% over their bonus pool amount, with a 75% tax on each dollar spent above the pool. The Pirates have only significantly gone into this range in two of Ben Cherington’s seven drafts: 2021 and 2024. In both cases, they went into the overage due to their top ten round selections.

Tomorrow, I’ll be recapping the entire 2026 Pirates draft class, now that the group is final.

Until the recap…

-Tim Williams

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In his first nine starts of the season, Skenes had a 1.98 ERA, a 2.51 FIP, and a 10.08 K/9.

In the 13 starts since that point, his ERA is 4.84, his FIP is 2.87, and his strikeout rate is 11.84 K/9.

Skenes has the fifth best FIP and the third best K/9 among qualified MLB pitchers during this stretch. His ERA ranks 59th out of those 69 pitchers.

From a results standpoint, Skenes looks like he’s getting hurt by his defense. He’s striking out more batters during his rough stretch, compared to the first nine starts. His FIP is among the best in the league. And the Pirates legitimately have a bad defense behind him.

Diving in deeper with Statcast data, I wouldn’t put it all on the defense.

Stat: First 9 / Last 13 / 2025 Season

• Exit Velocity: 85.7 / 89.5 / 87.6

• Launch Angle: 14.1 / 16.8 / 12.2

• Barrel%: 4.2% / 7.0% / 5.8%

• HardHit%: 29.4% / 43.5% / 40.1%

There are some underlying differences with Skenes that begin to show up in the Statcast data.

He’s getting hit harder. Not as much compared to his 2025 Cy Young results, but still harder. His first nine starts this year were actually better than last season. His last 13 are worse than last season.

The biggest area of concern is a steady increase in his launch angle. Starting in his rookie season, batters are getting the ball off the ground at an increasing rate. He had a 51.3% ground ball rate in 2024, 44.3% in 2025, and 40.8% this year. He’s at 37% during his slump, as the launch angle keeps increasing.

Skenes is working outside of the zone more this year (46.4% vs 50.8% in 2025), but he’s also getting a higher rate of chase swings (33.7% vs 30.4%). He’s giving up more contact, especially out of the zone (61.2% vs 55.7%). What’s interesting is his high contact on chase swings was when he was at his best early in the season. His contact rate on chase swings is at 57.1% during his slump, which is close to last year’s results.

The biggest thing that stands out is that Skenes is attacking hitters over the plate less often this year.

There are some differences with the pitches and delivery.

Despite having better overall strikeout rates than last year, his whiff rate has dropped on almost every pitch he throws.

His arm angle has gone from 23 degrees during his first two seasons to 26 degrees this year.

His sweeper/splitter usage has gone from a combined 38% his rookie season to 30% last year to 26% this year. His offspeed run value has gone from 96-100th percentile the previous two years to 12th percentile this year. Those trends might be related, but the fact that all of his offspeed pitches are seeing fewer whiffs is probably a bigger factor.

So what’s happening with Skenes?

I’m not counting out the defense as a big factor, but it’s not only the defense.

Skenes is pitching in a different way this year.

His arm angle is different.

His attack approach in the zone is different.

He’s getting less swing and miss on every single pitch, but more strikeouts.

His fastball velocity is down about 2 MPH on average.

I stress the word “different” because I don’t want to label any individual change as bad. I don’t know if the arm angle is the root of the problem. I don’t know if the in-zone attack is a conscious effort to work around hitters. I don’t know if that’s related to the fact that he’s getting less swing and miss on every pitch. I don’t know if his arm angle has led to that across-the-board drop in pitch quality, especially offspeed.

The fact is Skenes looks like a different pitcher this year, even if you only look at the numbers.

He’s no longer challenging opposing hitters as often in the zone. Instead, he’s working around them more often. His arm angle is different. Each of his pitches has declined in effectiveness, with a complete 180 in his offspeed value. Opposing hitters are increasingly getting the ball off the ground, where hits become more probable.

Even if you put a better defense behind him, I think Skenes would have a drop in his results this year.

What’s the root of the change? Is it a completely new approach under a new pitching coach? If so, how long will that take before Skenes returns to the pitcher he was, and will that happen at all?

If there was a concentrated effort to change, was it made for long-term health reasons? The arm angle being different suggests a deliberate mechanical adjustment. I don’t think it’s a coincidence this happened at the same time a new pitching coach took over.

Different isn’t necessarily bad.

It’s also clearly not better in this case.

The question is whether Skenes can get back to being one of the best pitchers in the game.

Not just in terms of results independent of his fielders.

He’s still one of the best in the game, which is shown by those FIP and strikeout results.

In a way, he’s almost looking like a smarter pitcher this year, versus previous years.

Then again, he almost has to be smarter, considering his stuff isn’t as good this year.

Imagine if he gets the stuff back to where it was.

Until the next Paul Skenes start…

-Tim Williams

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With a bonus of $6.2 million, the LSU outfielder ended up a little over $2 million under slot. Curiel was expected to be under-slot after he was drafted with the fifth overall pick, and that was all but confirmed when the Pirates went over-slot for their next four picks.

Curiel was ranked in the 10-15 range by all of the draft outlets, standing out as a potential plus hitter with above-average defense in center field, and above-average to elite speed, depending on the source.

The power doesn’t project as more than below-average, which could cap him at 12-15 home runs per season in a good year. His ability to stick in center field and his plus hitting tool drive his value as a safe play, even if he might not have the power to be an above-average starter in the future.

Bonus Pool Updates

With Curiel now signed, the Pirates have $68,800 remaining in their bonus pool. They can spend up to $880,465 before losing any future picks, though they’d face a 75% tax on the overage for any dollar spent above the pool.

In six drafts under General Manager Ben Cherington, the Pirates have gone into the 5% overage tax three times. Once was a minor tax of $1,875. The other two times were in 2021 and 2024. The 2021 draft is significant, as that draft also saw the Pirates going under-slot in the first round to go over-slot in the middle rounds.

The Pirates currently have five picks remaining unsigned, all after the tenth round.

Two picks have already said they aren’t signing. Malachi Washington, a prep outfielder taken in the 18th round, said after the draft that he’s going to LSU. Andrew Duncan, a college junior taken in the 19th round, has stated his intentions to transfer to Tennessee and be their starting center fielder.

The remaining picks are San Diego State pitcher Rohan Lettow (12th round), USC pitcher Grant Govel (16th round), and Canadian prep pitcher Damarcus Rideout-Carter (14th round). The Pirates can spend up to $150,000 on any of these picks before tapping into their bonus pool.

Lettow seems most likely to sign. He doesn’t have a lot of experience on the mound as a college pitcher, but took a step forward this past year. Govel has a bit more leverage as a draft-eligible sophomore, after missing time in 2024 with Tommy John. He might be the best remaining prospect if Washington and Duncan are out.

Rideout-Carter is an interesting situation. He doesn’t have a college commitment, which is usually what drives up high school bonus values. He’s also very raw, showing some control issues in a brief appearance in the MLB Draft League this year.

The draft signing deadline is Monday at 5 PM Eastern time. The Pirates have a little over a day to wrap up their 2026 draft class with any remaining signings.

Until the deadline decisions are made…

-Tim Williams

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Rafael Flores Jr. was placed on the 7-day injured list with a concussion, retroactive July 23rd. As a result, the Pirates called up Shawn Ross to take his place.

Ross is an interesting prospect. The downside is that he can’t hit, with a career .188 average in the minors, and a 38.5% strikeout rate. The upside is that when he does make contact, it comes with some of the best raw power in the organization.

The defense stands out the most. Ross has a 38.7% caught stealing rate, which ranks third in the entire organization this year. That’s not a one-year sample. He has a career 31.9% caught stealing rate in the minors. Ross also hasn’t allowed a passed ball in 32 games this year between Indianapolis and Altoona.

The move to bring up Ross is a temporary replacement with Flores out. In related catching injury news, Endy Rodriguez started a rehab assignment with Indianapolis on Friday. Flores was replacing Rodriguez, so it’s possible that Ross is only filling in until Rodriguez returns.

Other Catching Promotions

The Pirates made two other catching moves in the minors.

The first one might be a move to replace Ross in Triple-A. Derek Berg was promoted from Altoona to Indianapolis. This is the second time Berg has been promoted to Indianapolis this season. The first lasted five games as an injury replacement, similar to the current situation.

There’s reason to think Berg might have a longer-term assignment. Easton Carmichael was promoted from Greensboro to Altoona, which is almost certainly a true promotion. Carmichael was the third round pick in last year’s draft, and was hitting .305/.350/.518 with 16 home runs for Greensboro.

I always write the disclaimer that Greensboro stats come from a hitter friendly park, but Carmichael had similar, if not better results on the road. He also wasn’t bad behind the plate, with a 28.7% caught stealing rate, and two pickoffs this season. Carmichael went 2-for-4 in his Double-A debut on Friday night.

Prospect Returns

In non-catching news, Mitch Jebb and Tony Blanco Jr. were both activated off the minor league injured lists on Friday.

Jebb was activated by Indianapolis, after being out since late-April. He’s only played seven games in Triple-A, due to the missed time, but has a .429 average with a 1.288 OPS and three home runs. One of those homers came in his return on Friday night, in a 3-for-4 game.

Blanco returned to Greensboro, after being out for about a month. The 20-year-old outfielder stands out for his power, and he wasted no time in adding his 13th homer of the season in his return on Friday night.

You can check out the home runs from Jebb and Blanco, plus highlights from Murf Gray, Seth Hernandez, and others, in the Pirates Prospects Minor League Plays of the Day:

Until the Pirates wrap up their draft signings…

-Tim Williams

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No, not that one.

The Pirates added Ron Marinaccio from the Padres in exchange for $500,000 in international bonus money. Marinaccio had recently been designated for assignment, after pitching all season for the Padres.

The five-year MLB veteran had a 4.79 ERA in 47 innings this year. He’s had better results in the past for the Padres and Yankees, with a career 3.50 ERA. The biggest change this year is that his strikeout rate is down, dipping below 20% for the first time, after being around 30% when he entered the league. The Pirates are clearly hoping for a change of scenery benefit.

With the trade of international bonus pool space, the Pirates lower their total pool from $8,034,900 to $7,534,900. The original pool was among the highest in the game this year. No money was exchanged during this trade. The move only means the Pirates lose the ability to spend that $500,000, while the Padres add that total to their bonus pool space. After this move, the Pirates have about $2.1 million to spend, not counting unreported bonuses.

Dennis Santana was designated for assignment to make room for Marinaccio on the 40-man roster. Santana was originally acquired in a waiver claim from the Yankees two years ago, and had a big enough season last year that the Pirates made him their closer. He has struggled this year with a 6.05 ERA in 41.2 innings, and was due to hit free agency at the end of the year.

Adding an upgrade to the bullpen will still be a priority at the trade deadline, with this move adding to the middle relief depth.

Pirates Sign Four Draft Picks

The Pirates were also busy on the draft front, announcing the signing of four of their bigger picks. Second rounder Aiden Ruiz, third rounder Jason DeCaro, and fourth rounder Andruw Giles all received over-slot bonuses. They also signed 11th rounder Spencer Evans, with no bonus announced as of this writing.

Ruiz was considered one of the best defenders in the draft. The prep shortstop was considered a top 40 overall talent, with the chance for an average hit tool, plus speed, and elite fielding up the middle. He doesn’t profile for a lot of power, making him a speedy, elite defender who has the hit tool to potentially be a starter.

The Pirates went over-slot by more than a million on Ruiz, giving him a $3.5 million bonus against a $2.2 million slot price. This move guarantees that first rounder Derek Curiel will be receiving an under-slot bonus, with the savings going to Ruiz, fellow-second rounder Chris Rembert, and others.

One of the other picks who received above-slot money was Jason DeCaro. The Pirates gave the third round pitcher $1.3 million, which was about $265,000 over his slot price. That money is around the same amount they saved on their 5th-10th round picks.

DeCaro was the first pitcher the Pirates took in this draft. He’s got the ability to throw four average or better pitches, with the chance for above-average or better secondary from the slider and changeup. The 6’ 5”, 225 pounder has hit 95-97 MPH with the fastball, and had a changeup that was considered by FanGraphs as one of the best in the draft.

One of the youngest pitchers in the college ranks of this draft, DeCaro had a 2.87 ERA in 19 starts for UNC this past season. He has average control and command, and generates weak contact.

The Pirates also went over-slot on fourth rounder Andruw Giles, a prep outfielder who had a commitment to Oregon. Giles, a left-handed hitting outfielder, has a better offensive profile than the first three bats taken by the Pirates, but he also will need the extra offense with a left field projection putting more emphasis on his bat.

Giles is seen as an average or better hitter with average speed and fringe-average power. He projects as a hit-over-power player who can hit to all fields, while having above-average pitch selection and bat control grades.

The final selection announced was 11th round prep pitcher Spencer Evans. The left-hander had a commitment to LSU, and was already hitting 95-96 MPH with his fastball. He has a projected average slider and changeup to go with the above-average fastball, but needs work on his below-average control.

Evans will be more of a project, working on cutting down on walks and getting the most out of his pitch mix. You can read more about his profile from his draft-day writeup as the leading pick after the 10th round.

Bonus Pool Updates

The only top ten round pick remaining unsigned is first rounder Derek Curiel.

The Pirates have $6,411,300 remaining in their bonus pool, and that’s without the bonus information announced for Evans. That will almost certainly be an over-slot deal, but the amount probably won’t significantly alter the remaining pool.

Curiel’s slot is $8,336,500, so he will likely come in well under-slot. The Pirates can currently pay $7,222,965 without losing a future pick, and that’s also without Evans factoring into the mix.

If Curiel signs for about $2 million under-slot, the Pirates could have enough in their overage money to try and lure another post-10th rounder away from the college ranks. Anything close to that $7 million range means their draft signings are likely finished once the first rounder is locked down.

I noted many times on draft day that Ruiz, Giles, and Evans could be over-slot picks from the savings generated by the Curiel selection. The Pirates took Curiel fifth overall after the consensus top four was off the board, and with no picks remaining that stood out at fifth overall. There were picks who ranked higher than Curiel, but it seemed the Pirates got the player they liked while also getting slot savings.

With all of the top ten round picks signed, and with Evans also added, I wouldn’t be surprised if Curiel signs this weekend to wrap things up.

The Draft Pick Signing Tracker has been updated with all of the new signings.

Minor Moves

In addition to all of the above moves, the Pirates also signed CD Pelham to a minor league deal.

Pelham, a 31-year-old left-handed reliever, was released by the Athletics last week. The Pirates signed him and sent him to Indianapolis. He was previously pitching in the Triple-A bullpen for the Athletics, with a 2.21 ERA in 20.1 innings. He’s only made the majors once, throwing 7.2 innings in 2018. He’s only pitched 40.2 career innings in Triple-A, and prior to this year hadn’t pitched at the level since 2022.

The Pirates are adding to their Triple-A relief depth with this move, after losing a few players and having a consistent churn of relievers called up to help at the Major League level.

Until the next batch of signings…

-Tim Williams

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On Wednesday, the team announced the signing of one of those players, 51st overall pick Chris Rembert. The over-slot signing bonus backed up the idea that the Pirates considered him one of the best in the draft.

According to Jim Callis, Rembert signed for $2.4 million, which was nearly half a million more than the slot price for his pick.

So what did the Pirates like so much about Rembert?

The biggest standout was his hit tool. The highest grades had him as a plus hitter with fringe-average power potential. He drew comps to former big league second baseman Howie Kendrick. Rembert also has average to above-average speed, along with average fielding grades at second base.

MLB Pipeline said that Rembert has some of the best bat speed in college baseball, along with an advanced approach. He had a strikeout rate below 15% in both years at college, while hitting from day one. His .343/.399/.459 line in 233 at-bats with Auburn this year saw a power drop over his freshman numbers. He was also dealing with an ankle injury during the spring that could have had an impact on his game.

Rembert was a draft eligible sophomore, which gave him extra leverage. He was ranked 47th overall by Pipeline, 55th by Baseball America, 67th by ESPN, and was the 8th best college hitter outside of the top 75 overall players in the FanGraphs rankings.

The Pirates recently saved money in rounds 5-10, but that amount was only around $267,000. That doesn’t cover the over-slot bonus they gave Rembert. They could still go under-slot with their remaining picks in rounds 1-4 to make up for the difference. They also have an extra $700,000 to spend on top of their bonus pool, before they’d lose a draft pick as a penalty.

With this latest signing, the Pirates now have reached a deal with 11 of their 21 players. The Draft Pick Signing Tracker is updated at Pirates Prospects with all of the moves to date.

Until the next draft signing…

-Tim Williams

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The recently signed players are below, with quick notes on each player.

13th Round: Griffin Steig, RHP

Stieg sat 93-95 MPH, touching 97 with a two-seam fastball. He also throws a low-80s slider and a low-80s changeup. He’s got three pitches that could grade out as average, along with above-average control. He missed the 2025 season with Tommy John, and went back to Virginia Tech after being drafted in the 18th round by Seattle. He’s now ready to start his pro career.

15th Round: Liam O’Leary, RHP

O’Leary spent two seasons pitching in the JuCo ranks before transferring to St. John’s for his junior year. In 108.2 innings, he had a 3.64 ERA, 78 strikeouts, and 32 walks. He showed swing and miss ability and had success in JuCo ball. The drawback is lacking innings against a higher level of competition. He’s done well in the limited experience he’s received.

17th Round: Nathan Helman, RHP

Helman pitched the last two years at Kennesaw State, and was drafted as a redshirt junior. The 6’ 4”, 200 pound right-hander spent most of that time in the bullpen, combining for a 6.62 ERA in 51.2 innings, with 63 strikeouts and 29 walks. He had better results last year in the California Collegiate League, where he had a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings, with a 21:6 K/BB. At every level, he’s missed bats, but control has been an issue.

20th Round: Dakota Stone, LHP

Stone, a college senior, has pitched all over Florida in his four-year career. This past year, he moved to North Florida, where he had the best results of his career. Stone worked as a starter, with a 2.85 ERA in 79 innings. He struck out 102 and walked 39. Stone got his fastball up to 96 MPH pitching in the MLB Draft League last summer. He’s shown control issues, but also the ability to get swing and miss, with an interesting arm that could fill innings in the lower levels.

Bonus Pool Update

The Draft Pick Signing Tracker is updated with all of the latest moves.

The Pirates have now completed most of their easier signings. They’ve locked down all of their picks in rounds 5-10, while saving around $267,000 in pool space.

I don’t see an issue with signing any of their top five picks from the first four rounds. I also don’t think the Pirates will go over their bonus pool into the 0-5% zone that would draw a tax.

After the 10th round, they have six players remaining. Two of those players have announced they plan to go to school. Malachi Washington, a prep outfielder taken in the 18th round, has announced he will go to LSU. Andrew Duncan, a Wright State junior, has announced he will be transferring to Tennessee to be their center fielder.

Beyond those two players, 11th round prep pitcher Spencer Evans could be signed with the extra bonus money. I could see 14th round prep pitcher Damarcus Rideout-Carter being an easier sign, as he doesn’t have a commitment to any school.

Rohan Lettow and Grant Govel are two of the better pitchers taken by the Pirates after the tenth round. Lettow is a good development story, recently finding success with San Diego State in the last year, with a five pitch mix. Govel is a sophomore who has touched 94-95 MPH, and has some leverage with the ability to return to the draft next year.

It’s always possible that the Pirates could change the minds of Washington and/or Duncan before the August 1st signing deadline. Washington would be the best get of the entire group.

Undrafted Free Agent Signing

The Pirates also announced the signing of undrafted free agent Kyle Calzadiaz, a right-handed pitcher from San Jose State.

Calzadiaz had a 6.15 ERA in 45.1 innings his year, striking out 56 and walking 36. He went to the MLB Draft League over the summer and threw seven shutout innings, striking out 11 batters.

The Pirates assigned Calzadiaz and all four draft signings to the FCL.

Until the Pirates sign more picks…

-Tim Williams

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That was still enough time for Sammy Stafura to do some damage.

The Pirates Prospects Hitter of the Week launched three home runs over the weekend, continuing his recent power surge. Stafura now has 11 home runs in his last 13 games, with 15 on the season for Greensboro. All three of his shots this weekend went beyond 400 feet, including a 451 foot blast on Sunday.

Stafura is also hitting, going 6-for-14 on the weekend, and batting .366 over the last month. The Pirates added the 2023 second rounder from the Reds last year for Ke’Bryan Hayes. One year later, Stafura looks like he’s breaking out in a big way, with some serious power that is beginning to translate to games.

Antwone Kelly was the Pitcher of the Week. He pitched in relief for the Pirates last Sunday, then was sent down to Indianapolis after the break to remain as a depth option. Kelly threw four shutout innings on Sunday, striking out two batters.

The Pirates have called on Kelly twice since the start of June, both times for long-relief help. Between Kelly, Khristian Curtis (who threw five shutout innings in the Majors last week), and Wilber Dotel, the Pirates could have a rotation of long relief options out of Triple-A. Expect Kelly to get another look in the Majors if he keeps pitching like this.

Individual Level Standouts

Most of the levels only played three games this past week, which led to a few relief pitching standouts who rarely get featured in this article.

Indianapolis Batter: Enmanuel Valdez

Stats: 1-for-6, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB

Valdez had one hit over the weekend, but it was a big one. He blasted a grand slam to cap off a blowout victory for Indianapolis. It was the 13th homer of the year for the veteran minor leaguer, and his fifth in his last ten games.

Altoona Pitcher: Brandon Neeck

Stats: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 0 HR

Neeck threw 2.1 shutout innings on Sunday, striking out five batters. He’s been on a roll lately as a multi-inning reliever. His last ten games have produced a 2.08 ERA in 17.1 innings, with a 26:10 K/BB. The Pirates added the lefty in the minor league Rule 5 draft this past offseason.

Altoona Batter: Derek Berg

Stats: 6-for-15, 5 R, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Berg homered twice over the weekend. The catcher went 4-for-5 with two doubles and a home run on Saturday, then followed that with another blast on Sunday. He now has a career-best nine home runs on the season, with eight of those coming in Double-A.

Greensboro Pitcher: Treyson Peters

Stats: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HR

Peters threw 2.2 shutout innings in relief over the weekend. The Pirates added the 6’ 7” right-hander as an undrafted free agent last year. His fastball only sits 91 MPH, and he shows some promise with a slider. He’s been hurt by home runs while pitching in Greensboro. The big frame from Peters could allow for some added velocity on his fastball in the future.

Bradenton Pitcher: Michael Walsh

Stats: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HR

Walsh was promoted to Indianapolis in June, then went on the injured list. He rehabbed this past week in the FCL with a shutout inning, then went to Bradenton to throw 1.2 shutout frames with three strikeouts. The 2022 ninth rounder should help fill out the upper level bullpens when is fully healthy.

Bradenton Batter: Brent Iredale

Stats: 2-for-8, 2 2B, RBI, 4 BB

Iredale is older for A-ball at age 23, but has some of the best raw power at the level. The 2025 seventh rounder hit two doubles over the weekend, while walking four times. He has a .374 OBP this season, due to a 16.6% walk rate. He’s batting .303 with a .984 OPS in his last ten games.

FCL Pirates Pitcher: McLane Moody

Stats: 3.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 HR

The Pirates went over-slot on Moody in the 15th round last year. He’s been very raw this year, but the 6’ 7” 19-year-old shows some potential. His fastball sits 93 MPH and his changeup has a 58.8% whiff rate. In two relief appearances this week he combined for 3.2 shutout frames. Control has been his biggest problem this year, with a 38.3% walk rate, including two walks this week.

FCL Pirates Batter: Carlos Tejera

Stats: 6-for-14, 3 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB, 2 BB

The Pirates like Tejera, who signed as an international free agent earlier this season, and already received a rare in-season promotion to the FCL. He homered twice this past week, while picking up hits in all four games. The big standout from his first seven games in the FCL is a .397 OBP from a 19.2% walk rate.

DSL Pirates Pitcher: Justino Francisco

Stats: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0 HR

The Pirates signed Francisco last year, but he only threw 3.2 innings. He went four innings this week, striking out three. What stands out is he has yet to allow an earned run. He’s thrown 17.1 shutout innings across nine games in his career, with a .175 average against and an 11:8 K/BB.

DSL Pirates Batter: Limanol Payero

Stats: 2-for-6, 2 R, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 5 BB

Payero had his best week of the season, hitting his first two doubles and walking five times. He’s an on-base machine, with a .362 rate this season from an 18.6 walk rate. He hits .182, so most of his game has been getting on base via walks, with a bit of pop when he connects.

One More Report

Richard Ramirez has stood out to me lately, on both sides of the ball.

His hitting has been great lately, with four home runs, a .385 average and a 1.237 OPS over his last ten games. He’s been a clutch performer, with several big plays late in the game. This past weekend saw him pick up three hits, including his ninth homer of the year.

Defensively, he grades well behind the plate. He’s got a 41.5% caught stealing rate this season, along with two pickoffs. The only catcher in the organization with a higher caught stealing rate is Henry Davis.

The 21-year-old Ramirez was signed by the Pirates in 2022, and he’s gradually increased his hitting and power production since then. This year has seen a boost to his power numbers, which may be assisted by a 2.4 degree increase in his launch angle. He’s also hitting the ball harder then before, with more frequent hard hits.

I’ve been doing a lot of prospect ranking work lately, and Ramirez is a player who stands out as a sleeper for the top ten in the Pirates’ system. A catcher with power and good defense is rare, and Ramirez has the skills to become one of those rare catchers.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams

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The full recap, including system leaders and Statcast standouts, can be found on the scores page at Pirates Prospects. You can check out the top plays throughout the organization in the Pirates Prospects Plays of the Day below.

I had some thoughts on the results, and decided to dust off an old feature.

Khristian Curtis Debut

I’ve been highlighting for awhile that Khristian Curtis could be a sleeper option for the MLB bullpen this season. On Saturday night, he took that a step further.

The Pirates went with a bullpen game in game two of their double header with Cleveland. Mason Montgomery got the start, throwing a scoreless first inning. Curtis, who was called up before the game, took over in the second for his MLB debut.

Curtis pitched five shutout innings, striking out four batters. He had eight whiffs on the night, with three from the slider, two from the fastball, and three from the slider.

His fastball averaged 95.3 MPH, touching 97.3. The slider sat around 85.4 MPH. The cutter was thrown 22 times, and averaged 92 MPH. He threw a changeup in the 85.2 MPH range, and threw three curveballs in the 76-78 MPH range.

Curtis has some of the best stuff in the system. He’s dealt with control problems in the minors, but he limited Cleveland to two walks on the night. It was a great debut for the right-hander, who has certainly earned another look this season if the Pirates need relief help again, or even a spot start.

Sammy Stafura’s Power Surge

Sammy Stafura has ten home runs in the last three weeks.

The shortstop, who was acquired for Ke’Bryan Hayes at last year’s trade deadline, has been heating up this month. He homered four games in a row to start the month. A week later, he homered four games in a row once again.

A bit of a disclaimer about those home runs: They all came in Greensboro, which is a power-friendly park. Some of the home runs were no-doubters, but the power surge happening at home does raise some cause for discernment.

Stafura not only continued hitting homers on the road on Saturday night, but he continued hitting no doubters. Both of his home runs traveled beyond 400 foot signs near the deepest parts of the park.

His previous high was eight home runs in 2024 between rookie and A-ball. Stafura hit six last year between two levels of A-ball. He’s never seen power like this, and this surge is something to take seriously. The 21-year-old looks like he’s in the midst of a breakout in the power department.

Buying Early on Jacob Gonzalez?

When the Pirates sent the 34th overall pick for Jacob Gonzalez and Brandon Eisert, they managed to patch up two long-term holes. Eisert replaced Evan Sisk in the bullpen, while Gonzalez could fill in for the long-term injury to Konnor Griffin.

In the case of Gonzalez, the Pirates might have been buying early on a recent power surge. The infielder had 19 home runs in Triple-A with the White Sox before the trade. This was a huge breakout, more than doubling his previous season high totals of eight home runs.

Like the case with Stafura, a hitter-friendly home park raised some questions. Gonzalez played in Charlotte, which is one of the more offensive friendly parks in the International League. The fact that he suddenly became a power hitter who put up a 1.097 OPS at that level, after maxing out in the .650 OPS range in previous seasons, does lead to skepticism.

On Saturday night, Gonzalez launched a long 428 foot home run for his first shot with the Pirates. He also hit two homers in 97 plate appearances in his brief time with the White Sox.

If the power from Gonzalez is legit, he could be more than a short-term fill-in. Drafted in the first round in 2023, this could be the start of a breakout that sees Gonzalez finally putting things together.

Did the Pirates buy early on this breakout? Last night’s home run was a vote in the positive.

Other Home Runs

Aside from the two home runs from Stafura, below is a recap of the other minor league home run hitters last night:

• Jhonny Severino hit his 23rd homer of the year. This was his fourth homer in the last six games, and sixth homer in his last 11. Severino was acquired at the deadline in 2023 for his power potential at a young age. He’s shown power in the past, but he’s taking it up a notch this year.

• Edward Florentino hit his 14th home run for Greensboro. After a slow start at the level, Florentino has been heating up lately. Last night’s home run was his seventh in his last nine games, accounting for half of his homers at the level. He’s showing why he’s considered one of the top prospects in the game.

• I like the speed from Antonio Pimentel in Bradenton. He has 23 stolen bases on the season, after 18 last year in the DSL. He also launched a home run on Saturday, his fourth of the season. What’s impressive about Pimentel is he’s handled skipping over the FCL this season while showing good plate patience, speed, and some power.

• Shawn Ross and Nick Cimillo both crushed some baseballs for Indianapolis. Cimillo’s shot went 437 feet, while Ross sent one 408 feet. Ross had the highest exit velocity on the night at 109.5 MPH, while Cimillo’s shot was 106.9 MPH. Both hitters have some of the best power in the system, even if they both struggle to hit for average.

• Derek Berg hit his seventh homer of the year for Altoona. He also had four hits on the day. Berg is a good defensive catcher and has a bit of power. He also hit one homer in Triple-A this year, so last night’s home run gives him a new career-high eight homers on the season.

• Termarr Johnson wasn’t in the home run department, but he also had four hits on Saturday night. Johnson’s numbers in Triple-A have not been good, but he’s also only 22-years-old, which is young for the level. The only knock against him is that he’s not handling the aggressive promotion well, which is only to say that he’s not a top prospect in the system, but still has time and shows flashes of being a legitimate prospect with time to develop.

Pirates Transactions

To make room for Curtis on the 40-man roster, the Pirates transferred Oneil Cruz from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL.

There was some talk about Cruz returning after the All-Star Break. I’m not sure this alters the timeline much. The new designation means Cruz can’t return until after the first week of August. He would likely need a rehab appearance before he returns. At worst, this pushes his return back a few days, and allows a full rehab assignment.

Hunter Barco was activated from the 7-day IL for Indianapolis. The lefty had been out since June 20th.

Isaias Uribe was sent on a rehab assignment to the FCL. Uribe, who was an international free agent in 2019, has been out since June 18th last season. He also missed the entire 2024 season with an injury. Uribe was pitching in the Bradenton bullpen before the last stretch on the IL.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams

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Those moves included the signing of six picks from the 2026 MLB Draft, two significant prospect promotions, and other roster shuffling that included a few key rehab assignments.

Check out all of the details below, and follow all of the daily moves on the Pirates Prospects Transaction tracker.

Pirates Sign Six Picks

The Pirates announced their first draft signings from the 2026 class, reaching deals with their 5th through 10th round picks.

Bonus information isn’t available as of this writing. However, the Pirates will have a good idea of where they stand with the day one picks in rounds 1-4.

Today’s signings are all pitchers, with the exception of ninth rounder Tre Phelps, who is a third baseman from Georgia. Links to the player pages of each signing can be found below.

Ryan Marohn

Tyler Fay

Bryson Moore

Alex Overbay

Tre Phelps

Michael Gibson

All six players were assigned to the FCL Pirates.

The Draft Pick Signing Tracker is updated with the moves, and will be updated when the bonuses are available.

You can read about all of these players in my recap from rounds 5-10 from day two of the MLB draft.

New Additions to the System

The Pirates made a few minor league additions this week, with two moves boosting their upper level outfield depth.

The first addition was Robert Hassell III, who had recently been outrighted off the 40-man roster by the Washington Nationals. The Pirates traded cash to the National to get Hassell, who doesn’t require a 40-man spot.

Drafted in the first round of the 2020 draft, one pick after Nick Gonzales, Hassell received 206 plate appearances in the big leagues last year. He hit .223/.257/.315 with three homers and four stolen bases. This year he was hitting .215/.304/.289 with two homers in Triple-A across 258 plate appearances.

I don’t view Hassell as depth for the Pirates this year. Instead, he looks like a 24-year-old reclamation project, who could possibly benefit from a change in scenery. It was only a year ago that he hit .310/.383/.456 with 10 homers and 16 steals in 330 plate appearances in Triple-A.

The Pirates also brought back right fielder Dominic Fletcher, who they had released earlier this month after he opted out of his original deal. Fletcher does look like a potential depth option, after being one of the better hitters for Indianapolis this season. He’s spent parts of the previous three seasons in the big leagues.

In 162 plate appearances, Fletcher has a .288/.379/.511 line with eight homers. He’s got some of the best plate patience on the team, with a 13.6% strikeout rate and an 11.1% walk rate. He also grades well from a fielding standpoint with seven outfield assists on the season.

The final addition was the signing of Braydon Risley, a left-handed pitcher taken in the 19th round by the Giants last season. Risley signed for $100,000 last year, and was pitching in Low-A this season as a starter. He had a 4.80 ERA in 60 innings, with a 24.8% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate.

Risley was named the Cal League Pitcher of the Month in May, putting up a 1.48 ERA in 24.1 innings. He struggled in June, and last pitched on July 3rd. It doesn’t seem like he would have been released for performance reasons this early.

The Pirates assigned Risley to the FCL.

Moving On Up

There were two big promotions to kick off the post-break action.

Duce Gourson was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis. The middle infielder was hitting .227/.375/.357 for Altoona, with seven home runs and 29 stolen bases. He’s one of the best in the system at getting on base and stealing bases. His career OBP is .371 and he has 64 steals in 196 games.

Murf Gray was promoted to Double-A Altoona, which was a highly anticipated move. Gray was hitting .328/.405/.608 between both levels of A-ball, with a system-leading 23 home runs in 363 plate appearances. He hit 15 home runs for Greensboro, showing power both in the hitter-friendly home park and on the road.

Gray made his debut for Altoona on Friday night, and hit his first homer at the new level, extending his season total to 24. You can watch the home run in the nightly Pirates Prospects Plays of the Day video below.

Prospects On the Move

Other prospects who were on the move on Friday…

• The Pirates optioned Antwone Kelly to Triple-A. Kelly was called up to the big leagues to provide bullpen depth last weekend.

• Landon Tomkins was sent from Indianapolis to Altoona, likely to make room for the new additions at the Triple-A level.

• Carlos Caro was sent from Indianapolis to Greensboro. He previously moved up to Triple-A to provide some emergency position player depth.

Prospects On the Mend

Three prospects had their rehab work

• Mitch Jebb had his rehab moved from the FCL to Bradenton. The 2023 second rounder was hitting .375/.423/.708 in 26 plate appearances across six games with Indianapolis before his injury on April 27th.

• Tony Blanco Jr. was sent to rehab in the FCL. Blanco has a .237/.319/.500 line with 12 homers for Greensboro this season. He was placed on the injured list on June 21st.

• Michael Walsh was sent to rehab in Bradenton. The right-handed pitcher made two appearances with Indianapolis, after ten appearances with Altoona, before going down on June 27th. This was his second trip to the IL this season.

Until the next time the Pirates make a ridiculous amount of moves in a single day…

-Tim Williams

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What I have is a rough draft of what the talent tiers would look like for the top 30 prospects.

The MLB trade deadline is approaching, and the Pirates need bullpen help. To get that help, they’d likely have to trade prospects.

You might wonder, which prospects would have value, and who could they trade?

Today, I’m giving you the only ranking of the Pirates prospects that matters.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2026 Top Prospects

1. Seth Hernandez, RHP

That’s the list.

Those are all the prospects you need to know for the 2026 trade deadline.

Seth Hernandez.

Drafted in the first round in 2025.

Ranked as the best pitching prospect in the game.

He’s the only prospect in the Pirates’ system who should be untouchable.

Anyone else should be fair game for a trade.

You might add Esmerlyn Valdez to this list, as he’s still prospect-eligible. He will lose eligibility by the time the trade deadline rolls around, and either way, the start to his MLB career makes him too valuable to the Pirates to trade.

Valdez might be the rare case of the Pirates developing their own power hitter. That’s one of the most expensive types of players to acquire, and the Pirates need to hold on to players like him who are literally in the Majors, starting to display their power.

On that same note, Hernandez is looking like a future top of the rotation pitcher. That’s another highly valued position. The biggest contracts in the game tend to go to the best pitchers. For a team like the Pirates, the only current avenue to get a player like Hernandez is to develop him.

Mason Miller would represent the dream acquisition by the Pirates. A lights out closer with three years of control remaining. If the cost was Hernandez, the Pirates would be better off going for a lesser reliever and keeping their top prospect.

Mason Miller Trade Value

There’s an argument that Hernandez might be the cost for Miller.

The Athletics traded Miller to the Padres last year, and the return included Leo De Vries, one of the top prospects in the game, currently ranked second overall, after being just outside of the top ten to enter the season.

Two differences exist with that trade.

First, the Athletics were also trading JP Sears, who might have the trade value of a Carmen Mlodzinski type pitcher. The Padres weren’t just acquiring Miller. They also got a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Even more important, the other three players sent by the Padres for the Miller package were far from top prospects. The return landed the top prospect from the Padres system, but it was a top-heavy return that didn’t get a lot of additional upside.

It’s possible that Hernandez wouldn’t need to be included for Miller alone, as long as the Pirates could replace him with a package that was just as valuable. The top prospect would be less valuable, but the other prospects would result in a better overall package.

Of course, if a team like the Yankees wanted to trade their top prospect for Miller, the Pirates wouldn’t have an attractive offer without Hernandez. The Yankees traditionally don’t need to exclusively build through the farm system, which means they could easily out-bid the Pirates in prospect capital.

The big disclaimer is that the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement could finally put the Pirates on the same competitive spending level as the Yankees.

That’s still not a reason to trade Hernandez, with the future economics of the league up in the air.

What Pirates Prospects Have Value?

Maybe the Pirates could get Miller for a package that doesn’t include Hernandez (or Valdez).

Maybe they turn to a different reliever who gives them an upgrade, without having the star impact of Miller.

They’re going to need to trade some prospects.

I don’t have a full ranking, but I have put some thought into early tiers.

Murf Gray, Edward Florentino, and Reinold Navarro are the top three who stand out to me.

These are guys who could contend for the top 100 overall prospects. If the Pirates were building a larger prospect package, versus trading Hernandez or Valdez as the main piece, they would absolutely need to trade one of these three.

I’m actually lower on Florentino than most. I like his upside, but I think he’s getting a lot of benefit of the doubt in his projections and current value as a top 100, or even a top 50 prospect. He’s still largely graded on raw tools, and not results.

On that same note, I’m probably higher on Navarro than others, and that involves me giving the benefit of the doubt that his control issues will improve with more experience. The difference between him and Florentino is that he’s getting results, despite the obvious flaw to his game.

Gray is moving up to Altoona after the break, and will get a big test on whether his numbers were a result of the age difference against A-ball pitchers. There’s some validity to his offense and power, but we don’t really know how much. His true power/hit tool level has yet to be graded against age-appropriate competition. He’s a third baseman, but I have doubts he’ll stick there long term, making the bat essential to his value. I do think he grades higher than Florentino, as Gray has better results and some indication of legitimate hitting tools.

In a move for Miller, the Pirates might have to give up two of these players. In any move for an impact addition, they’d have to give up one.

The next tier down would include top 100 contenders, and those inside the top 10 of the Pirates’ system.

Lonnie White Jr. and Wyatt Sanford are the only two who stand out to me. You could make an argument for Jhostynxon Garcia or Khristian Curtis.

White has started showing his abilities in Altoona, carrying over his power production to a higher level and a more neutral environment than Greensboro. I have reservations about Sanford, as his power has been boosted by Greensboro. My reservations for White are the injury concerns, though he’s healthy this season, and hopefully has that behind him.

Garcia and Curtis run the risk of lower upsides. Garcia might only be a fourth outfielder at best, and Curtis might only be a power reliever. I could see a path to Garcia starting, and I could see a path to Curtis being in the rotation or being a late inning guy. They’re some of the best prospects in the system, but they’re not top 100 guys, and at best, they’re secondary pieces in a big trade.

Beyond those players, the Pirates have a lot of depth options who profile safest as MLB bench players or relievers. I also discount the A-ball players, especially in Greensboro, as their abilities are hard to read with those park factors.

Some team might want to take a chance on a rebound for an upper-level former top pick like Termarr Johnson.

Another team might see more upside in an upper-level prospect like Connor Wietgrefe or Duce Gourson.

Teams could have their own lower-level priorities. I highlighted Sanford above, but if you wanted to elevate Richard Ramirez, Yordany De Los Santos, Eddie Rynders, or others in the lower levels, I wouldn’t argue. And maybe other teams have their own preferences, like Easton Carmichael, Levi Sterling, or Jhonny Severino.

There are wild cards in the lowest levels. Bralyn Brazoban has been one of my favorite stories as a top international signing who is starting to discover his power. Carlos Mateo has horrible control, historically speaking, but one of the best fastballs in the system, and his control is starting to show signs of improvement. At best, these guys are third pieces in a bigger deal.

It all comes down to preference.

If the Pirates are trading with the Padres, the only thing that matters is how the Padres see the prospects in the Pirates’ system.

The Pirates would have to agree on the overall value package. Maybe the Padres would think Florentino or Gray would be enough to headline a deal. Maybe the Padres would need both and more, and I’d probably make that move for Miller. Maybe the Pirates wouldn’t.

The only prospect rankings that matter are the untouchables.

Hernandez.

That’s the only prospect the Pirates shouldn’t trade.

And, Valdez, if you want to include him as a prospect.

Beyond that, winning in 2026 is far more important than hoping for results from a prospect in 2028 and beyond.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams

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Their pitching staff has been lagging behind.

Overall, the Pirates pitchers rank 8th in fWAR. Their team ERA ranks 20th, while their team FIP ranks 11th. The difference is due to poor fielding, which is one of the sacrifices the Pirates made across the board for a better offense.

Starting pitching leads the way for the Pirates. The rotation has a 9.8 WAR, ranking fifth. Their ERA is 12th and FIP is 5th, again displaying the impact of poor defense.

Problems emerge with this team once you get to the bullpen. The Pirates rank 19th in relief pitching WAR. Fielding isn’t playing an impact with the relievers. The ERA ranks 23rd, with the FIP 21st.

The Pirates need pitching help. Bullpen help, to be precise.

Yesterday, I broke down what was working with the offense. Today, I’m taking a detailed look at the pitching.

The Starting Rotation

Paul Skenes
Rank: 7th / 134 SP w/50+ IP
Stats: 3.57 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 1.99 BB/9, 108.1 IP

Skenes is having a down year, relative to his Rookie of the Year and Cy Young results in his first two seasons. That perspective is needed. It’s not that Skenes is having a bad year by any measure. He just set the bar so high at the start of his career that any struggles and even above-average results will bring on doomsday fears.

In 20 starts, Skenes has a 3.57 ERA, a 2.88 FIP, a 10.8 K/9, and a 1.99 BB/9 in 108.1 innings. His numbers aren’t bad below the surface, and his FIP shows he’s been negatively impacted by the defense. He allows the lowest exit velocity in the rotation, the second-lowest barrel rate, and the second-lowest hard hit rate.

The last two seasons have shown that there’s another level for Skenes, where he pitches among the best in the game. The defense this season might not allow that down the stretch. Even without the defensive impact, Skenes isn’t getting hit hard, he’s putting up good secondary numbers, and even in a down year, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. Maybe he can challenge for the number one spot in the second half.

Braxton Ashcraft
Rank: 12th / 134
Stats: 3.49 ERA, 10.16 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 113.1 IP

Ashcraft represents the other side of the Skenes perspective. The numbers between the two are almost identical. Ashcraft has an edge in some areas, and Skenes has an edge in others. The season from Ashcraft isn’t regarded as disappointing, and doesn’t draw concern. That’s because Ashcraft is exceeding pre-season expectations, versus Skenes ending up below the high bar he set the last two years.

The defense has less of an impact on Ashcraft than Skenes, which means it’s unlikely Ashcraft has a path toward improvement in the second half. He really doesn’t need it. What Ashcraft has been doing this year has helped lead the Pirates to their overall pitching success. They might not have the very best pitcher in the game this year, but they have two of the top twelve starters. Only the Phillies are better, with two in the top six.

Ashcraft does come with one minor concern: Innings. He’s at 113.1 innings this year. He combined for 118 last year between Triple-A and the MLB bullpen. His 2024 season had 73 innings in his first full season back from Tommy John. He never pitched more than 53 innings in a season before that. We’re starting to enter uncharted territory with Ashcraft as a starter.

Mitch Keller
Rank: 78th / 134
Stats: 5.14 ERA, 6.71 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 103.1 IP

Keller’s performance is where the Pirates are hurt the most in the rotation this year. He’s never been one of the best pitchers in the game, but Keller has been one of the most reliable pitchers. His results the last four seasons were league-average or better, with around 177 innings per season.

This year, Keller is covering innings, but his results are well below average. Some of that is due to the defense behind him, but even his FIP has declined. His walk rate is up a bit, while the strikeouts are down to a career-low. The latter isn’t good, as it puts more emphasis on the defense that drives his ERA higher.

In the past, Keller has been a better pitcher in the first half. His career ERA has been 4.30 in the first half, 5.04 in the second half, and August has been his worst month with a 5.90 ERA. The Pirates need him to reverse the trend this year, having a good second half after struggling in the first half.

Bubba Chandler
Rank: 90th / 134
Stats: 4.85 ERA, 7.89 K/9, 5.36 BB/9, 89.0 IP

One hundred and twenty five point two innings. That’s what I want to highlight about Chandler. Immediate results from guys like Skenes and Ashcraft are rare. Most pitchers need a few hundred innings in the big leagues before they begin to settle. Chandler has 125.2 innings in his career.

Most of those innings have come this season. His strikeout rate is down compared to his limited results last year, and lower than any level in the minors. His walk rate has significantly increased, going higher than any season outside of his pro debut in 2022. What I find interesting is Chandler has the lowest hard hit rate in the rotation, third-lowest barrel rate to Skenes and Ashcraft, and the second lowest exit velocity to Skenes.

Chandler is a wild card. I don’t think he should be expected to arrive in the majors and pitch his first full season without struggles. He needs to cut down on walks and increase the strikeouts. Opponents aren’t hitting him hard, which is encouraging. If that trend continues, and if his K/BB ratios improve, he could provide a boost in the second half.

Jared Jones
Rank: Unqualified
Stats: 4.37 ERA, 10.03 K/9, 2.83 BB/9, 35.0 IP

Jones is returning from an elbow injury, and has arguably been the third-best pitcher in the rotation since his return. There are innings limit concerns. Jones didn’t require Tommy John, but the Pirates are easing him back into the rotation. His final start before the break saw six perfect innings, but he’s been limited to five or less in every other start, with most starts limited to four innings.

The Pirates have been splitting Jones with Carmen Mlodzinski, who he replaced in the rotation. This allows them to start Jones with a reduced inning workload. The downside is that it limits Mlodzinski to a very specific role, which overlooks the fact he’s one of the better relievers in the bullpen.

Jones is showing why the Pirates gave him the rotation spot. He will have some innings concerns, but gives the Pirates a great number three option to Skenes and Ashcraft in the second half.

Long Relief

Carmen Mlodzinski
Stats: 3.24 ERA, 7.14 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 80.2 IP

There was a lot of controversy with the way the Pirates handled Mlodzinski when Jones returned. Part of that was due to Mlodzinski not wanting to move out of the rotation. Mlodzinski was one of the best performers in the rotation, but was moved to the bullpen with the Pirates betting on the upside of Jones. The long-relief role given to Mlodzinski limited his ability to be used in leverage situations. His current role almost wastes one of the better pitchers on the roster with very specific usage that can’t possibly predict when one of the better pitchers would be needed.

It doesn’t matter the role, Mlodzinski has been one of the best performers. He had a 4.30 ERA in the rotation, which is around league average. That’s about what Jones has put up as his replacement. Jones is more likely to put up better numbers going forward with his dominant strikeout rates. As a reliever, Mlodzinski has a 1.96 ERA in 36.2 innings. The difference is largely that his relief outings were cutting his usage short from when he was most susceptible to damage, which was the third time through the order.

The Pirates have decoupled Mlodzinski from pitching when Jones throws, using him as a multi-inning reliever about every 4-5 days. What’s interesting about this usage is that Mlodzinski’s rotation gives him a different starter each time. His last seven appearances, highlighting the starters in that game: Ashcraft, Skenes, Jones, Keller, Ashcraft, Skenes, Jones. That’s starting to form a pattern.

While this role doesn’t guarantee Mlodzinski will always pitch in leverage situations, it does cut down on innings across the rotation. The Pirates don’t necessarily need 6-7 innings from their starters every time out to ensure a lead gets carried into the 9th inning. They can turn to Mlodzinski for 2-3 innings to continue shutting down the opposing team, while giving each starter a break once or twice a month.

This does raise the issue of what happens when Mlodzinski turns the ball over to the bullpen…

The Bullpen

Gregory Soto
Rank: 78th / 242 RP w/20+ IP
Stats: 4.05 ERA, 9.90 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 40.0 IP

The Pirates signed Soto to a one-year deal this offseason, helping to replace all the relievers they traded away last year. Soto has been a good addition, but he’d play better in a setup role. The Pirates have been forced to use him as a closer, due to the struggles from the rest of the bullpen.

Soto is putting up numbers similar to last season, though he’s not matching his All-Star performances from earlier in his career. He has one of the best strikeout rates of his career. His walk rate has increased from last season. The biggest standout is his batting average against is the lowest of his career.

If the Pirates could add a legitimate closer, Soto could be moved to a better role as a leverage reliever who isn’t stuck to the ninth inning.

Dennis Santana
Rank: 211th / 242
Stats: 5.80 ERA, 8.26 K/9, 4.69 BB/9, 40.1 IP

The Pirates were banking on Santana to be their closer after trading David Bednar last year at the deadline. Santana had a good season in 2025, with a 2.18 ERA in 70 appearances. However, this was a career-best season, and what he’s done this season is more in-line with what he’s done previously in his career.

Santana’s strikeout rate has dropped to his lowest percentage since 2021. His walk rate has gone up, after previously dropping to single-digit percentages the last two years with the Pirates. The Pirates originally got Santana as a waiver claim in 2024, and he quickly became one of their better relievers the last two years. They may have pushed for too much from him by expecting him to be their best reliever this year.

Whatever the Pirates get from Santana down the stretch would be a bonus. He’s a free agent at the end of the season, so it’s also possible they could cut ties with him if he doesn’t bounce back.

Evan Sisk
Rank: 46th / 242
Stats: 2.23 ERA, 10.65 K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 36.1 IP

One year ago at the deadline, the Pirates added Sisk for Bailey Falter, which was one of their better moves. Sisk has become their best reliever this season, in the first full MLB season for the 29-year-old reliever. He ranks second among Pirates relievers in strikeout rate, while having one of the lowest walk rates, only beat by Mlodzinski.

Sisk is currently on the injured list with left elbow inflammation, which isn’t good. There’s no word yet on whether he could return this season. The Pirates have already added a potential left-handed relief replacement, which doesn’t speak well to an immediate return.

This might be a good story for the first half. Sisk is a reliever to hopefully look forward to in 2027, but it seems the Pirates might not be counting on much from him the rest of the year.

Mason Montgomery
Rank: 59th / 242
Stats: 4.64 ERA, 13.09 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, 33.0 IP

One of the best trades the Pirates have made in years was sending out Mike Burrows and getting Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum, and Montgomery in return. Lowe is putting up one of the best seasons of his career, Mangum is a contending-level fourth outfielder who has stepped up when injuries hit, and Montgomery is arguably the most electric reliever the Pirates have.

Control has been the biggest issue for Montgomery, but he’s showing improvements this year. His walk rate went from 12.9% last year to 10.8% this year. The strikeout rate has increased from 30.1% to 34.8% during that time. He ranks 10th overall in strikeout percentage out of 242 relievers with 20+ innings. The relievers ahead of him are among the best in the game.

Montgomery might end up being the best reliever the Pirates have by the end of the year. That’s a good thing, as they have four remaining years of control. For this season, he’s one of few reliable arms in the late innings.

Yohan Ramirez
Rank: 130th / 242
Stats: 3.31 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 51.2 IP

Ramirez has provided value for the Pirates by covering a lot of middle inning relief work with good numbers. This is the best season he’s had since 2021, despite the worst control since his rookie season. He’s allowing a .203 average against, which is the lowest total since 2021. That helps to offset the walks, and his strikeout rate is one of the better numbers of his career.

The Pirates need reliable middle relievers to help get the ball to the late innings when Mlodzinski isn’t doing his multi-inning role. Ramirez is one of the better options who has emerged this season for that middle relief help. He’s done all of this while having the second-highest leverage index on the team, one spot behind Soto.

I don’t know how long the Pirates can rely on Ramirez to keep producing these results. That tends to be the case with most middle relievers. He also has a concern that he’s pitched more innings and more games than any previous MLB season. Continued success from him should be seen as a bonus.

Isaac Mattson
Rank: 132nd / 242
Stats: 4.40 ERA, 7.63 K/9, 4.11 BB/9, 30.2 IP

Out of all Pirates relief pitching depth options, Mattson has been one of few who has done well enough to stay in the Majors. His results have taken a drop from last season, when he had a 2.45 ERA in 44 appearances. Part of that is due to a drop in strikeouts, an uptick in walks, and an average that has gone from .198 to .252.

At best, Mattson is an average reliever. He’s not going to be a guy who can be depended on in higher leverage situations, but he’s also not a guy who is going to blow a lot of games. He actually ranks second on the team in holds, one hold behind Montgomery.

The Pirates haven’t seen a depth option emerge as an above-average reliever. The best they have is Mattson, who is doing enough to warrant continued usage in the big leagues.

Brandon Eisert
Rank: 173rd / 242
Stats: 5.25 ERA, 9.75 K/9, 3.75 BB/9, 24.0 IP

Eisert was added to the roster when the Pirates traded the 34th overall pick to the White Sox. The trade patched two second-half depth spots in the big leagues, adding Jacob Gonzalez to replace Konnor Griffin, and adding Eisert with Sisk on the injured list.

The results from Eisert show that he’s more of a depth option than a reliever the Pirates can rely upon to help improve the bullpen. His numbers have declined since his first full MLB season last year. If the Pirates could get him back to that 4.39 ERA, he wouldn’t be a bad middle relief option.

There is hope Eisert could improve to that level. His strikeout and walk rates are similar to last year, and his average against has improved. He’s been hurt the most by the long ball, but PNC Park could help him out. He could end up in the Ramirez/Mattson tier if he can get back on track.

Wilber Dotel
Rank: Unqualified
Stats: 5.89 ERA, 9.33 K/9, 4.42 BB/9, 18.1 IP

Dotel is rehabbing in the minors, and offers the Pirates a potential second long-reliever to pair with Mlodzinski. His numbers are inflated by ten earned runs in 1.2 innings across two appearances right before he went on the injured list. Prior to those outings in early June, he was a nice surprise, allowing two runs in 16.2 innings.

Most of those appearances came in 3-4 inning outings. He didn’t allow a single run in his long-relief work. The Pirates have been rehabbing him in multi-inning spots, currently throwing two innings per appearance. He could have a few more outings in the minors before he’s ready to return.

When Dotel does return, he could become the second long-relief option, which could allow for the Pirates to ease their innings limit concerns in the rotation down the stretch.

Pitching Analysis

The Pirates’ rotation is still a strength. The potential upside would be Skenes returning to one of the very best in the game over his final dozen starts. Chandler also has some breakout potential in the second half. The risk is with the innings totals for guys like Ashcraft and Jones.

Keller is the biggest wild card. If the Pirates can get league-average numbers from him again, they’d get a boost that could push them to one of the best rotations in the game, while easing inning concerns in the bullpen.

If there’s one area where the Pirates need trade deadline help, it’s the bullpen. Despite having one of the worst bullpens in the game, they’re not far from having a positive group. This isn’t a bullpen that needs 2-3 additions. One big reliever could have a trickle-down effect.

Mason Miller is on everyone’s dream list. Adding a shutdown reliever like that would push Soto into leverage situations, unbounded by the ninth inning. Montgomery adds a second high-leverage reliever who the Pirates can start to depend upon.

Mlodzinski and Dotel give the Pirates multi-inning middle relievers who can help save the rotation’s innings down the stretch. Ramirez, Mattson, and possibly Eisert could help the single-inning middle relief situations. Anything from Santana would be a bonus.

I didn’t write about the minor league depth on the offensive side in yesterday’s article. Part of that is because they’ve already tapped into and nearly maxed out that depth, with the second half depth coming from returns off the injured list.

The pitching does have some depth in the minors. Khristian Curtis is the biggest wild card prospect in my view. He’s currently a starter with one of the best strikeout rates in the system, and one of the better fastballs. He could be a sleeper in a short-term relief role.

The Pirates have turned to Hunter Stratton, Thomas Harrington, Antwone Kelly, Brandan Bidois, and Noah Murdock in the first half. Stratton would be the best of this group if he can return to the old form he had with the Pirates.

Jose Urquidy started the season in Pittsburgh and struggled in relief. He has since been one of the better pitchers in Triple-A, with a 2.75 ERA in 52.1 innings over his last ten starts. He could be another option for relief help, especially if the Pirates go heavier on the long inning middle relief roles.

The Pirates might be sitting in a Wild Card spot right now, instead of two games out of the race, had the pitching been better in the first half.

Those first half results showed the need for bullpen help at the deadline, along with the hope of the rotation reaching a higher bar down the stretch.

Prospects will be needed to get the bullpen help for the Pirates.

I’ll be reviewing the prospect depth tomorrow in part three of this series…

-Tim Williams

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They sit 9.5 games back in the NL Central behind the Milwaukee Brewers, but finished on a high note by sweeping the Brewers heading into the break.

They’re two games back in the NL Wild Card race, with four teams ahead of them batting for three spots.

All of this is unexpected from a team that was one of the worst in the game last season, on so many levels.

One area where the Pirates were one of the worst in the game was their offense. They’ve done a complete 180 this season, which has led to this turnaround.

Today, I’m going to look at the Pirates’ offense, breaking down what was working so well in the first half, along with the outlook in the second half.

Catcher

League Rank: 12th

Starters: Endy Rodriguez/Henry Davis

The Pirates don’t have a bad catching duo. Henry Davis has stepped up as one of the better rated defensive catchers in the game, despite hitting below the Mendoza line. Endy Rodriguez brings the offensive value, but hasn’t been nearly as valuable on defense.

Combined, they help make up the 12th best unit in the game, ranking in the top half in both offense and defensive runs. Davis ranks 22nd out of 101 catchers in defensive runs, while Rodriguez ranks 12th in offensive runs among the same group.

Rodriguez is currently injured, which means the Pirates are looking at Rafael Flores Jr. as the backup to Davis.

First Base

League Rank: 10th

Starters: Spencer Horwitz/Ryan O’Hearn

The Pirates have the tenth best first base group, and that’s largely fueled by offense. Spencer Horwitz and Ryan O’Hearn both get time at the position. Horwitz has played 560 innings this season, while O’Hearn has 218 innings, getting more time in right field.

Both players had an offensive breakout in 2025, and both are repeating those numbers in 2026. O’Hearn has actually been better this season. At the break, he’s one shy of his career-high home run total last year, with an OPS that has gone from .803 to .838. Horwitz is two shy of his career-high in home runs, and has his best OPS of his career at .842.

The Pirates are currently without Horwitz, expecting to get him back after the All-Star break. The benefit they have is O’Hearn provides incredible depth, allowing them to maintain offensive output even with their starter down. For years, the Pirates have been without a good first baseman. Now, they have two above-average options.

Second Base

League Rank: 5th

Starter: Brandon Lowe

Can you say All-Star snub? Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates to the fifth best results at second base in the entire game. Unfortunately for him, the top four were all National League teams. So perhaps it’s less of an All-Star snub and more an unfortunate time for Lowe to have one of his best career seasons.

With his next home run, Lowe will set the Pirates’ record for most home runs hit by a second baseman, previously held by Neil Walker. He’s not only putting up the best offensive numbers since 2021, but his defensive production has been the best of his career.

Lowe is a free agent at the end of the season, and he’s definitely playing himself into a big final contract at this rate.

Shortstop

League Rank: 12th

Starter: Jared Triolo

This is where the Pirates run into problems. Their 12th-best shortstop ranking is due to Konnor Griffin. The rookie’s value is driven by offense, which includes the best base running results in the entire game. Unfortunately, Griffin is on the 60-day IL, and might return in September.

Jared Triolo is his replacement. Triolo offers better defense, but a huge drop in offensive value will take the Pirates from an above-average situation to a position where they’re just getting by.

The Pirates did just trade for Jacob Gonzalez, who has spent time at shortstop. Gonzalez had a power breakout this season in Triple-A, which came in a hitter-friendly park. He’ll get some time over the next two months to show how much of that power was legit as he fills in for Griffin with Triolo.

Third Base

League Rank: 12th

Starter: Nick Gonzales

This might be the most surprising result of the Pirates’ season. Nick Gonzales is batting .308/.370/.391, with his bat leading the Pirates to above-average results at third base. The defense is a downgrade over what the Pirates previously had with two-time Gold Glove winner Ke’Bryan Hayes. Despite the defensive downgrade, Gonzales is an overall upgrade.

Out of 23 qualified third basemen, Gonzales has the 10th best offensive output. There’s very little power, but he’s starting to look like the pure-hitter the Pirates were hoping for when they took him seventh overall in 2020. His defense, while a downgrade from Hayes, does rank 15th out of 23 third basemen. The combined result makes him the tenth-best third baseman in the league.

It might not be a surprise that Lowe, O’Hearn, or Horwitz are having great seasons. It’s definitely unexpected that Gonzales has stepped up to this level. The Pirates will need this production in the second half to help deal with injuries.

Outfield

League Rank: 2nd

Current Starters: Bryan Reynolds / Jake Mangum / Esmerlyn Valdez

Healthy Starters: Bryan Reynolds / Oneil Cruz / Ryan O’Hearn

I didn’t have this on my scorecard entering the season. The Pirates outfield group is second worst in the game defensively, which is something I did expect. However, their offense has been the best in the game, and that has persisted even through injuries to key players.

Oneil Cruz went down with an injury, and O’Hearn went to first base to replace the injured Horwitz. In their absence, Esmerlyn Valdez has stepped up in a big way, with his first 105 plate appearances putting him in some Rookie of the Year discussions. Jake Mangum is batting .310 and getting on base at a .364 rate, while upgrading the center field defense over Cruz. The Pirates are even getting decent results from Tyler Callihan off the bench.

Meanwhile, Bryan Reynolds is having one of the best seasons of his career. Reynolds had a 1.1 fWAR last season, with a .720 OPS. His .878 OPS this year is his best result since his breakout season in 2021, with his best power numbers since 2023. He also has robbed several home runs, getting more comfortable in left field. The improvement has led to a 2.9 fWAR already this season.

Reynolds improving this much has arguably been just as big of an upgrade as the additions of Lowe or O’Hearn. The production from Cruz, O‘Hearn, and Valdez and Mangum in their absence from the outfield group, gives the Pirates one of the best outfields in the game.

This also will create some questions in the second half, which brings me to…

Designated Hitter

League Rank: 26th

Starter: Marcell Ozuna

One are of the offense that hasn’t been working out has been the addition of Marcell Ozuna. The Pirates’ designated hitter ranks 26th of 27 MLB players in the DH role with 250+ plate appearances. He’s batting .205/.288/.335.

The offense from Ozuna has gotten better lately. In the last 30 days, he’s hitting .270/.357/.514 with three home runs in 42 plate appearances. However, the Pirates will be left with a decision when Cruz and Horwitz return from injuries.

Horwitz will push O’Hearn back to the outfield, and Cruz will combine to push Mangum and Valdez to the bench. The Pirates could opt to split Horwitz and O’Hearn between first base and DH in order to keep Valdez in the lineup, but that would push Ozuna to the bench.

That would be the best approach. While Ozuna has been playing better lately, the best lineup right now includes Horwitz, O’Hearn, and Valdez, with Mangum as a strong fourth outfield option. The Pirates can’t get that lineup without benching Ozuna. His salary is a sunk cost that shouldn’t determine the best Pirates’ offensive group going forward.

Offensive Upgrades

The Pirates went from one of the worst offenses in the game last year to having the most runs scored in the game at the All-Star break. That’s a massive upgrade, and it deserves credit.

Ben Cherington did a good job in bringing in Lowe, O’Hearn, and even Mangum as a valuable depth option. Even if Ozuna has struggled, the overall additions have fueled this offensive revolution.

Matt Hague deserves some credit. In his second year as hitting coach, Hague has overseen some of the best career offensive seasons from returning players like Reynolds, Gonzales, and Cruz.

Young rookies like Griffin and Valdez have come up to immediately hit, which is partial credit to Hague and partial credit to the development process that sped both hitters through the system.

The most credit goes to the players themselves. Nearly every hitter on the roster is putting up career-best results. It’s unfortunate that the Pirates need this level of success just to stay on the outside of the playoff race. But pitching is more the issue of why the Pirates don’t have a better record right now.

Pitching

My next article will detail the results from the pitching staff, including one of the biggest areas of need at the trade deadline: The Bullpen.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams

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Wietgrefe, the Pitcher of the Week, made two starts, including an eight-inning one hit shutout. He combined for one earned run in 13 innings, striking out ten and only allowing six hits. The lefty had a rough first two starts in his jump to Triple-A, but looked much better last week.

The Pirates drafted Wietgrefe in the seventh round in 2024. He’s been one of the better pitching stories this year. After a 3.17 ERA in 108 innings with Greensboro last season, Wietgrefe posted a 3.51 ERA in 66.2 innings for Altoona this year. The Pirates promoted him to Triple-A in mid-June. More performances like last week could get him a call to the Majors over the next year.

Garcia, the Batter of the Week, went 10-for-21 with two doubles, a home run, and two stolen bases. The home run was his sixth of the season for Indianapolis. He’s been on fire lately, batting .485/.595/.667 across his last ten games. He also has an active eight-game hitting streak, showing good all-around hitting during this stretch.

His brief appearance in the Majors didn’t go well, with a .200 average and a .472 OPS in 37 plate appearances. Garcia has been improving his numbers in Triple-A lately, and could be a reliable depth option in the second half if the Pirates keep getting bit by the injury bug.

Individual Level Standouts

Indianapolis swept the weekly awards this time around. Here’s who stood out at the other levels.

Altoona Pitcher: Kyle Robinson

Stats: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 0 HR

Robinson made his second start since being promoted to Altoona, and it was a good one. The right-hander allowed one run in six innings, striking out six. His numbers in Greensboro produced some elevated results due to the home-park factor, but he showed some promise on the road. I’m looking forward to seeing what he does in Altoona the rest of the year.

Altoona Batter: Will Taylor

Stats: 6-for-21, 5 R, 2B, 2 3B, 4 RBI, 2 SB, 3 BB

Taylor reached base safely in all six games last week, while adding two stolen bases. He now has 17 steals on the season, after setting a career high of 23 last year. His power results have dropped in the jump to Double-A, but that wasn’t the case this week. He hit two triples, doubling his career total, while adding a double.

Greensboro Pitcher: Hung-Leng Chang

Stats: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR

Chang has split time between the rotation and bullpen in Greensboro this year. He had one of his better outings this past week, allowing one run in six innings. That’s even more impressive when considering the monster offensive numbers that have been put up by both teams the last few weeks.

Greensboro Batter: Sammy Stafura

Stats: 5-for-22, 5 R, 4 HR, 10 RBI, SB, BB

For the second week in a row, Stafura hit a home run in four straight games. His streaks led to eight home runs across a nine game stretch. He only had one other hit this week, but the home runs did some damage. In his last ten games he’s batting .391/.388/.978 with 26 RBIs thanks to those eight home runs. He’s up to 13 homers on the season, with 11 in Greensboro. Not all of those home runs were a result of the offensive environment. A few of them were monster shots that would have been home runs anywhere. Stafura will be an interesting guy to watch the next time Greensboro goes on the road.

Bradenton Pitcher: Reinold Navarro

Stats: 5.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, 0 HR

Navarro keeps standing out as the best pitcher in Bradenton, and one of the best in the organization. He struck out eight batters for the third start in a row. In his last ten starts, he has a 1.18 ERA in 38 innings, while striking out 66. Control is a problem, with 32 walks in this span. Navarro is 19-years-old, striking out nearly two batters an inning, with three pitches producing a whiff rate of 40% or higher, and the best fastball in the system. The control is the only thing keeping him from being one of the best prospects in the game.

Bradenton Batter: Richard Ramirez

Stats: 8-for-17, 3 R, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Ramirez has had a few good weeks in Bradenton, coming up with some clutch hits, while hitting four homers in his last ten games. He hit two last week, along with three doubles. The catcher, who has some of the best defense in the system behind the plate, is batting .372/.400/.767 in his last ten games.

FCL Pirates Pitcher: Tony Gonzalez

Stats: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HR

Gonzalez was moved up from the DSL last month, and made his fourth appearance in the FCL this past week. He threw 2.1 innings and struck out six batters out of the seven outs recorded. The 2025 international signing has some control problems, but has put up a strikeout rate over 32% at both levels this season. In a limited sample in the FCL, his slider is doing the work, generating a 57.1% whiff rate on a small sample of recorded pitches.

FCL Pirates Batter: Francisco Loreto

Stats: 6-for-9, 4 R, 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, SB

Loreto hit two home runs last week, which extends his season total to five, matching last year’s career high. The Pirates got him in a trade in the offseason for Chase Shugart. The 18-year-old catcher is in his second season in the FCL, putting up much better numbers. He’s gone from a .728 OPS to .953, with an increase in power and walks, but also an increase in strikeouts. He has a 1.262 OPS in his last ten games, with four home runs.

DSL Pirates Pitcher: Yhosneiber Torres

Stats: 4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 0 HR

Torres was signed last year, and is in his second season pitching as a starter in the DSL. His numbers have improved from a 6.53 ERA last season to a 3.05 ERA this year. His strikeout rate is the same, and his walks have increased. The improvement for the 17-year-old has come from a lowered average, going from .314 to .192.

DSL Pirates Batter: Wilton Guerrero Jr.

Stats: 9-for-15, 6 R, 2 2B, 5 RBI, 3 SB, 3 BB

The top international signing by the Pirates this year had one of his best weeks. After hitting two doubles and stealing three bases, Guerrero has a .321/.409/.420 line on the season. He’s up to nine steals and six doubles, with the latter tied for the lead among Pirates DSL hitters.

One More Report

I’ve written about Levi Sterling before, but I wanted to highlight the start he had on Sunday.

Sterling pitched five innings with one earned run allowed, while striking out nine batters. This was the third time this season he’s struck out nine batters in a start, which has helped to a 25.7% strikeout rate this year.

The Pirates drafted Sterling with the 37th overall pick in 2024 out of high school. This is his first full season, after pitching in the short-season FCL last year in his pro debut. There have been some rough starts, but Sterling shows promise.

His fastball only sits 92-94 MPH, but he has five other pitches that he throws, with four of his pitches having a 30% whiff rate or higher. The best secondary pitch is a mid-80s slider with a 34.9% recorded whiff rate. His low-80s curveball gets a 33.9% whiff rate.

I’d expect Sterling to remain in Bradenton the rest of the season, allowing him to put together starts like this outing on a more consistent basis. The 19-year-old has some promise with an advanced pitch mix and good control. This past start was an example of what happens when everything is clicking for him.

Until the next time I go live…

-Tim Williams

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The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Tony Sanchez with the fourth overall pick.

For an organization that passed on Matt Wieters two years earlier to draft Daniel Moskos, having a fairly new General Manager go the signability route with Sanchez sent Pirates fans into an uproar.

What happened next was something the Pirates hadn’t seen. They went over-slot on their day two and day three picks, drafting hard-to-sign, projectable prep players. They saved money on Sanchez, but they added players who could potentially break out by getting them into the system early.

None of those 2009 prep players did break out, and it’s important to note the Pirates’ scouting department had yet to be overhauled by Neal Huntington.

Scouting and Draft Changes

By 2011, Huntington had replaced most of the scouting department with people who would lead to improved results, at least on the pitching side. The Pirates not only went with a big bonus pitcher in Gerrit Cole at the top of the 2011 draft, but they also went heavy over slot on prep players like Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow, and Clay Holmes. Bell was a gift that fell to them, but Glasnow and Holmes were great cases of identifying and later developing up raw talent.

The decision process that led to that 2009 draft may have been better if the Pirates had a better scouting department. Maybe they identify different players for the upside picks. Maybe they take someone other than Sanchez. And the changes to the development process over the next few years might have also contributed to the results from Glasnow and Holmes.

MLB changed the draft after 2011, in large part because the big market Pirates exploited a way to outspend the Red Sox on players like Bell. Starting in 2012, teams were restricted from spending over their bonus pool.

Bonus pools were calculated by the slot values of the top ten round picks. You could go under-slot on any pick and use the extra money to go over-slot on another pick. You could also go up to 5% over your bonus pool without losing a draft pick, paying a 75% fine on the 0-5% overage. But you could no longer spend whatever you wanted without harsh penalties eventually crashing down.

To their credit, the Pirates never went considerably under-slot in the first round after the 2009 debacle. They saved a few hundred thousand on some first rounders, but they never went millions below slot to follow the same pattern as 2009.

That changed in 2021.

The Last Rebuild

Ben Cherington was in his second year as General Manager, and the Pirates were entering a rebuild. It was the exact same scenario as Huntington in 2009. Year two of a new General Manager. Massive roster selloff. The Pirates had a top four pick. This time they went first overall. Again, they went under-slot on a college catcher.

You could almost feel like this was a simulation. Or, a horribly disguised ruse.

The Pirates drafted Henry Davis and saved nearly $2 million. They repeated the 2009 approach by spending the extra money on middle round picks like Anthony Solometo (37th overall), Lonnie White Jr. (64th overall), and Bubba Chandler (72nd overall).

It’s too early to give a defining grade to that draft. The results have already been considerably better than 2009, and a lot of the scouts who oversaw that draft were people brought in during Huntington’s overhaul from 2009-2012.

Davis isn’t exactly a bust, but he’s nowhere close to what the Pirates were hoping to get. Instead of a power hitting catcher with questions about his defense, Davis has turned into a good defender who can’t hit, outside of power that is limited by his .157 average. He’s replacement level this year, after being below-replacement in previous seasons. This is his age 26 season, so he’s reaching the point where mass improvements are unlikely.

Chandler is the example that works to justify the over-slot approach in the middle rounds. He’s shown promise in his limited experience in the Majors, with a combined 4.58 ERA, including a 4.77 ERA this season. The 23-year-old shows flashes of being a considerably better pitcher than he is right now, and it’s common for pitchers to take a few hundred innings in the Majors before things really click. He’s at 125 right now, after about a year combined in the big leagues.

White is the wild card right now. After years of injuries, he’s finally healthy and hitting for power. The power surge started in the hitter-friendly Greensboro environment, but has carried over to Double-A for most of the first half of the season. He’s still 23, so there’s time for him to develop in the upper levels and see if he can add another piece to the big league roster.

I would argue that the approach in 2021 doesn’t look great. The justification for taking Davis largely rests on Chandler. However, if Chandler was the first overall pick, putting up these same numbers, there would be concerns about the quality of the draft.

Chandler gets some leeway due to being drafted in the third round, where expectations are lower.

Meanwhile, Davis is considered a disappointment as a replacement level catcher because he was taken first overall.

How Often Do the Pirates Go Under-Slot?

Expectations can often be unfair, and they cloud a lot of the MLB draft process.

The expectation for a first rounder, especially one in the top five picks, is that you land a potential impact guy. When the top pick turns out to be replacement level, that’s extremely disappointing relative to expectations. And when the justification for lowering your odds with the top pick is getting more value in the middle rounds, you raise expectations in a way for those picks.

Chandler won’t justify going under-slot at first overall in 2021. Chandler and White providing value might justify the decision to essentially trade down to improve the early middle rounds.

The Pirates haven’t gone back to this approach since 2021. All of Cherington’s first round picks have been slot or higher. They’ve had some over-slot picks while paying slot in the first round, which brings up the argument that they could have gone with a slot pick in 2021 while also creating enough money for Chandler.

I had a theory on draft day that the Pirates could be going back to an under-slot approach in 2026.

When the Pirates drafted Derek Curiel fifth overall on Saturday, my immediate thought was that they might be saving money again for middle rounders. Curiel wasn’t rated inside the top ten, and was the first pick after a consensus top four went off the board.

It’s possible that the Pirates like Curiel enough to offer him slot, and it’s possible his defensive value, hit tool, and speed could warrant close to the number five price.

The Pirates took a similar approach in 2015. They drafted Kevin Newman with their first round pick and gave him about $100,000 below slot. The difference here is that Newman was drafted 19th overall. Selecting a no-power, contact heavy middle infielder at 19 is massively different than going with the same hit-over-power, premium defensive value player at fifth overall.

In 2015, the Pirates didn’t have any players who went considerably over slot. The only prep player they drafted was Ke’Bryan Hayes, who received the full slot amount at pick 32. The Pirates didn’t even spend their full pool amount in 2015, despite signing 27 of their top 30 picks, with only two prep picks in the later rounds left unsigned.

This year, the Pirates didn’t really draft in a way that makes you think they’re going with a 2009/2021 approach of going over-slot in the middle rounds.

The more I break this down, the more my theory is killed that Curiel was an under-slot pick.

2026 Bonus Expectations

Prep shortstop Aiden Ruiz went in the second round, but with a $2.278 million slot value, it seems more likely that he was a situation similar to Hayes, where the Pirates drafted him at a spot where they wouldn’t need to go over-slot to sign him.

Chris Rembert was a college sophomore drafted at 51st overall, but again, he’s got a slot amount of nearly $2 million.

The only other top ten prep player was fourth rounder Andruw Giles. It’s possible the Pirates could need more than the $725,900 slot price to sign the young outfielder. They wouldn’t need to go millions under-slot with Curiel to make this happen.

After the tenth round, three prep players were drafted.

Spencer Evans was taken in the 11th round. The Pirates typically go over-slot on 11th rounders. They don’t usually go above the $500,000 range, and often the amount is lower. The first $150,000 for each pick after the 10th round isn’t counted against the bonus pool, so it’s likely Evans would only need a few hundred thousand in slot money at the most.

Damarcus Rideout-Carter, a right-handed pitcher drafted in the 14th round, doesn’t have a college commitment. It’s unlikely the Canadian prep pitcher would need a considerable over-slot amount to sign.

The most exciting pick of day two was Malachi Washington, an outfielder drafted in the 18th round. He’s already stated that he will be attending LSU. That could change if the Pirates decide to pay him an amount that could change his mind. But this might depend on saving enough money to get him. Realistically, I don’t think they would have saved money in the first round or even the top ten rounds to hopefully sign their 18th round pick.

Without saving any money in the top ten rounds, the Pirates have about $700,000 they could spend on over-slot picks before they would be penalized a draft pick. They would be fined on this overage amount, which would add an extra $525,000 to their $700,000 overage expenses if they spent up to the 5% limit.

Outside of the numbers, what does this mean for the 2026 Pirates draft?

The biggest thing is that I don’t think this is another 2009 or 2021 scenario.

The more apt comparison would be an earlier pick version of what the Pirates did in 2015 with Newman.

Safety Isn’t the Best Approach in the Draft

My criticism for this draft was that it followed a trend the Pirates had taken before the success of the last few years.

They went the safe route with Curiel, taking a player who projected as a good future hitter without a lot of power. This is exactly where they failed with Newman, and they’ve had similar cases where they’ve failed to develop power from a preference of hit-first prospects.

As I wrote in my day one recap, the success the last two years largely flipped that approach. The Pirates started investing in higher power grades, while gambling that the hit tool could be developed.

There’s a reason this is the better approach. Players who hit for power often have a power mindset. That’s a higher energy level that is more dominant. When a power hitter struggles to hit for average, it’s often because their approach is too aggressive. On the flip side, highly rated contact guys who don’t hit for power are often too passive.

One side is a proactive dominant approach. One side is a reactive dominant approach. The balance exists in the middle.

I don’t think it’s easy to change a mindset in either direction. I do think there’s more upside if a power mindset scales back their aggression, versus a more passive mindset finding a way to have a more dominant approach.

The leadership of the Pirates’ scouting department this year was largely the same group that oversaw the Newman pick and many other hit-over-power decisions. Granted, this group did draft Davis in 2021, so they haven’t been universally hit-over-power. Davis is a perfect example of the other side of the energy extreme.

What the 2026 draft looks like is a safe approach across the board.

The Pirates will spend enough to say they didn’t go cheap, but they won’t have much upside to show for it.

They added players who could generate immediate results in the lower levels, allowing them to hype up the early results as the college hitters are blasting home runs next year in the hitter-friendly Greensboro atmosphere.

Someone like Curiel could reach the majors faster, and provide the sense of that the immediate return means they avoided a bust, even if the upside still isn’t high.

The immediate return is what the Pirates received most in this draft.

Curiel’s skillset could lead to a quick rise to the Majors. The 34th overall pick was traded for two players who might not have long-term upside, but fill immediate depth needs. Those depth needs largely exist due to the poor job the Pirates did in the draft during the early years of Cherington’s rebuild, along with the poor trade returns from the selloff in 2021.

In a way, the 2026 draft mostly worked to quickly patch the failures from Cherington’s early drafts and initial rebuild.

What this draft seems like is a conservative approach by a front office that isn’t thinking long-term, but instead trying to find ways to get immediate help that could keep their jobs intact.

It reminds me a lot of the Dave Littlefield years, where the Pirates would often pass over high upside talent in order to take the safer, quicker to the Majors option.

I could be wrong. I haven’t fully scouted Curiel. I have said that I would have taken Eric Booth Jr. over him, opting for power with the chance to develop the hit tool. I also would have taken Drew Burress, Chris Hacopian, and even Bo Lowrance, who went 40th overall. The best outcome would have been Lowrance at 34th.

All of that is based on minimal looks at this draft, and doesn’t include my strength of listening to the players speak. That became my strength after years of interviewing hundreds of draft picks from the day they arrived in pro ball through the point some of them became some of the best Major League players in the game.

It really doesn’t matter what I think. It doesn’t matter how FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, or any other source grades these picks.

The Pirates have indicated that they had top 15 grades on each of their top three picks. This is something any team would say to justify how good they think their picks were. And it’s important to note the Pirates didn’t hire a scouting director for this draft, which makes you question how the rankings were compiled.

But it ultimately doesn’t even matter what the Pirates think.

Time tells the truth.

The Pirates were able to safely kick the can down the road. They saved around $3 million by trading the 34th overall pick for depth. They drafted safe, high-floor players who will likely give the impression of the draft being a long-term success with their short-term lower level results.

I could be wrong.

If I am, it would mark the first time this type of approach has worked for the Pirates.

And now, the signing period begins…

-Tim Williams

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